ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Twenty years ago, there was no such thing as openers.

Defensive shifts were a relic of the past, there were no process-and-analytics coaches in the dugout, no one was talking about exit velocity, run prevention was not yet a trendy term and pulling starting pitchers before their third time through the order sounded goofy.

The Rays did not necessarily invent all of these ideas, but they emphasized them like no franchise ever had. And they had so much success that nearly every team in Major League Baseball has adopted some — if not all — of Tampa Bay’s creative strategies in recent years.

The Rays have not just outsmarted a lot of their rivals, they have legitimately changed the way the game is played. And MLB has noticed by changing some of its rules, including the parameters for defensive shifts and how relief pitchers can be utilized.

Which brings us to a worrisome thought in 2025:

If other teams continue to adopt their innovations, how much longer can the Rays stay ahead of the field by reinventing conventional wisdom?

“Everybody has a different formula but I still think, for smaller markets, we have to win on the margins,” said Pirates manager Derek Shelton, who spent seven years in Tampa Bay as the hitting coach. “Whether it’s how we play, who we acquire or how we deploy. And now, with so many teams copying the model, you have to be even more consistent with finding the right formula than you did 10 years ago.

“But I do think the Rays were the gold standard from the get-go with all of those ideas, especially in that division.”

A new strategy

Back in 2008, this would have been a laughable concept. The Rays had finished in last place in the American League East in nine of their first 10 seasons. Their one reprieve was a 70-91 record in 2004 when they finished ahead of the last-place Blue Jays and celebrated with a champagne toast.

Yet within two years of Stuart Sternberg taking over the team ahead of the 2006 season — and installing 20-somethings Andrew Friedman and Matt Silverman as his top lieutenants — the Rays were in the World Series.

Friedman’s earliest innovations were tame compared to what we would see in the coming years. He knew the Rays could not match the Yankees and Red Sox for star power at the top of the lineup, so he focused instead on depth. Maybe the top five players in New York and Boston would be better than what the Rays had, but Tampa Bay would be stronger from No. 6 through the last player on the 40-man roster.

And Friedman also focused on run prevention, which historically meant investing in starting pitching. Friedman instead built a diverse bullpen and the best defense in the AL, even if it meant sacrificing run-scoring. The idea was that good defense was cheaper to acquire than a lineup of sluggers.

The Rays went from allowing 944 runs in 2007 to only 671 runs in 2008, an improvement of nearly 30%. Bizarrely, the Rays offense took a small step backward and still went from 66 wins to 97 and the AL pennant.

“It wasn’t just finding value on the margins,” said Twins manager and former Rays player and coach Rocco Baldelli. “It was finding new margins that nobody else recognized.

“Since I left the organization, I’ve always tried to observe from the outside and try to think along with them. I like to imagine that I can keep up with them, but I really can’t. They continue to do it over and over again. And nothing they do is by chance, there’s always a plan.”

Thus began baseball’s avant-garde box score.

Borrowing from the best

Since 2008, the Rays are third in MLB in regular-season victories and 29th in payroll.

“What’s guided us every step along the way is always asking if we can do something better,” said baseball operations president Erik Neander. “We don’t ask it in comparison to anyone else. Just, can we do something better? Why do we do things the way we do? Does it make sense? You know what, it might not make sense. OK, is there a better way to do it? Let’s give it a shot. If it works, we’re doing better. If it doesn’t, let’s go back to the way it was.

“It’s just that simple process that iterates and iterates and iterates. Supported really from Stu all the way through and it has, I think, fueled our mentality and our growth and has given us the opportunity to compete and succeed with payrolls and revenue that are not on par with our competition.”

But has the degree of difficulty changed in the last 17 seasons?

Friedman left for Los Angeles in 2015 where the combination of innovation and payroll has allowed the Dodgers to reach the playoffs 10 consecutive seasons, win nine division titles, four pennants and two World Series.

And the Dodgers are not the only big-market team to borrow from Tampa Bay’s playbook. Theo Epstein was an early proponent of analytics and won the World Series with both the Red Sox and Cubs. The Brewers and Guardians, meanwhile, are two low-revenue clubs that have followed a similar path to success as Tampa Bay.

So, again, are the Rays in danger of being done in by their own petard?

Neander doesn’t seem worried by the thought, although he acknowledges that other teams have also hired analytic-based baseball chiefs who are pushing the envelope as successfully as the Rays.

“Many people are doing things that are much more successful than us, and we’re trying to pay attention,” Neander said. “That’s what happens, right? People notice and start implementing things that have proven to be successful elsewhere.

“Whether or not we’ve run out of gas on that, I sure as heck hope not. We have reached the point where an 80-win season is a disappointment. I’d like to think that means we’ve set a standard and expectation that is still very competitive.”

Essentially, the Rays and others are seeking the best way to predict the future. Mathematics and statistical analysis are a big part of that. But, in the end, it’s still a game played by people. And, in the long run, talent will usually trump strategy.

The key is finding and maximizing those gifts. So while exit velocity and openers may have outwardly been the symbols of Tampa Bay’s forward-thinking executives, it comes down to recognizing specific skills and putting players in the best position to succeed.

Maybe that’s realizing a struggling reliever needs to ditch his change-up and throw his slider more often. Maybe it’s a hitter who needs to lean into his potential pulling the ball. Maybe it’s eschewing expensive sluggers and collecting quick, athletic hitters who make contact.

“Right now, we’re focused on what we can do to help our hitters,” Neander said. “Are there different approaches, are there better ways of preparing? What can we do to put them in the best position to succeed? Some of the ideas stick, and some are discarded.

“Over 20 years, it’s probably 5 percent of the things that have stuck that people are still talking about. The other 95 percent have been forgotten.”

In its simplest form, the Rays need to zig when others zag. They need to pounce on skills that are undervalued elsewhere.

They need to continue doing what they’ve done for the better part of 20 years.

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