Ready, set, shop! Tony Paul's top 50 MLB free agents, with predictions.
Published in Baseball
The Detroit News' Tony Paul breaks down his top 50 free agents in the MLB offseason, along with his predictions (all ages are as of April 1, 2025).
— 1. Juan Soto (26), RF: He's this winter's Shohei Ohtani, so let the bidding war begin for a guy who might've been a bit overlooked on his own team (Aaron Judge!?!), but certainly won't be overlooked this winter. He says he's available for all 30 teams. Sorry, Tigers fans. Unless he comes with a parking lot, Chris Ilitch almost surely isn't interested in the price tag. Prediction: Mets, 10 years, $510 million
— 2. Alex Bregman (31), 3B: The Astros lifer hasn't been able to replicate his best season in 2019, when he posted a 1.015 OPS and was nearly a 9.0 WAR player. But he's still a top-tier offensive and defensive player who also bats right-handed and, of course, has a connection to Tigers manager AJ Hinch. You'd figure this would be priority 1A for Detroit. Prediction: Tigers, four years, $140 million
— 3. Corbin Burnes (30), SP: This right-hander has been among the game's best pitchers for four seasons, winning a Cy Young with Milwaukee in 2021 and really flourishing down the stretch for Baltimore in 2024. In his last four starts in 2024, including two against the Tigers, one against the Yankees and one in the playoffs, he allowed two earned runs in 27 innings. Prediction: Red Sox, five years, $140 million
— 4. Willy Adames (29), SS: Ten years ago, he was the prospect throw-in in the blockbuster trade that brought ace pitcher David Price to the Tigers. Now, he's set to hit free agency as the best shortstop on the market as a three-plus WAR player each of the last four seasons. Adames just set career highs in home runs (32) and RBIs (112) for the Brewers. Prediction: Blue Jays, five years, $110 million
— 5. Blake Snell (32), SP: The lefty, who won Cy Youngs in 2018 with the Rays and 2023 with the Padres, settled for a two-year contract with the Giants last offseason as the market crashed on starters. He opted out and is a headliner in free agency for a second straight winter, returning from injury in mid-July to post a 1.23 ERA over his last 14 starts. Prediction: Rangers, four years, $125 million
— 6. Gleyber Torres (28), 2B: It wasn't his best year, but he's a productive second baseman in a market thin on those, so he'll have suitors. His OPS dropped nearly 100 points from 2023, as strikeouts went way up — perhaps trying to increase homers ahead of free agency. It backfired, but he's still valuable, as basically a three-WAR player the last three years. Prediction: Mariners, four years, $70 million
— 7. Anthony Santander (30), RF: For teams that miss out in the Soto sweepstakes, "Tony Taters" could be a pretty good consolation. He's coming off a monster season (44 homers, 102 RBIs) in which more than half his hits went for extra bases. He's played his entire career in hitter-friendly Baltimore, so that'll be something to keep an eye on as suitors start lining up. Prediction: Reds, four years, $90 million
— 8. Teoscar Hernandez (32), RF: In his first venture into the National League, he had zero problem adjusting, becoming an All-Star again and winning a World Series with the Dodgers. Hernandez hit a career-high 33 homers to go with 99 RBIs, and he was huge in the postseason, with three homers and 12 RBIs. Quite the bargain on a one-year deal. The next deal won't be. Prediction: Dodgers, three years, $90 million
— 9. Max Fried (31), SP: For not being necessarily the prototypical strikeout pitcher, the veteran knows how to get outs, with a WHIP of 1.093 over the last five seasons. The left-hander, a free agent for the first time, misses barrels better than most, and holds runners better than most. He bounced back nicely from hamstring and forearm issues in 2023. Prediction: Cubs, five years, $122 million
— 10. Pete Alonso (30), 1B: The "Polar Bear" wasn't quite as ferocious in 2024, dipping to 34 homers, 88 RBIs and a .788 OPS, but he remains a major threat at the plate, with his heroics lifting the Mets past the Brewers in the wild-card round. He had 46 home runs as recently as a year ago, and 131 RBIs as recently as two years ago, when he was an MVP candidate. Prediction: Mets, four years, $95 million
