The new year approaches. The Cardinals’ “retool” has begun. Paul Goldschmidt’s new home ballpark is Yankee Stadium.

Yet Nolan Arenado remains the Cardinals’ third baseman.

Even when the ball drops on 2024, there will be more than a month remaining before spring training starts in Jupiter, Florida.

Arguably the biggest third base domino this offseason, free-agent Alex Bregman, still hasn’t tipped over. So there’s clearly still time for the Cardinals and Arenado to get in sync on a trade that would help facilitate the club’s “reset” and simultaneously get Arenado closer to contention.

Each passing day seemingly makes it more clear that a trade might be the only path to Arenado and the Cardinals achieving their respective goals.

Where things stand

Coming away from Major League Baseball’s winter meetings in Dallas, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and Arenado’s agent Joel Wolfe left the door open to the possibility Arenado could be in Cardinals camp when spring training starts. Though neither side seemed particularly enamored by that possibility.

“Ultimately, he’s not demanding a trade,” Mozeliak said in early December in Dallas. “He’s not telling me I have to do it. But I think, in the best interest of both sides, I’d like to try to find him some place.”

At that time, Mozeliak acknowledged there was a possibility Arenado would report to spring training camp in Jupiter.

“It is, but I’m not sure that puts us exactly where we want to be,” Mozeliak said.

When asked to expand on why that wouldn’t put the Cardinals where they want to be, Mozeliak said, “From a financial standpoint, we’re trying to move our payroll. There’s certainly other ways we can do this, but that would be a big help.”

A day after Mozeliak addressed his intention to “try” to trade Arenado, Wolfe was asked what would happen if a deal couldn’t be worked out.

“Then he stays,” Wolfe said matter-of-factly.

Wolfe made it clear Arenado would use his veto power as he felt necessary to steer a trade. Arenado’s contract includes a no-trade clause, which prevents the Cardinals from completing a trade including Arenado without his approval.

Arenado, 33, has three years and $74 million remaining on his deal, which carries through the 2027 season. He opted into the final three seasons of his deal following back-to-back 90-win seasons and playoff appearances in his first two seasons with the Cardinals (2021 and 2022).

Now that the Cardinals have switched gears toward evaluating their young players with an eye on the future, Arenado’s preference is to join a contending team. Wolfe said Arenado would want a team that is going to win now and for the remainder of Arenado’s career, a team with the “throttle down.”

While Arenado makes his home in Southern California, Wolfe said geography wasn’t a focus of Arenado’s in potential trade talks.

“It’s a bigger grouping than you would think,” he said of Arenado’s potential destinations. “He’s got a much more open mind than he’s had in the past. So we’ll see.”

Following the winter meetings, a potential trade with Houston fell apart because Arenado declined to waive his no-trade clause to go to the Astros.

The Astros moved on quickly. They signed free-agent first baseman Christian Walker to a three-year deal and that pushed Isaac Paredes to third base.

And if Arenado stays?

During the winter meetings, Wolfe said Arenado wouldn’t accept a trade he considered a side-step. Arenado would want a better situation than the current one in St. Louis.

However, keeping Arenado in the fold might lead the Cardinals to take steps backward from where they were in 2024 and where they currently project for 2025.

Mozeliak was clear that the desire to trim payroll is a focus. If not by trading, there are “certainly other ways we can do it.”

But would those ways make the Cardinals’ roster better and put Arenado in a better position to contend?

First baseman Willson Contreras and starting pitcher Sonny Gray, who each have a no-trade clause, have stated their preference to remain with the club. After Gray, Arenado and Contreras, the club’s highest salaries (not including arbitration projections) belong to starting pitchers Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz and Erick Fedde.

Trading starting pitching, one of the areas of the club where the Cardinals have veterans who provide relatively predictable levels of performance, would not seem to move Arenado closer to contention.

Mozeliak described the roster as “fluid” this offseason. Potential offseason additions also seem to be tied to the club’s ability to clear money off the books.

“I kind of need to get our payroll to where we feel comfortable with it,” Mozeliak said during the winter meetings of potential free-agent acquisitions. “But that’s what my point is — we still could see some additions to this roster at some point.”

Arenado, a 10-time Gold Glove winner, eight-time All-Star and five-time Silver Slugger award winner, this year turned in his least-productive season since he joined the Cardinals before the 2021 season. His 16 home runs were the fewest in a season since his rookie year with the Colorado Rockies (2013). His .394 slugging percentage marked a career low.

Following the final home game this year, Arenado expressed confidence he’d get back to his typical level of power production in 2025.

“There’s no doubt, I’ve got to get back to me, who I am, driving the ball and slugging,” Arenado said in September. “Some people probably don’t think I can, but I know I can. I really do believe that I can get back to slugging.”

Even with a down season in 2024 and having fallen short of 100 runs batted in in 2023, Arenado’s 162-game averages in his career included 33 home runs, 109 RBIs and a slash line of .285/.342/.515.

His presence also makes it difficult for the Cardinals to accomplish their goal of “creating runway” for younger players.

The Cardinals have designs on getting regular playing time for shortstop Masyn Winn, second baseman/third baseman Nolan Gorman and super-utility player Brendan Donovan on the infield along with Alec Burleson and Contreras likely sharing time at first base and designated hitter.

That doesn’t include infielder Thomas Saggese, who impressed at Triple A in 2024 and earned a promotion to the majors late in the season.

While Donovan has played the corner outfield positions in the past, the Cardinals also want regular playing time to go to corner outfielders Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker.

Nootbaar and Walker were the planned starters entering last season, but injury delayed Nootbaar’s start and the Cardinals demoted Walker to the minors a month into the season. The Cardinals still believe they can be impactful offensive performers.

While neither Mozeliak nor Arenado’s camp seem willing to declare a trade a “must” this winter, it’s difficult to see a scenario in which the Cardinals trim payroll, keep Arenado, get all their young players on the field and move Arenado closer to contention as he enters his mid 30s.

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