Falling seed: How does loss at Xavier affect UConn men's NCAA Tournament outlook?

Joe Arruda, Hartford Courant on Jan 27, 2025

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HARTFORD, Conn. — As far as opponents go, the road isn’t going to get much easier for the UConn men’s basketball team anytime soon.

The most challenging part of the schedule is approaching with the Huskies set to visit No. 10 Marquette before hosting No. 20 St. John’s and returning on the road to Creighton, where they’ve never won, to start February. But good news could be coming first as Liam McNeeley approaches the fourth week of his recovery from the high ankle sprain that has sidelined him for the last six games, in which UConn went 3-3 with another close loss, 72-76, at Xavier Saturday night in Cincinnati.

The best-case scenario for McNeeley and the Huskies would be to make a return Wednesday night against DePaul, so he can get comfortable back on the court before those February showdowns.

“We knew when Liam went out … you’ve got to be able to win enough games so that you’re not demoralized when you get healthier. We’re literally gonna watch the same exact edit; I mean this has been the same game,” coach Dan Hurley told reporters Saturday. “Very similar defensive breakdowns, really bad one-on-one individual defense and some turnovers that were just backbreaking. It’s been a very frustrating season because this game has played out a lot.”

Saturday’s game was UConn’s 10th decided by five points or fewer this season, providing a much different NCAA Tournament resume than the program has been used to the last two years, when it only played in eight such games combined.

While it will probably drop out of the AP rankings for the first time since the 2022-23 preseason poll, UConn stayed at No. 35 in the NCAA’s NET rankings after the road loss, its third in six Quad 1 games thus far.

The Huskies, No. 36 on KenPom with the No. 10 offense and the No. 132 defense, are projected to be a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament by Torvik, which uses advanced analytics to forecast the rest of the season. Torvik projects the Huskies to lose just four of their remaining 11 games and finish the regular season with a 21-10 overall record and a 13-7 mark in Big East play, which would be identical to the Huskies’ Big East record in the 2022-23 national championship season.

ESPN, which ranks the Huskies No. 18 by its BPI (Basketball Power Index) metric, had UConn as a No. 6 seed in Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology, which was updated prior to the weekend’s games, as did FOX Sports’ Mike Decourcy. Jerry Palm, also not including the weekend’s games in his latest projection for CBS Sports, had UConn as a No. 8 seed.

Aidan Mahaney shows why UConn wanted him

UConn was trying to get the ball in the hands of Aidan Mahaney after Solo Ball’s open 3 to take the lead missed off the rim, caraming right to Hassan Diarra for an offensive rebound under the basket and Hurley called a timeout. Ultimately the play was broken up and Jayden Ross couldn’t get his shot off in time, resulting in a shot clock violation with five seconds left.

“That last possession was regrettable, and a failure to just kind of execute something,” Hurley said. “Besides Solo at that point, when Alex (Karaban) fouled out, just in terms of options, we wanted the ball in Aidan’s hand. You’ve got to screen your own man so that Aidan can then get to the ball and then get downhill where he had success. Even there, once it blew up, Samson (Johnson) obviously created a throwback for J-Ross, if that pass is on target he has a chance to shoot a 3 to win and maybe we get out of here with that. Frustrating.”

Mahaney finished the game with 14 points – his fourth double-figure performance as a Husky – and looked like the player UConn brought him in to be during the final two minutes of the first half as he scored or assisted on the team’s last 10 points to take a lead at the break.

If he can stay consistent once McNeeley returns, the team will look more like what Hurley and his staff envisioned when they put the roster together.

Samson Johnson: ‘Warrior’

If there was a discussion about who UConn’s starting center should be, Samson Johnson or Tarris Reed Jr., that was shut down Saturday night. Johnson had one of his best games of the year with 12 points on 5-for-5 shooting with four rebounds and an assist. He recorded a career-high five blocks, and has now swatted away nine shots over the Huskies’ last two games. Reed had another rough outing as he picked up four fouls in just 11 minutes played and finished with three points, two rebounds and a block.

“In this sport, especially in the Big East, and the environments you go into and just the emotion and passion involved in college basketball games, especially the games like (Saturday), you need warriors with you on the court,” Hurley said of Johnson. “You need people that are playing with a life and death level of urgency, because these games come down to one possession.

“I love that kid, man, that kid is like one of my favorite players I’ve ever coached. He tipped the scales at 211 (pounds) in the beginning of the week, so he’s a center weighing 210 basically and he’s just giving you everything he’s got. That’s why he starts games and that’s why I trust him.”

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