— 11. Roki Sasaki (23), SP: Here's the name to watch from Japan, for teams with money left in their international signing bonus pool. The right-hander is 30-15 with a 2.02 ERA, 0.883 WHIP and 524 strikeouts in 414 2/3 innings as a pro. Prediction: Yankees, three years, $6 million
— 12. Christian Walker (34), 1B: Teams in need of a slugging first baseman will choose between Walker and Alonso. Walker is the better defender, with multiple Gold Gloves. Prediction: Astros, four years, $100 million
— 13. Yusei Kikuchi (33), SP: The lefty boosted his stock after he was traded from Toronto (4-9, 4.75 ERA) to Houston (5-1, 2.70 ERA) at the deadline. It'll be interesting to see where the Astros stand, given the haul they gave up. Prediction: Orioles, four years, $88 million
— 14. Jack Flaherty (29), SP: The latest starting pitcher to revive his career with the Tigers, the right-hander then went close to home and won a ring with the Dodgers. He was great with Detroit, even with back pain, and pretty good with L.A. Prediction: Dodgers, four years, $90 million
— 15. Joc Pederson (32), DH: A down season forced the slugger to sign a short-term deal last winter with Arizona. He bounced back, with a .908 OPS, and now wants to get paid, opting out of his contract with the Diamondbacks. Prediction: Angels, three years, $50 million
— 16. Ha-Seong Kim (29), SS: It was a down year offensively, in a season cut short by a shoulder injury that led to surgery. But he's betting on himself in a market that's short on shortstops, opting out of his deal with the Padres. Prediction: Giants, four years, $58 million
— 17. Nick Martinez (34), SP: The right-hander was the ultimate swingman for the Reds in 2024, relieving all of June and July, before joining the rotation and sticking in August and September. He had a career-best 4.0 WAR and 1.026 WHIP. Prediction: Twins, four years, $60 million
— 18. Sean Manaea (33), SP: The lefty proved to be the ace of the staff on a Mets team that made a surprising run to the playoffs, but it's going to cost them to keep him, after he opted out of the two-year deal he signed before 2024. Prediction: Mets, three years, $57 million
— 19. Max Scherzer (40), SP: The ex-Tiger and three-time Cy Young winner has battled injuries the last three seasons, making just nine starts with the Rangers in 2024. But the righty's resume assures there'll be plenty of interest. Prediction: Brewers, one year, $18 million
— 20. Justin Verlander (42), SP: The ex-Tiger and three-time Cy Young winner (including 2022!) wants to pitch until he's 45, and who's going to write the righty off, even off his worst season which kept him off the Astros' playoff roster? Prediction: Braves, one year, $15 million
— 21. Shane Bieber (29), SP: The 2020 Cy Young winner made just two starts for the Guardians in 2024 before the right-hander had Tommy John surgery. He's an intriguing free agent, especially on a short-term deal to build up stock. Prediction: Angels, two years, $32 million
— 22. Tyler O'Neill (29), LF: He hasn't been able to replicate the success he had back in 2021, when he finished eighth in NL MVP voting, but he's still a very attractive option for teams who can't blow the bank on a top-tier outfielder. Prediction: Royals, four years, $48 million
— 23. Carlos Santana (38), 1B: He'll be 39 in early April and isn't quite the power threat from his heyday. He was a bargain for the Twins in 2024 and could be for another team in 2025, especially off his first Gold Glove. Prediction: Yankees, two years, $28 million
— 24. Jurickson Profar (32), LF: This was a major bounce-back season, an increase in WAR by 5.0 — from minus-1.3 in 2023 to 3.6 in 2024, with 24 homers, 85 RBIs and an .839 OPS. He clearly has found his comfort zone in San Diego. Prediction: Padres, three years, $24 million
— 25. Tanner Scott (30), RP: It took a while to get to a true reliever on this top-50 list, but if there's one to watch, it's Scott, a left-hander who is averaging 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings for his eight-year career. Prediction: Phillies, three years, $45 million
