Bob Wojnowski: As Michigan State and Michigan show, scripts can flip suddenly in March

EAST LANSING, Mich. — It’s not really fair or logical, but it’s the price you pay to play in March. It’s the power and the pain of Madness.

Everything you’ve done to this point — all the ebbs and flubs — gets overlooked. Tournament time offers reprieves but no replays, and a team’s season can flip in one game or one second. Tom Izzo knows it well, as he wades into his 27th consecutive NCAA Tournament with one of his most-efficient and promising teams. All he has to do is convince his players of the danger, without obsessing over it.

The Spartans (27-6) landed the No. 2 seed in the South Region, as expected, and will play Bryant (23-11) Friday night in Cleveland. The Bulldogs, from Smithfield, R.I., won the America East regular-season and tournament titles and went 14-2 in their conference. The Spartans will be heavily favored and would face the winner of Marquette-New Mexico.

Izzo’s team is deep and tough in the important areas — defense and rebounding, naturally — and spent most of the past month obliterating opponents.

He’s been through plenty of these in 30 years and knows that nobody knows how the tourney will twist.

“I’ve been a part of a 2-15 (seed) loss — been there, done that,” Izzo said Sunday, referencing the No. 2 Spartans’ loss to Middle Tennessee State in 2016. “When you’ve been through 27, 28 tournaments, you’ve kinda been through everything. So I don’t feel comfortable with anything, and I don’t feel afraid of anything.”

Izzo then lifted his left hand and moved it up and down, like a rollercoaster, like the Big Ten season that just ended.

“We’ve seen a lot of this,” he said, hand moving. “We just saw a team win the Big Ten (Tournament) that a couple of days ago was not playing very well. You’re gonna see a lot of that.”

It’s the prevailing theme this time of year. Fates turn suddenly, sometimes inexplicably, as Michigan showed Sunday by beating Wisconsin 59-53 to capture the tournament title. In Dusty May’s first season, he flipped an 8-24 team to 25-9, and the Wolverines landed as the No. 5 seed in the South. Plenty of obstacles remain — UM is only a slight favorite over No. 12 seed UC-San Diego — but UM and MSU could collide again in the regional final in Atlanta.

Scripts can flip quickly, as we’ve witnessed. One week ago, Michigan State pounded Michigan to easily win the regular-season crown, rolling to eight straight victories by an average margin of 10. Six days later in Indianapolis, the Spartans ran into a sharp-shooting Wisconsin team and fell, 77-74.

Badgers star John Tonje scored 32 points against Spartans, but shot 1 for 14 in the loss to Michigan. UM also beat Maryland with an astounding 47-28 rebounding advantage, and its defense looked fairly battle-tested. In the 79-62 loss to MSU last Sunday, UM looked broken.

In a weird way, it’s a cautionary tale for both teams. The Spartans delivered an embarrassing wakeup call to their rival, and the Wolverines used the loss, and the ensuing midcourt scuffle, as a driving force. May didn’t back down from the spat, and pushed his team.

“As a program, we walked out of there and just said our culture's not there yet,” May said last week, before winning three straight in the Big Ten tournament. “We pride ourselves on being humble and learning something from every opponent. And the way that Spartan team competes, it showed us what championship-level competitive spirit looks like.”

The Spartans have shown it as consistently as any Izzo team in recent memory. They’re deep enough to overcome slumps, with a rising freshman star in Jase Richardson. They don’t look like a team that’ll flip the opposite way, but Izzo is wary of emotional swings. For instance, a feisty Tre Holloman aggressively protected MSU’s logo by shoving two UM players. Against Wisconsin, Holloman drew a technical foul for jawing at the Badgers bench, and the game immediately turned.

The line is thin and merciless. Izzo wasn’t speaking of Holloman specifically, but he was itching to get into team meetings and hammer the message. Of note, MSU’s excellent free-throw shooting slipped, of late.

“I got a good team and I think we’re prepared for the Tournament,” Izzo said. “It’s a funny time of year, a lot of things that happen. … We gotta hope some guy doesn’t catch fire and score 30, gotta hope some official doesn’t make a couple calls to get us in foul trouble. The No. 1 factor now is not injuries, it’s not getting hot, it’s not getting cold, it’s not the officials, and you can’t blame it on the media. It’s the distractions — the dirtbags and the distractions.”

It's the evolving (devolving?) nature of college basketball, and the issues have been well-lamented. The “dirtbags” are anyone not singularly interested in winning or losing, the people who whisper promise of money and opportunity in players’ ears.

It’s blackout and blockout time now, and the Spartans have handled it very well all season. Then came the loss to Wisconsin, and they’re rechecking their edge.

“I feel like it was a little bit of a wakeup call, not that we necessarily needed it,” senior Jaden Akins said. “I feel like it’s good it happened now instead of in the NCAA Tournament. Just learn what we can from it.”

That’s what the Wolverines pledged to do, and their defense cranked up in wins over Purdue, Maryland and Wisconsin. If Tre Donaldson can run the offense and shoot the 3, and Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin can stay out of foul trouble inside, the Wolverines are fully capable of a run.

Moreso for the Spartans, who are much better balanced with a defense that has been smothering all season. They’re fifth in the nation in rebound margin and top-25 in field-goal percentage defense. Ten players average at least 10 minutes per game, and the hunt for a go-to guy ended with the emergence of Richardson, who looks capable of carrying a team.

I think MSU and UM will reach the Sweet 16, where they’d likely see overall No. 1 seed Auburn. Of course, that’s looking too far ahead. Technically, looking past any opponent or any possession is too far ahead. As always in March, scripts are made to be flipped.

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