Tom Krasovic: While Jackson Merrill loses out on ROY award, Padres denied a draft pick

Tom Krasovic, The San Diego Union-Tribune on Nov 19, 2024

Published in Baseball

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SAN DIEGO — Monday’s news was a bummer for the Padres on multiple levels.

There’s just no sugarcoating that bad luck stung them when the National League’s Rookie of the Year award went to Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes.

Jackson Merrill’s impressive season would’ve earned him the award in most years, but Skenes’ historic season landed him 23 of the 30 first-place votes by baseball writers.

The bummer went beyond the fact that Merrill and Padres scouts and developmental staff were deprived recognition for the center fielder’s special year.

The vote denied the Padres a coveted, top-end pick in the 2025 draft. The extra premium draft chip would’ve been much-appreciated as A.J. Preller tries to replenish a farm system from which, in the past 12 months, he traded a trio of first-round draftees and more than five other prospects.

Under the current labor pact adopted in 2021, teams can be awarded a high-end draft pick if one of their players wins the Rookie of the Year award or finishes in the top three of voting for the Cy Young and MVP awards before he qualifies for arbitration. So far, draft picks ranging from the 29th to the 32nd slot have gone to the Mariners, Diamondbacks and Orioles, respectively. The signing bonuses for the players drafted ranged from $2.7 million to $3.2 million.

An upper-round draft pick is valuable not only because it delivers a player a team’s scouts believe can return “surplus value” to the big-league club for several years or sweeten a team’s trade offers, but also because it expands a scouting director’s options with other high-end draft picks.

(From 2004 comes a negative example about how premium-pick volume can influence draft strategy. The Padres lacked a second-round pick, which fed into their poor decision to draft Matt Bush first overall rather than Stephen Drew, whom many of their scouts preferred. The Padres knew they could draft Bush but, mindful of team owner John Moores’ disdain for agent Scott Boras, feared they might not sign Drew, meaning their draft class, in effect, would have begun in the third round.)

Increasing the Skenes-related downer for the Padres is that Preller and staff made all the right moves involving Merrill, and Merrill responded with a tour de force season that featured clutch home runs and wire-to-wire production.

The Padres drafted Merrill 27th overall out of his Maryland high school and signed him fast enough that he played 31 games later that season, getting his professional career off to a quick start

Entering last season, Preller and staff judged that Merrill, despite playing only 200 games in the minor leagues, should be on their 2024 opening-day roster. Coupled with Merrill having appeared on at least two of three MLB-approved Top 100 prospect lists, the promotion qualified Merrill as a candidate to bring the Padres a top draft pick if he won the Rookie of the Year award.

The Padres were sold on Merrill’s bat-to-ball skill, maturity and athleticism. Also, they believed he could handle the move from shortstop to center field.

In a further display of the staff’s conviction in Merrill, Preller traded center fielder Trent Grisham and his $5.5 million salary last December, then dealt four minor-league center fielders in the following seven months. Each one of those trades contributed to the ’24 team winning 93 games and a playoff berth.

The window to a Merrill-related compensatory draft pick isn’t shut.

A top-three finish in either the 2025 or 2026 MVP votes would bring the Padres a pick.

Forgive the Padres if they’re feeling skeptical about the voters’ aptitude going forward.

The Pirates, for their part, won’t get a draft pick despite Skenes winning the award.

That’s because he started the 2024 season in the minor leagues, where he made seven starts. The decision was likely meant to deny Skenes enough work-service time this year to forestall his eligibility for arbitration and free agency. In winning the ROY, though, Skenes gains credit for a full year of service time.

My view on who should have won: Merrill was the best choice as an everyday player who logged 155 games and provided a high-value offensive season, good defense at a premium position and 16 stolen bases in 19 tries. Skenes was spectacular as well, posting the lowest ERA (1.96) by a rookie pitcher, a span of 112 years. A strong statistical case can be marshaled for each player.

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