— 26. Jose Quintana (36), SP: The veteran lefty was back to his reliable self, after being limited to just 13 starts with the Mets in 2023 because of a rib injury. The 2.14 strikeouts-to-walks ratio is a bit of a concern, though. Prediction: Guardians, two years, $28 million
— 27. Jeff Hoffman (32), RP: The right-hander was dynamite in the back end of the Phillies' bullpen, posting a career-best 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings and was an All-Star for the first time. He has a 0.944 WHIP the last two years. Prediction: Diamondbacks, three years, $26 million
— 28. J.D. Martinez (37), DH: His late signing with the Mets didn't help. He didn't debut till late April and never got into a groove, with his worst OPS (.725) in a full season since the Tigers resurrected his career a decade ago. Prediction: Reds, two years, $25 million
— 29. Nick Pivetta (32), SP: The 6-12 record and 4.14 ERA were a bit unlucky, as the peripherals were good for the Red Sox right-hander, with a 1.126 WHIP and 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings. And those numbers were even better in 2023. Prediction: Nationals, three years, $35 million
— 30. Kyle Higashioka (34), C: He came to the Padres from the Yankees in the Soto deal, and he had a fine year, with career highs in homers (17), RBIs (45) and OPS (.739). He now gets to test a market that's thin on catchers. Prediction: Padres, three years, $30 million
— 31. Nathan Eovaldi (35), SP: The veteran right-hander earned himself a $20 million deal with the Rangers for 2025 buy pitching 300 innings in 2023-24, but a bit surprisingly, he declined it and will test the free-agent market. Prediction: Cardinals, three years, $45 million
— 32. Travis d'Arnaud (36), C: In just 99 games, he had 15 home runs and 48 RBIs to go with a decent .739 OPS in 2024, but quite surprisingly, the Braves shot down his reasonable $8 million option for 2025. Prediction: Marlins, two years, $22 million
— 33. Kenley Jansen (37), RP: The veteran closer's strikeouts per nine innings were at a career low for the Red Sox in 2024, but they still were at 10.2, which is definitely elite. The right-hander had 27 saves and a 1.061 WHIP. Prediction: Rangers, two years, $28 million
— 34. Michael Lorenzen (33), SP: The Tigers got the right-hander's career turned around in 2023; he was solid with the Rangers and excellent with the Royals in 2024. He didn't get the multiyear deal last winter but should this time. Prediction: Cubs, two years, $26 million
— 35. Paul Goldschmidt (37), 1B: An MVP for the Cardinals just two years ago, he fell off drastically in 2023 and even more in 2024, posting his worst season, production wise, with a .716 OPS, to go with just 22 homers and 65 RBIs. Prediction: Pirates, two years, $30 million
— 36. David Robertson (39), RP: The veteran righty turns 40 in April, but he still brings it, with 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings in 2024, his best since 2017. Hence, why he declined his $7 million option for 2025 with the Rangers. Prediction: Diamondbacks, two years, $21 million
— 37. Jorge Polanco (31), 2B: He spent his first 10 seasons with the Twins, then he wasn't good with the Mariners in 2024, with a .651 OPS. He had knee surgery in October, and his option was declined, but he's a bounce-back candidate. Prediction: Red Sox, three years, $29 million
— 38. Luis Severino (31), SP: The right-hander once was beast for the Yankees, before Tommy John surgery. He's been slowly getting right, and he took a big step in 2024. In the right situation, he could be primed for greatness again. Prediction: Tigers, three years, $48 million
— 39. Andrew McCutchen (38), DH: He's more than a decade removed from his peak, when he was a perennial MVP candidate (and MVP in 2013), but he's useful, with 20 homers and 50 RBIs in 2024. It's hard to see him leaving the Pirates again. Prediction: Pirates, one year, $8 million
