Chicago Bulls can't survive without 3-point shooting. So how can they right the ship during this slump?

Julia Poe, Chicago Tribune on Dec 29, 2024

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CHICAGO — The Chicago Bulls can’t survive without 3-point shooting.

This is, in a way, what it looks like when the other shoe drops. Nearly midway through the season, the Bulls are the second-most prolific 3-point shooting team in the NBA, trailing only the Boston Celtics as they average 16.5 made 3s on 44 attempts per game.

The success of this transformed offense has been undeniable. The Bulls entered their game Saturday night against the Milwaukee Bucks ranked sixth in the league in points per game (117.7) and 12th in offensive rating (112.6) as they marginally outperform expectations.

But the sustainability of the 3-pointers — the making of them, not the attempts — has been a looming question.

The reality for a lopsided roster is that a team only ever trades one problem for another. The Bulls are more dependent than ever on a single style of shot. And as shooters begin to hit the expected midseason slumps, the offense is at risk of becoming fully exposed.

In the early weeks, center Nikola Vučević often laughed when asked if his shooting ever would cool off. It was a question he had asked himself. As tirelessly as he worked in the offseason, Vučević doesn’t have a thorough explanation for how his 3-point accuracy has jumped from 29.4% last season to 45.6%.

For Vučević, the goal always has been the same: consistency. He doesn’t thrive in tumult. When his shooting becomes streaky, he often struggles to contain his frustration, which then degrades his accuracy. Vučević’s volume of shots has been satisfying, but he cares more about sustaining a high level of accuracy than jacking up a bunch of shots.

But the trend is beginning to turn for Vučević. He shot 35% from 3-point range over the last five games before Saturday, going 0-for-4 in a loss to the Celtics and 2-for-8 in Monday’s loss to the Milwaukee Bucks.

Vučević isn’t alone. The Bulls are trending downward in 3-point accuracy, dropping to 35.9% over the last 10 games before Saturday. This has been heightened by the absence of key players such as Lonzo Ball and Ayo Dosunmu, who not only boost the team’s 3-point shooting, but also can facilitate playmaking to create better opportunities.

The Bulls’ long-range attempts haven’t wavered even as their accuracy has dipped. Instead, they are taking more and more 3s as defenses begin to cede the 3-point arc in preference of packing the paint and removing all other avenues of scoring.

Thursday’s loss to the Atlanta Hawks, in which the Bulls shot 51.2% (22 of 43) from long range, encapsulated just how dependent they have become — on both 3-point shooting and the individual brilliance behind it.

Jevon Carter buoyed the offense with an improbable flurry of six 3s in the first quarter. On the scoresheet, this created the facade of a robust offense as the Bulls pulled ahead by double digits.

In reality, Carter’s scoring belied a complete lack of scoring from the rest of the roster, which made only six shots inside the arc in the first quarter. Once Carter’s hot streak dimmed, the Bulls floundered.

The pattern repeated in the third quarter, with Zach LaVine burying six 3s. The Bulls seemed to settle into a comfortable blowout, only to have it evaporate in the fourth quarter.

The 141-133 loss, their third straight defeat, highlighted that while 3-point shooting is an easy way to blow out an opponent, quarters such as the second and fourth — in which the Bulls made only three 3-pointers each — can leave the team paralyzed for scoring options.

To be clear, the Bulls should be able to win any game in which they score more than 130 points. Thursday’s failure falls squarely on the defense. But finding a way to be less vulnerable to shooting streaks and skids is imperative for maintaining competitiveness in the new year.

There are a few ways to accomplish this. The Bulls could utilize Vučević more inside the arc. Defenses are trying to knock him out of his typical shooting rhythm, which is opening mismatches and post-ups down low that the Bulls aren’t hitting. Improved entry passes — and better finishing at the rim from Vučević — would reestablish some balance.

The Bulls also could benefit from utilizing LaVine’s playmaking more consistently. He has spent most of this season showcasing his ability to do more with less, averaging an improved 22.3 points despite taking two fewer shots per game than the previous two seasons. But the offense finds its true rhythm when LaVine pushes the ball downhill early in a game.

The best way for the Bulls to ride out shooting slumps is to create better 3-point shots. They shouldn’t stop taking 3s — quite the opposite. The offense has been revitalized by the enthusiasm with which the players have bought into a new style of play. Even when the 3s aren’t falling, the ball movement and off-ball creativity established by the system is critical to the success of the offense.

For the Bulls, the answer is taking better 3-point shots, not fewer. Whether they can continue to create those looks — even as defenses adjust to combat their greatest strength — will be the focal point of the next stage of the season.