Ira Winderman: Are Heat dealing with irrational confidence, no longer dangerous loomers?

Ira Winderman, South Florida Sun-Sentinel on Dec 1, 2024

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TORONTO — As the NBA season reaches its quarter pole, it no longer is too early to say it is too early. Which leads to the question of: What exactly are we fighting for?

While much has been made about the parity (which in this case is a convenient code word for mediocrity) in the middle of the Eastern Conference playoff race, has a harsh reality also arrived?

Is anyone catching the Cleveland Cavaliers, or, more to the point, the Boston Celtics?

For the Heat, that matters, matters a lot, as they continue to sort out their future with Jimmy Butler, who, at 35, has been all over the map with his play.

Until last season’s playoffs, there was the hype of Heat hope of a puncher’s chance against the Celtics no matter the seed.

Then came annihilation, albeit with Butler and Terry Rozier sidelined. Still, it’s not as if that was going to be a fair fight even with the Heat whole, the days of being tagged by ESPN as “dangerous loomers,” seemingly a thing of the past.

Now, with the Celtics armed with championship confidence, the gap appears more severe.

Yes, the Heat could wind up better positioned than last season, when their No. 8 seeding meant facing No. 1 Boston in the first round.

And, yes, no one is quite sure how it plays out in the playoffs for the Cavaliers, considering their own second-round playoff punch in the face by the Celtics a year ago.

But this approach of hoping upon hope takes a toll.

Two years ago, Max Strus and Gabe Vincent were retained by the Heat for the playoff race, then lost for nothing in free agency. The same happened with Caleb Martin last season and last summer.

At some point, you have to recognize the challenge, accept the reality, regroup.

For some teams, the all-or-nothing die has already been cast. The Philadelphia 76ers, Milwaukee Bucks, even the New York Knicks have to go all in. They are built for this moment, even with some of those foundations shaky at the moment.

But even those teams, approaching the quarter pole, recognize the degree of the challenge, which Bucks coach Doc Rivers was asked to address before his team’s game Tuesday night at Kaseya Center, of whether the rest of the conference already is playing for third place.

“We knew who Boston was before the year,” he said. “Unless they had injuries, I don’t think anyone is surprised by that. I don’t think anyone is panicked by any of this, to be honest. There’s 60 games left. There’s plenty of time to catch everybody.

“I don’t think anyone’s panicked by it. I don’t think anyone’s surprised by Boston. I think the start that Cleveland got off to, it’s surprising, but they’re a really good basketball team. They were last year, and they’re healthy right now.”

When you have Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and are getting back Khris Middleton, it’s easier to talk in those terms.

But are Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler the same?

Enough to trump Boston’s Kristaps Porzingis, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum ... and Derrick White and Jrue Holiday?

The Heat approach this past summer was a passive one, of waiting to mesh with Rozier, of getting back a healthy Butler, of growth not only from the likes of Nikola Jovic and Jaime Jaquez Jr., but also from Adebayo and Herro. On that count, it has been a mixed bag.

Based on the approach of previous seasons, the Heat play it out, even with Butler’s uncertain contractual future, with his player option looming this coming summer.

Positioned above the first apron of the luxury tax at the moment, dealing will be difficult enough, unable to bring back a single dollar more in salary in a trade than is sent out. But if this payroll winds up going above the second apron, then multiple Heat players no longer can be aggregated in deals.

For four years, during their LeBron James era, the Heat were the team that had other East teams banging their heads against an impenetrable wall, with those Indiana Pacers as Exhibit A. During Pat Riley’s time in New York, it was the futile chase against Michael Jordan’s Bulls.

This comparison, while not as severe, is just as real.

It doesn’t mean surrender in December or January, but the Feb. 6 NBA trade deadline eventually will loom.

That’s what makes these standings, at this moment, matter. And why, while Doc Rivers said there is no reason to be “panicked,” there is reason to be rational. And real.