Bob Wojnowski: As playoff underdogs, Tigers try to pull their biggest surprise yet

DETROIT — We’ve never seen a team like this. Truth is, neither has major-league baseball.

The Tigers have a roster virtually devoid of playoff experience, a pitching rotation virtually devoid of starters, and a transcendent star virtually devoid of ego. They’re in the playoffs or the first time in 10 years and about to face the Houston Astros, who are in the playoffs for the eighth consecutive season, with two World Series championships.

Nobody picked the Tigers to be here, and not many expect them to beat the Astros in a three-game series, with all the games in Houston. But then, if it was about predictions, the Tigers would be home picking apples by now.

Ask them if they know what to expect when the series opens Tuesday, they shrug. And maybe that makes it a fairer fight, because the Astros don’t know what to expect from the Tigers. Their historic recovery from midseason oblivion is hard to explain, which is how they like it.

“One of the characteristics that I love about this team is how unpredictable we are,” manager AJ Hinch said. “And we’re about to play in the most unpredictable month of the season.”

Unpredictable time, unpredictable team. The secret to the Tigers’ surprise rise is in the details. Lefty Tarik Skubal emerged as baseball’s most dominant pitcher, the Cy Young Award lock after posting the American League's first full-season Triple Crown — victories (18), ERA (2.39) and strikeouts (228) — in 13 years. Skubal will start the opener, but who pitches after that? Ha. In the Tigers’ unique rotation, the starter could be Reese Olson, or it could an “opener” such as Beau Brieske or Brant Hurter or Tyler Holton or any of the arms in baseball’s deepest bullpen.

The Tigers kept losing starters to injury or trade, and Hinch and pitching coach Chris Fetter kept patching and plugging. Their team ERA ranks third in the majors (the Astros are sixth), and their offense is 24th in batting average, while the Astros are third. The Tigers went 2-4 against them in the regular season.

The most impressive numbers about the Tigers are the odds. On Aug. 11, they were 55-63 and had less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs. Before dropping the final two meaningless games against the White Sox last weekend, the Tigers were on a major-league-best 31-11 roll and finished 86-76.

They’re the second team ever to make the playoffs after being eight or more games under .500 in August, joining the 1973 Mets. They’re the first team in history, according to OptaSTATS, to reach the postseason without having a single hitter with more than 150 hits, 75 RBIs or 25 home runs. Their top run producers are Riley Greene, 24, and Kerry Carpenter, 27, and they have seven position players under the age of 25.

Unprecedented. Unpredictable.

Exuberance versus experience.

Skubal has battled injuries in the past and pitched only two full seasons out of five. In the heat of the postseason ― and the heat of Houston ― the experience deficit would seem to be an issue. I mean, how can it not?

“I can counter and say we’re naive,” Skubal said with a grin. “It doesn’t matter. I think our last month has kinda been playoff baseball. It’s gonna be fun, and I think our guys are gonna respond.”

There’s no room for error in a short series. To have a chance, the Tiger almost certainly have to win the opener Tuesday (2:32 p.m.) at Minute Maid Park. Skubal, 27, will make his playoff debut against Astros ace Framber Valdez, 30, who has pitched in 16 postseason games.

It won’t be anything new for the seasoned Astros, but it’ll be a swirl of emotion and excitement for the Tigers. Hinch managed the Astros from 2015-19 and won the World Series in 2017. He was fired in 2020 after a sign-stealing scandal and was suspended for a year.

Hinch makes it clear this isn’t about him, and expresses gratitude the Tigers gave him another chance four years ago. The redemption angle may be irrelevant. The experience angle may be too. Hinch has managed three teams over 11 years. Astros manager Joe Espada is in his first season.

But Houston’s lineup is packed with playoff veterans such as Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and slugging star Yordan Alvarez, who may return from a knee injury. The Tigers have one regular with playoff experience in Matt Vierling, who logged 12 postseason games with the Phillies in 2022. His message to teammates when they ask? Pretty simple.

“Just enjoy it,” Vierling said. “You’re gonna get the butterflies, you’re gonna get excited, nervous, anxious, the whole thing. Just be excited and embrace it. We got a chance to do something special.”

It would be especially special because for all the noise the Tigers have generated, they won’t get to hear it again in Comerica Park unless they advance to the next round against Cleveland. The motivation to repay the home fans is real.

If that carries inordinate pressure, the Tigers claim they don’t sense it. After all, they led baseball in comeback victories and one-run games. Hinch’s unorthodox pitching plan, using multiple relievers to start games, can surprise opponents who don’t know what’s coming, or who’s coming, or when.

In sports, the team not expected to win theoretically plays looser, which makes the Tigers one of those classic dangerous underdogs.

“What I believe is, when you get to the playoffs, everybody’s dangerous,” Hinch said. “Everybody gets there in their own way, with their strengths and trying to shield their weaknesses. October comes and it’s a whole new season. In the span of me going from this press conference to the shower, we will forget everything about where we’ve been. I’ve watched over the years, and teams that were unexpected to be there, go off and reach the World Series. And I’ve seen teams built as good as can be, not get out of the first round.”

Beyond the experience factor, the Astros have some matchup advantages, including a starting rotation so deep, they won’t need to rely on former Tiger Justin Verlander, who has battled a neck injury. Their top two starters — Valdez and Yusei Kikuchi — are lefties, who can be difficult on Detroit’s lefty-heavy lineup, and Detroiter Hunter Brown is an excellent third option.

The Tigers have one, maybe two starters, and a bullpen loaded with options. Brieske is one of the versatile mainstays, as likely to open a game, or pitch the middle innings, or be around at the end.

There’s a valid comparison here with the Lions, who broke Detroit’s playoff drought last season, and now the good-vibe victories are spreading. In fact, if the Tigers hadn’t made the playoffs, several players were planning to attend the Lions’ Monday night game against Seattle. The Lions may own the “grit” label, but they surely can split some grit with the Tigers and their grinders.

“I think the bullpen is similar to the offensive line, you don’t notice them until they’re not good,” Brieske said. “When you have a good offensive line, the team just runs better. And when you have a good bullpen, you take it for granted. It’s a few innings every game, and a lot of times you look back and say, wow, those were probably the biggest innings.”

The bullpen guys are relatively anonymous, and also interchangeable. Hinch has done a marvelous job stitching together what seemed impossible, and making it real. Someone asked him the other day if it’s dream-like, so he has to pinch himself.

“No pinching,” Hinch said. “This team is incredible, both in how we come every day ready to play, and also how we handle both the success and the grind.”

No pinching, no flinching. It’s been their mindset for two months, and it’s why they get to experience the tension of October baseball, with a chance to turn the unpredictable into the unforgettable.

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