— 40. Jose Iglesias (35), 2B: We didn't have him on our bingo card making the top 50 after the ex-Tiger bounced from one minor-league job to another in 2023. But he had a 3.1 WAR with the Mets in 2024, and a hit single, "OMG," to boot. Prediction: Mets, two years, $18 million
— 41. Trevor Williams (32), SP: For teams seeking value, this right-hander fits the bill. He missed three-plus months with a flexor muscle strain in 2024 with the Nationals, but when he pitched, he was great (1.035 WHIP, 2.03 ERA). Prediction: Orioles, two years, $26 million
— 42. Charlie Morton (41), SP: The right-hander isn't the dominant pitcher he was five years ago, but he's still plenty valuable, making 124 starts over the last four years with the Braves. He still allows fewer hits than innings. Prediction: Giants, two years, $30 million
— 43. Matthew Boyd (34), SP: The former Tigers left-hander came back from Tommy John surgery and proved a boon for the Guardians, with eight starts down the stretch, then three in the postseason — two against the Tigers. Prediction: Guardians, two years, $26 million
— 44. Carlos Estevez (32), RP: Any pitcher who can thrive in Colorado, as this righty closer did in 2022, is worth keeping tabs on. He posted a career-best 0.909 WHIP in 2024, split between the Angels and Phillies, down from 1.492 in 2023. Prediction: Red Sox, three years, $24 million
— 45. Justin Turner (40), 1B: The production dropped noticeably from 2023 (23 homers, 96 RBIs, .800 OPS) to 2024 (11, 55, .737), a year split between the Blue Jays and Mariners. But for a team with budget restrictions, you can do worse. Prediction: Mariners, one year, $15 million
— 46. Harrison Bader (30), CF: He can be a streaky hitter, but the production came back as he provided a spark for the Mets (12 homers, 51 RBIs) in 2024. He might be squeezed out of Queens, but there will be suitors for his defense alone. Prediction: A's, one year, $12 million
— 47. Andrew Heaney (33), SP: The lefty is still good for almost a strikeout an inning, though his K's per nine have dropped noticeably the last two years with the Rangers, after peaking at 13.6 in 2022 with the Dodgers. Prediction: White Sox, two years, $22 million
— 48. Clay Holmes (32), RP: The right-hander has saved 74 games the last three years with the Yankees, though it's worth noting the WHIP has risen steadily in that span, to 1.302 in 2024, when he was up and down in the playoffs. Prediction: Red Sox, three years, $33 million
— 49. Danny Coulombe (35), RP: Despite missing much of the year with an elbow injury, it was a surprise to see the Orioles decline his modest $4 million option. He had a 0.674 WHIP in 33 games and a 1.110 WHIP in 61 games in 2023. Prediction: Blue Jays, three years, $29 million
— 50. Walker Buehler (30), SP: The right-hander had his struggles in his return from Tommy John surgery, after missing all of 2023, though he did get the final out of the World Series. He's a prime candidate for a resurgent season. Prediction: Tigers, two years, $24 million
The next 60 (in alphabetical order)
Scott Alexander, RP; Scott Barlow, RP; Jacob Barnes, RP; Jalen Beeks, RP; Mark Canha, OF; Andrew Chafin, RP; Aroldis Chapman, RP; Jesse Chavez, RP; Alex Cobb, SP; Michael Conforto, OF; Paul DeJong, SS; Buck Farmer, RP; Chris Flexen, SP; Dylan Floro, RP; Joey Gallo, 1B; Yimi García, RP; Kyle Gibson, SP; Yasmani Grandal, C; Randal Grichuk, RF; Jason Heyward, RF; Tim Hill, RP; Eloy Jimenez, DH; Jakob Junis, RP; Tommy Kahnle, RP; Max Kepler, RF; Craig Kimbrel, RP; Andrew Kittredge, RP; Jose Leclerc, RP; Jorge Lopez, RP; Chris Martin, RP; Phil Maton, RP; James McCann, C; T.J. McFarland, RP; Whit Merrifield, 2B; Shelby Miller, RP; A.J. Minter, RP; Yoan Moncada, 3B; Frankie Montas, SP; Kevin Newman, SS; Adam Ottavino, RP; Martin Perez, SP; Colin Rea, SP; Anthony Rizzo, 1B; Joe Ross, RP; Paul Sewald, RP; Donovan Solano, 1B; Gary Sanchez, C; Drew Smyly, SP; Jacob Stallings, C; Hunter Strickland, RP; Brent Suter, RP; Michael A. Taylor, CF; Blake Treinen, RP; Lou Trivino, RP; Spencer Turnbull, SP; Luis Urias, 3B; Gio Urshela, 3B; Alex Verdugo, LF; Ryan Yarbrough, RP; Kirby Yates, RP
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