ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — At the time, the moment seemed unremarkable. A ground ball to Taylor Walls. An underhand flip to Jose Caballero to force Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at second base. A completed 4-3 Rays victory in their final home game of a frustrating 2024 season.

Is it really possible that was the closing act in the life of Tropicana Field?

Or, even worse, of Major League Baseball in St. Petersburg?

While nothing is official, it’s appears likely that a historic deal to build a new $1.3 billion stadium at the Tropicana Field site is all but dead. And, consequently, baseball’s future in Tampa Bay is at greater risk than ever before.

The Pinellas County Commission has already postponed one vote on bonds that would go toward the financing of the ballpark and appears poised to delay it again Tuesday. The setback has already disrupted a series of deadlines that have halted construction plans and would likely cause a significant increase in the cost of the project.

An increase that, under the terms of the deal, would be entirely the team’s responsibility.

“Last month, the County Commission upended our ballpark agreement by not approving their bonds, as they promised to do,” team owner Stuart Sternberg said. “That action sent a clear message that we had lost the county as a partner.

“The future of baseball in Tampa Bay became less certain after that vote.”

And while the stadium deal might be dead because the county stalled the bond vote, the rest of the proposed $6.5 billion redevelopment deal might still be under the Rays control with their partner Hines.

There’s a decent chance that situation will end up in court, but the Rays could reap millions from redeveloping the Trop land while moving the team and building a stadium elsewhere.

What about Tropicana Field?

On top of that, there is growing concern that planned repairs of Tropicana Field’s roof will greatly exceed an initial $56 million estimate, and the St. Petersburg City Council could balk at approving the expenditure for a stadium slated for demolition in three to four years.

If the council is reluctant to pay for repairs beyond their $25 million insurance policy, the Rays would essentially become free to consider the possibility of a permanent relocation away from Tampa Bay as soon as 2026. The Rays announced Thursday they will play the 2025 season at the Yankees spring training stadium in Tampa.

“We’re going to exhaust all that we can here until, and unless, it comes to that,” Sternberg told the Tampa Bay Times. “We’ve been in that sort of position before, in a sense, but without an expiring clock. An expiring clock that just exploded, basically. If we had 10 years, 12 years left, it’s a different conversation. If we had one year left, it’s probably a different conversation. If we had no plans to do a stadium here, it’s a different conversation.

“But, as you point out, it’s a confluence of events and without the minds here coming together, (relocation) is not an unlikely conclusion.”

A deal years in the making

Back in July, the Tampa Bay area celebrated a generational $6.5 billion redevelopment plan for the Historic Gas Plant district where Tropicana now sits and a new stadium would open for the 2028 season. The deal was the culmination of 17 years of plotting, proposing and dismissing stadium projects to keep the Rays in Tampa Bay before their use agreement at Tropicana Field was scheduled to run out at the end of 2027.

And now, months later, the rug could be pulled out from underneath.

Or, more accurately, blown away from above.

The extensive damage to the Trop roof inflicted by Hurricane Milton on Oct. 9 would likely be remembered as the defining image of the deal’s demise, but there have been other less-celestial events that have potentially doomed the prospects for a new stadium.

In the hurricane’s wake, October bond votes scheduled by the City Council ($287.5 million) and County Commission ($312.5 million) were postponed for a month. The timeline was already tight for a planned groundbreaking in early 2025, and the bond votes were supposed to go hand-in-hand with requirements the Rays have been working toward. The team needed to have its $700 million financing plan in place, secure a $100 million loan from Major League Baseball and have 50% of the design documents completed, among other things. It was a cascading series of benchmarks with virtually no wiggle room.

The issue was exacerbated when the delays took the council and commission beyond the Nov. 5 election that altered the makeup of both entities. Now, it’s not simply a delay on bonds but a reexamination of the deal itself, led by commissioners Chris Latvala and Dave Eggers. What was once a 5-2 vote in favor of the redevelopment project by the commission is now potentially a 4-3 vote against it.

“If we want to take our time, we can take our time,” Latvala said Thursday morning at a commission workshop. “I don’t, you know, I don’t think we should be rushed. And if the bonds fall through, so be it.”

