David Murphy: The story of Game 3 is the story of the NLDS: the Mets have been better than the Phillies

Rarely can the story of a baseball game be reduced to one pitch. Game 3 of the National League Division Series was not an exception. But there was a pitch that spoke volumes: not about the Phillies’ failures, or the Mets' successes, but about the razor thin margins that often separate the two.

That it was Bryce Harper on the losing side of the pitch in question only adds to the complexity of assigning blame for a loss that leaves the Phillies one game from elimination in a postseason that seemed theirs to win. When he stepped into the batter’s box with two out in the third inning on Tuesday, the Phillies’ first baseman did so with a career postseason OPS that trailed only Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth among players with at least 150 plate appearances. His 17 career postseason home runs were tied for 14th all time. If you were to pick a player you’d want at the plate when a pitcher hangs an 0-1 sweeper with two men on base, Harper would be on a very short list of ideal options. It just so happens that, in this particular instance, Harper missed it by an inch.

In the wake of a 7-2 loss to the Mets that leaves the Phillies a game away from elimination in a postseason that seemed theirs for the taking, Harper will be remembered mostly for how that third-inning at-bat ended, as well as for the at-bats that followed. After fouling off that eminently crushable 0-1 pitch, he grounded out on an 0-2 sweeper, ending the inning and providing Mets lefty Sean Manaea with a boost of momentum that wound up propelling him through seven magnificent innings. Later, in the sixth inning, Manaea got Harper to swing and miss at three straight good pitches, this time with two men on and nobody out.

The moral of the story is that, sometimes, there is no moral. There is nothing that anybody can write that will tell you more than you saw with your own two eyes on Tuesday night. The Phillies got beat, and they got beat like every team can get beat in a nine-inning game. The Mets were the better team on Tuesday. They have been the better team all series. The tricky part isn’t diagnosing why that was the case. The tricky part is deciding what can be done to solve it.

The few answers that exist are mostly for the long-term. Little that we’ve seen of the Phillies this series has been out of character. They have been the worst version of themselves, yes. But they have been themselves: forcing the issue, leaving themselves in bad counts, chasing bad pitches, living and dying on the long ball. Should they lose this series, they will need to ask themselves whether they need to become less like themselves. Is there a way to strike some balance in this lineup, not only between the top and bottom of the order but in the skill sets that exist at all levels.

Rob Thomson tried to do it in Game 3, with the tools he had at his disposal. Righty Edmundo Sosa started at second base for Bryson Stott. Righty Austin Hays started in left field for Brandon Marsh. The results were little different than they have been at every point of this series save the last four innings of Game 2.

It’s certainly notable that the trend goes back to the last two games of last year’s National League Championship Series. For the fourth time in their last five postseason games, the Phillies failed to score more than two runs or generate more than six hits.

At the same time, this is the same team who did in 2022 as the Mets are doing this season, the same team who followed it up by getting to the verge of a second straight World Series in 2023. We’ve seen the Phillies overcome the odds enough times that it would be foolish to render any definitive judgments right now. The NLCS is still just back-to-back wins away.

The Phillies need to be better. They need to be smarter. But they also need to execute. That, more than anything, is what the Mets did better than them in Game 3. That’s the trickiest thing, both in playing baseball and rendering judgment on how it is played. It is far easier said than done.