Ira Winderman: Harsh realities factor into Heat guard Tyler Herro's All-Star bid

ORLANDO, Fla. — This was yet another moment of maturity, of which there have been many for Tyler Herro this season.

In the wake of Monday night’s crushing overtime loss to the Detroit Pistons, Herro was asked in the intervening days about his chances for an All-Star breakthrough in this sixth Miami Heat season.

Amid a selfless season that has seen him operate more within team precepts than at any previous career juncture, Herro demurred.

“It would be cool, it would be cool,” he said, before adding, “I don’t want to say too much about it. We’ll see what happens. That’s all I can say right now. We’ll see.”

That we will, with All-Star voting opening this past week.

If ever there was a season for Herro to state his case, this would be it, based on his combination of scoring and efficiency.

Of course, there also is more to the All-Star equation, including popularity (the fan vote), winning (the coaches’ vote) and career achievement (which tends to weigh in the player vote).

First the rules:

— Three frontcourt players and two backcourt players from each conference are voted in as starters in a combined fan-media-player vote.

— The remaining seven All-Stars from each conference are selected by coaches after the starters are announced, required to select at least three more frontcourt players, two more backcourt players and then two additional players at any position.

While the approach of this season’s All-Star Game has been altered to a tournament format, the basics for balloting have not changed from previous seasons.

So, 12 All-Stars from the East, with a minimum of four guards and a maximum of six.

When it comes to East guards, the seeming locks would be Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell, New York’s Jalen Brunson and Milwaukee’s Damian Lillard, based on their teams’ success (while also taking into account Milwaukee’s dramatic upswing).

That would leave, at most, three more spots for East backcourt players.

But, again, there only can be as many as six East backcourt players if there only are six East frontcourt players.

So if the East does max out on guards, and with the assumption of Mitchell, Brunson and Lillard being locked in either through the popularity contest for starters or the coaches’ assessment for reserves, that would appear to leave Herro’s prime competition for one of the three possible remaining spots as:

— Charlotte’s LaMelo Ball.

— Atlanta’s Trey Young.

— Boston’s Derrick White.

— Cleveland’s Darius Garland.

— Detroit’s Cade Cunningham.

— Philadelphia’s Tyrese Maxey.

— Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton.

The first two names on that list could come down to the fan balloting, which counts for 50% of vote for starters, as well as tiebreaker for the overall selection process for starters. Young and Ball are among two of the most popular players from the electorate the NBA is playing to with its voting through social media, with Ball’s scoring and Young’s passing also placing them among the league’s statistical leaders.

The second two names come down to winning, and the reality of the breakaway of the Cavaliers and Celtics in the standings. Cleveland almost assuredly deserves at least two All-Stars, so Garland’s chances of making it back could come down to whether he joins Mitchell or if Cleveland instead gets a frontcourt selection, perhaps Evan Mobley. As for White, do the coaches reward the Celtics with a third All-Star beyond Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown?

So only then, if fewer than two of Ball, Young, White or Garland are selected would there be a spot for Herro.

And even then it would come down to vying against the significant upgrade by the Pistons’ Cunningham, the steadiness of the 76ers’ Maxey and the reputation of the Pacers’ Haliburton.

Doable? Certainly.

But there also is another element in play, considering Herro would have to make it through the coach’s selections: It is possible that the Heat get canceled out of the process by a split vote, some East coaches favoring the defensive emphasis and two-way play of Bam Adebayo, some leaning toward Jimmy Butler arguably remaining the Heat’s best player.

In fact, a case could be made that by making Adebayo the Heat’s All-Star, he would be an easier fit in a frontcourt with Tatum, Brown, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Karl-Anthony Towns and the more ambulatory at the time of selection of Orlando’s frontcourt candidates (Paolo Banchero or Franz Wagner), with a minimum of six East frontcourt players required.

“And I don’t get a vote,” Herro said with a grin, “so I don’t know what’s going to happen.”

But he does know what he wants to make happen.

“I’ve wanted to be an All-Star since I came into the league,” he said, responding to the phrasing of the question rather than politicking. “I think the organization wants me to be an All-Star, that’s why they drafted me.”

And so, like many candidates, he now waits for the polls to close next month.

“I definitely never had my numbers that I have now,” he said. “My Sixth Man of the Year (2021-22) was probably my best chance. But I think this is my best chance since then, probably my best year since I came into the league. But we’ll see what happens.

“I would love to be an All-Star, but there’s a lot of good guards in the East when you think about it. So it’ll be tough.”