Latvala’s saber-rattling and the bond delays caused the Rays to push the pause button on Tuesday with their development partner (Hines), architect (Populous) and other entities that were in the process of setting up close to 100 employees to relocate to Pinellas County for extended stays.

While it’s possible to amend the development deal or renegotiate a new one with city and county approval, the financing component would change if the ballpark’s opening is pushed back to 2029, or later.

Even a one-year delay could cause construction costs to increase. On a $1.3 billion stadium, a 10% increase would mean an extra cost of $130 million for the Rays. The team is also looking at significant losses of revenue for as many as four seasons (2025-2028) while the team plays in smaller-capacity minor league stadiums if Tropicana is not repaired.

Sternberg said he could reconcile the idea of lost revenue from playing in smaller parks, but not if the new stadium remains in limbo.

“That (loss) is going to happen regardless. It shouldn’t have an effect on a 30-year opportunity and commitment,” he said. “The 30-year commitment just got a lot more difficult — dramatically more difficult — to do because of what happened. Whether we lose an extra $25 million or $45 million a year for three or four years, we’re going to lose, but you still want to come out on the end with something that makes sense.”

The temporary home debate

While Eggers and Latvala have long been critical of the original redevelopment deal, Latvala sent the complaints into overdrive when he began questioning why the Rays did not make a deal with the Phillies to use BayCare Ballpark in Clearwater as their temporary home.

BayCare Ballpark has substantially fewer fixed seats than Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, and its behind-the-scenes amenities would need major upgrades to satisfy MLB’s players association. The Phillies have been seeking public financing for a planned $320 million makeover at their spring training and minor league facilities. Latvala’s father, Jack, received a donation from the Phillies for one of his political committees not long before Chris won his commission seat.

The county’s share of funding for the proposed stadium comes from tourism revenue in the area.

“If the Rays don’t want our bed tax money, they can play wherever they want. They can build a new stadium in Tampa,” said Clearwater Mayor Bruce Rector, who called the Rays on Thursday to voice his displeasure about the team using Steinbrenner Field instead of BayCare Ballpark.

“But if they want our county and the city of St. Petersburg to fund (almost half) of it, I don’t think it’s an unreasonable expectation to expect them to work with us and to collaborate to make everyone feel good about the funding for the new stadium. Particularly for a county that’s recovering from two major hurricanes in two weeks. It would go a long way toward getting my support and the commission’s support if they would just be willing to work with us through this transition.”

Even if the Rays played at BayCare Ballpark, it would likely be a short-term solution. Between summer heat and rain, the team is concerned that remaining at a spring training park would lead to lengthy delays and postponements of games. The Florida State League has survived here for more than a century, but a shorter season and dramatically less attendance makes it easier for minor league teams to live with the consequences of rainouts and delays.

If Tropicana Field is not repaired, it would not be surprising if the Rays opted to find a Triple-A ballpark with a larger capacity outside of Florida for 2026.

“We’re trying to minimize the hurt,” team president Matt Silverman said.

While there is a legitimate rationale behind the idea of requiring the Rays to remain in Pinellas County during a temporary relocation, the idea does ignore certain realities about MLB’s requirements for stadiums and the players association’s potential demands. And risking a 30-year commitment over a short-term rental seems shortsighted.

Not to mention, the county’s share of funding comes from a pot of money that has drastic limitations on how it can be spent.

“The basic part of the deal that I voted on a few months ago, I still believe in,” County Commissioner Brian Scott said at Thursday’s workshop. “Just to remind everybody (Tourist Development Council) funds we cannot (use to) rebuild people’s homes or rebuild people’s businesses. They’re highly restricted. We can’t pave roads with them. We can’t pay first responders with them, but we can fund sports facilities with them.

“We will recover from these hurricanes. We will. For decades after Helene and Milton are in our rearview mirror, that development is going to continue to spin off general fund dollars to this county that does benefit our residents that we’re not getting today. So I just want to make sure that we’re also considering the long view on this and that we’re not making a knee-jerk reaction based on the trouble and strife that we’re dealing with now.”

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