Juan Soto is a (very rich) Met. What will the Phillies do to stay ahead of their NL East rivals?
Published in Baseball
DALLAS — Pop quiz: Name the player who owns these numbers — .327/.433/.653 (1.086 OPS), 13 homers in the not-so-small sample size of 178 plate appearances — at Citizens Bank Park.
Answer: Juan Soto.
What, you expected someone else?
Soto shook the earth Sunday, opening night of baseball's annual winter meetings, by agreeing to a landmark 15-year, $765 million contract with the New York Mets. Blink away your morning eyes and look at that dollar amount again: $765 million. Do the math: $51 million per year. None of the money is deferred, like Shohei Ohtani's record (for one year) deal with the Dodgers.
And here's the kicker: Soto can opt out after five years, when he will be 31, and reenter the market. Even if he chooses to stay with the Mets, his annual salary will rise to $55 million per year, according to multiple reports, bringing the total value to $805 million.
OK, all together now: Yowza.
But although the money is staggering — and possibly market-altering — it shouldn't come as a complete shock. Soto is a hitting savant, the Ted Williams of his time, who reached free agency before his age-26 season. His combination of talent and youth is nearly as unprecedented as Mets owner Steve Cohen's wealth, even among the baseball owner crowd.
The Phillies neither met with Soto nor made him an offer, multiple sources confirmed. Because although owner John Middleton said last month that he doesn't mind being a "stalking horse" for a star free agent, the Phillies were convinced Soto wanted to play in New York, either for his incumbent team or across town. So, rather than making a bid that they knew they would lose, they left the auction to other big-market brethren.
(Worth noting: Soto's agent, Scott Boras, also represents Bryce Harper, who last year expressed interest in redoing his 13-year, $330 million contract despite lacking opt-out power.)
Now, though, the Phillies must confront the reality that Soto will play in their neighborhood again. The Mets tied for second in the NL East last season, six games off the Phillies' pace, then ousted the Phillies from the postseason in a four-game divisional series triumph. Soto, who finished third in the AL MVP voting in his one-and-done season with the Yankees, was valued at 8.1 wins above replacement, according to Fangraphs.
Could one move bridge — or erase — the Phillies-Mets gap, if it wasn't already gone?
Not necessarily. But what happens next will be significant.
Soto's decision could cause a domino effect in the free-agent market. The Yankees and Red Sox, in particular, are expected to pivot to their contingency plans. Marquee pitchers Corbin Burnes and Max Fried and slugging outfielders Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández could be the next big free agents to come off the board, maybe before the end of the week.
The Phillies continue to look for an outfielder, a right-handed reliever for the late innings, and starting rotation depth. But with a payroll that is butting up against the third luxury-tax threshold ($281 million), they would face a 95% tariff on every dollar spent up to $301 million. And if they push beyond that mark, the tax rate will rise to 110%.
Think of it this way: Signing a free agent for more than $20 million per year would actually amount to nearly a $40 million expenditure.
It's almost certain, then, that the Phillies will be more active in the trade market than free agency, according to multiple major-league sources. And the trade market might not develop until more free agents come off the board.
To wit: If the Astros don't re-sign Alex Bregman, they would be looking for a third baseman (Alec Bohm?). If the Red Sox come up empty for Burnes or Fried, they could trade for a starting pitcher (Ranger Suárez?). And the Phillies could find their relief ace in a trade. Devin Williams (Brewers), Ryan Helsley (Cardinals), and Pete Fairbanks (Rays) are among the closers who could be on the move.
The Phillies could also double down on starting pitching. Although they believe Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola give them a top-of-the-rotation edge over the ace-less Mets, they could make a strength even stronger by cashing in a handful of prospects for hard-throwing White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet.
Or they could court 23-year-old sensation Roki Sasaki, who is expected to be posted by his Japanese team this week. Given his age and relative professional inexperience, Sasaki's contract with a major-league team can be only a fraction of what a typical free agent of his talent level would receive, likely in the $5 million to $7 million range, maybe less.
The Phillies offered more than $325 million last year to Japanese free agent Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who took less to sign with the Dodgers. Los Angeles is the presumptive favorite for Sasaki, too, while the Phillies are seen as a long shot because they have never signed a pitcher directly from Japan.
But there's always time for a first.
(c)2024 The Philadelphia Inquirer Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
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