Sharp bettors, public on opposite sides of Mike Tyson-Jake Paul fight

Todd Dewey, Las Vegas Review-Journal on Nov 11, 2024

Published in Boxing

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LAS VEGAS — Mike Tyson is 58 and his last professional fight was 19 years ago.

That hasn’t stopped bettors from backing “Iron Mike” in the former world heavyweight champion’s return to the ring Friday against 27-year-old YouTuber-turned-boxer Jake Paul.

Paul is as low as a -240 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook, where 91% of the tickets and 77% of the money on the bout are on Tyson.

Known as the “The Baddest Man on the Planet” in his prime, Tyson is down to a +180 underdog after a William Hill bettor in Nevada wagered $25,000 on him at +190.

William Hill also took a $5,000 bet on Tyson to win by KO, TKO or DQ (+225). Caesars took wagers on Paul of $5,500 (-275) and $5,000 (-240).

The boxing match at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, home of the Dallas Cowboys, will be streamed live on Netflix. The sanctioned pro fight will feature eight two-minute rounds and 14-ounce gloves. It will count against Tyson’s career record of 50-6 with 44 knockouts.

The consensus total on the fight is 5 1/2 rounds, with Circa at 4 1/2 and Caesars at 6 1/2 (under -135).

“I anticipate Mike Tyson will make this fight competitive for the first four rounds where his power will be a factor. After that, I think he will be too gassed, and his age will start to show on the back half of the fight,” Caesars lead combat sports oddsmaker Brandon Yaeger said. “Jake Paul has shown that even though he’s not the most technical boxer, he does carry some power in his hands.

“With that, it leads me to believe a ref will have a short leash on the damage they will allow Tyson to take due to his age and health concerns. I’d think this could lead to a late-round stoppage by Jake Paul.”

The fight, which was originally scheduled for July 20, was postponed after Tyson had a medical scare on a May 26 flight from Miami to Los Angeles, reportedly due to an ulcer.

Tyson is +240 at Circa and +235 at the Westgate SuperBook, which has taken multiple max bets of $5,000 on Paul.

“In these types of fights, you proceed with caution. We do take smaller limits on it because we’re just not sure how serious it’s going to be,” SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “If (Paul) gets Tyson in trouble, will he back off because because he doesn’t want to hurt him?

“All the small tickets are on Tyson. The public is all on Iron Mike, but the bigger plays are on Paul. As far as educated bettors out there, I know they favor Jake Paul. But I’m not sure they have a lot of confidence in it.”

Paul has plummeted from a -330 favorite at Station Sports to -260 over Tyson (+220).

“We’re definitely seeing some Tyson money. It’s been fairly one-sided in favor of Tyson and I think the number will continue to drop,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “It’s the lure of Mike Tyson, knowing that he could win this fight with one punch.

“I know the age difference is a huge thing. But you watch Tyson train and he still looks like Iron Mike. That’s why I think you’re seeing a lot of bettors favor Iron Mike.”

Props for matchup

In result props at Caesars, Paul is the +125 favorite to win by KO, TKO or DQ, and he’s +325 to win by decision or technical decision. Tyson is 9-1 to win by decision and a draw pays 9-1.

Will the fight go the distance? No is a -200 favorite.

“We’ve all seen videos of Tyson working out. He looks great, but let me tell you, I’m 60, it’s not easy,” Kornegay said. “Even though (Paul’s) not a skilled boxer, he can take a punch or two, and I’m sure he’ll be able to take what Tyson can bring.

“How do you not say it’s kind of an intriguing matchup?”