Barry Jackson: How the summer of 2026 factors into Heat's plans with Butler. Exciting options could await.

Barry Jackson, Miami Herald on Jan 10, 2025

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MIAMI — Long before the summer of 2010, the Heat carefully cleared their books to set the table for what would be the most monumental free-agent splash in NBA history, one that delivered LeBron James and Chris Bosh and created a Dwyane Wade-anchored Big 3 that made four NBA Finals and won two of them.

The Heat are now positioned to clear substantial cap space for the summer of 2026, when Terry Rozier and Duncan Robinson come off the books and a parade of All-NBA-caliber players can become free agents. Miami has only $85 million committed for the 2026-27 season, well under the $170.6 million projected cap that season.

This is something the Heat are very much cognizant of, though the organization also would be receptive to adding a pricey player on a long-term contract before then if it’s a genuine difference-maker, according to a league source.

If the Heat trade Butler before the Feb. 6 trade, taking back a player whose contract runs through 2025-26 isn’t necessarily a nonstarter, provided it’s a good player and that the Heat are incentivized to do so with another asset (which could be a draft pick).

But for Miami to even consider taking back a player with major money owed past 2025-26? That would be highly unlikely unless it’s a star.

There’s one obstacle for any team squirreling away 2026 cap space: With rare exceptions, NBA stars have changed their approach significantly since 2010, opting for the security of long-term contracts instead of the drama of free agency.

Among players who signed max contracts this decade, only Paul George became a free agent and signed into another team’s cap space. George left the Clippers for the 76ers in July.

So even though the Heat would have the money to sign a max player and more in 2026, the issue is whether any of the top potential 2026 free agents bypass signing extensions over the next 18 months.

The cast of All-Star-caliber potential 2026 unrestricted free agents, by position, include these players (and keep in mind that stars with opt outs very likely will exercise those opt outs):

Guards

Dallas’ Luka Doncic ($49 million player option for 2026-27), Sacramento’s De’Aaron Fox, Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Atlanta’s Trae Young ($49 million player option), Milwaukee’s Damian Lillard ($63 million player option for 2026-27), Chicago’s Zach LaVine ($49 million player option), Houston’s Fred Van Vleet, the Clippers’ James Harden, New Orleans’ C.J. McCollum, Golden State’s Andrew Wiggins ($30 million player option) ...

Orlando’s Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($21.6 million), Utah’s Colin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson, the Lakers’ Austin Reeves ($14.9 million player option), Portland’s Anfernee Simmons, Chicago’s Coby White, the Clippers’ Norman Powell, Sacramento’s Kevin Huerter and Dallas’ Klay Thompson ($17.4 million opt out).

Forwards

Memphis’ Jaren Jackson Jr., Phoenix’s Kevin Durant, the Knicks’ Mikal Bridges, Detroit’s Tobias Harris, San Antonio’s Harrison Barnes, Utah’s John Collins, Dallas’ P.J. Washington, the Lakers’ Rui Hachimura, Golden State’s Draymond Green ($27.6 million opt out).

Centers

Boston’s Kristaps Porzingis, Portland’s DeAndre Ayton, Orlando’s Mo Wagner, Chicago’s Nikola Vucevic, the Knicks’ Mitchell Robinson, Dallas’ Daniel Gafford, Toronto’s Jakob Poeltl, Portland’s Robert Williams and San Antonio’s Zach Collins.

If the NBA went back in a time machine to circa 2010, many of the aforementioned players would play out their contracts and become free agents in what would be the most loaded free-agent class in NBA history.

The reality is that most of them likely won’t.

The Heat’s hopes of landing any of the high-end players on that list rely in part on some circumstances beyond their control. Are any unhappy with their teams and decide to take their chances with free agency? Do any feel unsatisfied with the offers presented by their teams and opt for free agency, which happened with George when the Clippers balked at offering him max money?

Keep in mind that something unexpected usually happens in the NBA.

And almost all of the Heat’s 2026 potential cap space also could be used to a acquire a disgruntled star who’s already under contract, not necessarily a potential ‘26 free agent.

Another value of significant cap space: You can absorb a big contract without needing to trade much, or any, money away.

One other thing to keep in mind: If the Heat cannot find an appealing trade offer for Butler before the Feb. 6 trade deadline, it’s conceivable that Butler could opt into his $52.4 million Heat salary for 2025-26 if his agent scans the market informally in June and determines that no team is willing to commit to multiyear money at the max or close to it.

In that scenario, the Heat would have more than $70 million in 2026-27 cap space (for use in the summer of 2026) if they keep Butler through next season or eventually trade him for contracts that don’t extend beyond next season.