Ira Winderman: It is time for Heat to accept 'reasonable expectations'

MIAMI — Heading into a season, the term “reasonable expectations” almost comes off as an oxymoron. The mere point of expectation is of hope.

But then there is the South Florida sports landscape, where years and decades at least have led to tempered expectations.

For the Miami Dolphins, on the eve of the NFL, it’s to win a playoff game for the first time in more than two decades. For the Miami Hurricanes, it’s a return to at least Atlantic Coast Conference relevance and perhaps a bite at the expanded college football playoff. For the Miami Marlins it already is about something other than what this season has become.

Then there are the Florida Panthers, where there is what previously was thought as pie in the sky, a potential third consecutive trip to the Stanley Cup Final and possible back-to-back championships.

And then there is the curious case of the Miami Heat, a franchise under Pat Riley that has insisted solely on championship visions, which, as a result, often has led to considerable consternation.

Now a month from the start of training camp, as players reconvene, it appears time for the Heat to accept “reasonable expectations” not as a concession, but as a building block.

Often, Erik Spoelstra can be heard noting the importance of not skipping steps, of using such building blocks to establish a foundation.

That seemingly is where the current Heat project projects.

A championship-or-bust team does not draw a line in the luxury tax or fear the dangers of teetering at a luxury-tax apron. The Boston Celtics haven’t; the Heat have.

A championship-or-bust team does not work seemingly with as wide an eye to the future as to the present, with the Heat in the midst of a balance toward establishing better futures for the likes of Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel’el Ware, Nikola Jovic, and other neophytes.

A championship-or-bust team does not necessarily leave the books with optionality as it deliberates the contractual future of a leading man such as Jimmy Butler; it lives in the moment, as the Philadelphia 76ers did by pouring every last bit of cap space into Paul George.

And that’s fine, too. Three berths in the Eastern Conference finals over the past five years allow for the perspective of at least a reset if assuredly not a rebuild.

So now, a month before the Heat state their own case at media day at Kaseya Center and a month before they begin making their 2024-25 case during training camp in the Bahamas, what are, dare we ask, “reasonable expectations” for what comes next?

No play-in

There simply cannot again be the desperation of a fight to the finish to avoid the play-in round. Not only isn’t it a good look, but what if the safety net of the Chicago Bulls isn’t there again in the winner-take-all final game of that play-in round?

This is where it will get interesting for Spoelstra, to try to get the attention of a roster that seemingly has become anesthetized to the regular season.

And even if he does, there are no guarantees, with only the top six in the conference advancing directly to the best-of-seven first round of the playoffs, and stiff competition for those spots when considering the Celtics, 76ers, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Orlando Magic and Indiana Pacers.

Beating out even two of those over the first 82 won’t be easy.

Arrive ambulatory

With Butler and Terry Rozier sidelined for the first round last season, even against competition lesser than the Celtics, the postseason likely would have been short-lived.

And that makes the second part of this equation an uneasy balance with the first, of avoiding the play-in.

What will be needed is an approach that has Butler at his typical playoff best for the start of the postseason, as well as an appreciation of the well-being for the other 30-somethings on the roster (Rozier turned 30 in March).

That’s where quality depth will factor in. And yet beyond, say, Jaquez Jr. and Duncan Robinson, is there quality depth (with all due respect to the younger players)?

Maximize the matchup

This, of course, is a latter-rather-than-sooner element. But matchups matter, and no matchup could have been worse for the Heat last season than the Celtics in the first round.

Keep in mind, for all that went wrong last season, at 46-36, the Heat finished four games out of second in the East, three out of third and two out of fourth.

There will be opportunities to maximize matchups, as the Cavaliers deftly did their closing-day maneuvering to get the neophyte Magic in the first round.

Win at least one

Accepting the winning of a single round as success? Heat blasphemy, assuredly.

And yet this does have somewhat the feeling of a potential gap year, amid the uncertainty of Butler’s potential opt-out next season or perhaps even intervening extension.

That will make at least two rounds the requirement to see if Playoff Jimmy endures, if Rozier fits for the future, if there has to be another buy-or-sell decision with Tyler Herro, and if Bam Adebayo is the anchor going forward.

Last year, the Heat barely made it into May, their season ending May 1 at TD Garden. This year, there at least has to be something more, at least when it comes to “reasonable expectations.”