John Clay: Will Kentucky's SEC bruises pay off come NCAA Tournament time? Here's what history says.

John Clay, Lexington Herald-Leader on Jan 20, 2025

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LEXINGTON, Ky. — Here’s the question of the day: Will this incredibly tough SEC men’s basketball schedule pay dividends when it comes time for what really matters?

After all, this week without a midweek conference contest could not have come at a better time for Kentucky men’s basketball.

The Wildcats lost 102-97 to visiting Alabama on Saturday. They have several players nursing injuries. In the past five games, they’ve played four teams ranked in the AP’s top 15. They could use a break.

“We have to take advantage of it, and everybody’s got one,” UK coach Mark Pope said Saturday. “For our guys to get fresh and to get healthy is going to be probably key number one, and we would also like to make some big strides of improvement.”

Next Saturday, they dive back into the shark tank, however. First comes a visit to Vanderbilt, who upset No. 6 Tennessee 76-75 on Saturday. Tuesday, Jan. 28, the Cats visit Knoxville, Tenn., to play the Volunteers, who for a five-week stretch were ranked No. 1 in the country. That’s followed by a trip to No. 21 Ole Miss. On and on and on.

There’s no doubt the SEC is this year’s best hoops league, if not one of the best of all time. Through Saturday’s play, six of the top 13 teams in the NCAA NET rankings were from the SEC — No. 1 Auburn, No. 4 Tennessee, No. 5 Florida, No. 7 Alabama, No. 12, Kentucky, No. 13 Ole Miss. The SEC claimed four of the top eight KenPom spots — No. 2 Duke, No. 5 Florida, No. 6, Tennessee, No. 8 Alabama.

Conventional wisdom insists playing a rugged conference slate better prepares SEC teams, Kentucky included, for the madness of March.

But is the flip side true? Is it more likely that by the time SEC teams reach the postseason they won’t have enough left in the tank to enjoy success?

I did some research. By KenPom’s numbers, the Big 12 was ranked as the nation’s best conference in nine of the last 10 years in which an NCAA Tournament was held. (COVID-19 canceled the 2020 tournament.) The 2021 season was the outlier, with the Big Ten ranking as KenPom’s No. 1 league.

During the Big 12’s nine-year reign, the league placed five teams in the Final Four. Oklahoma lost in the 2016 national semifinals. Kansas lost in the 2018 national semifinals. Texas Tech was the national runner-up to Virginia in the 2019 NCAA Tournament. Baylor won the 2021 national championship. Kansas won the 2022 national championship.

During those 10 years, the SEC never ranked higher than No. 4 in KenPom’s comparisons. Yet the league put six teams in the Final Four — Kentucky and Florida in 2014, Kentucky in 2015, South Carolina in 2017, Auburn in 2019 and Alabama in 2024.

Here’s the conference breakdown of Final Four teams for that decade stretch:

— ACC — 9.

— Big Ten— 6.

— SEC — 6.

— Big East — 5.

— Big 12 — 5.

— American Athletic — 2.

— Pac-12 — 2.

— West Coast — 2.

— Conference USA — 1.

— Missouri Valley — 1.

— Mountain West — 1.

To be sure, there is the argument that weak conferences do not properly prepare their best teams for what comes after Selection Sunday.

Exceptions: The 2023 Final Four included Lamont Butler and national-runner up San Diego State of the Mountain West Conference, rated as the sixth-best league. San Diego State won its national semifinal game against Florida Atlantic of Conference USA, ranked as the 10th-best league.

Then there’s Gonzaga, which has enjoyed consistent March Madness success despite playing in the West Coast Conference. The WCC’s highest KenPom ranking over the last 10 tournaments? No. 8. That includes 2021 when the Zags lost to North Carolina in the national title game.

Then again, this year’s SEC might be a special case. The league is so talented and so deep — 13 of the SEC’s 16 teams are ranked in KenPom’s top 50 — its domination come March Madness might be inevitable.

That is if its teams has something left in the tank.

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