When an angry mob of thousands of supporters of President Donald Trump descended on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, most in the crowd had no history of activism, prior arrests or even much of a plan.

But among their number were members of far-right groups the Oath Keepers and the Proud Boys who had prepared for the moment as well as smaller numbers from white supremacist groups and neo-fascists who want to see American democracy dissolve and be replaced with a dystopian vision of their own. In the wake of the riot, they became key figures in the Justice Department’s massive investigation, with key leaders earning long prison sentences.

As a result, experts say they expect very little in the way of marches, violence or other displays by extremist groups during Trump’s inaugural weekend because it comes as organizations on the far right are weakened and disorganized by years of criminal prosecutions and civil suits, not only from Jan. 6 but also from debacles like 2017′s Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Virginia.

“It’s hit on so many of the far-right organizations, and just sent a chill right across the movement that you should watch what you do, don’t put yourself in a position to get arrested,” said Heidi Beirich, cofounder of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism. “I think that has a lot to do with why we didn’t see much mobilization this year from the far right. It just didn’t happen.”

Luke Baumgartner, a research fellow with George Washington University’s Program on Extremism, said the Oath Keepers “are in some sense dead.”

“The Proud Boys still exist, although with a smaller footprint than before,” he said.

Pardons and deportations

In Georgia, the antigovernment militias, white supremacists, Proud Boys chapters and antisemitic activists like the Goyim Defense League that were active for the past decade more recently have either disbanded or receded from public view. But academics and watchdogs who keep an eye on extremist groups nationwide agree Trump’s reelection has far-right activists reinvigorated online, but that hasn’t translated into the kind of real-world activity that characterized earlier volatile years.

“I wouldn’t say they’re in support of the incoming administration, but they’re enthusiastic about what they believe the administration is going to prioritize,” said Morgan Moon, an investigative researcher with the Anti Defamation League’s Center on Extremism. “So, I kind of have the same sense of it will be a quiet inauguration.”

Trump’s promise of mass deportations of immigrants who lack permanent legal status and promises of pardons for Jan. 6 defendants are attractive to far-right extremists, even if they think Trump doesn’t go far enough, she said. More than 40 people with Georgia connections have been charged in the Jan. 6 investigation.

“I think if it had been closer or Trump had lost, we might have seen something,” Beirich said. “But since that didn’t happen — and Trump’s win was pretty resounding — what they’ve mostly been doing is writing on the internet about how great this is.”

Rather than make a public display in Washington, Beirich said some remaining Proud Boy channels on the messaging app Telegram have advised members to stay home and hope the group’s imprisoned leaders get pardoned.

“They seem real cognizant of the fact that if there’s some street violence, things could go sideways for them,” she said.

‘Reluctant cheerleader’

While some on the far right may be excited about the incoming administration, others are less so. White nationalist and internet influencer Nick Fuentes regularly posts to his Telegram channel warnings that the incoming administration is not sufficiently aligned with the goals of the far right.

The Trump administration is “the GOP establishment,” Fuentes wrote recently. “The radical Right should be actively DISTINGUISHING itself from the center right rather than destroying its credibility by becoming a reluctant cheerleader.”

Beirich said it is hard to gauge the impact of extremist influencers like Fuentes.

“Does that translate into the real world?” she said. “It’s shocking how subdued the movement is right now compared to just a few years ago.”

The most prominent far-right organization nationally is the neo-fascist Patriot Front, which made headlines for the past several years by conducting flash mob-style marches through major cities, with masked members piling out of rented moving trucks in matching polo shirts and khaki pants.

But the group has suffered significant setbacks recently, including a judgment this week in a Massachusetts court in which the judge ordered the group to pay $2.7 million in damages to a Black musician members assaulted in a 2022 march in Boston.

Baumgartner said it’s the lone actors, inspired by online hate, or small cells of violent radicals known as “accelerationists” that “make my hair stand on end.”

“Time and time again, they have proven themselves the ones to look out for,” he said.

That proved true early on New Year’s Day when a man who said he was inspired by the foreign terrorist group ISIS drove a pickup truck into a crowd of revelers in New Orleans, killing 14. Later in the day, one person was killed when a Tesla Cybertruck exploded outside the Trump International Hotel In Las Vegas.

While experts do not anticipate large demonstrations from the radical right, it is possible some far-left groups could be attracted to the event.

A protest march is planned for Washington on Saturday morning. The groups leading the effort largely are mainline liberal groups like Planned Parenthood, the Sierra Club and the Atlanta-based SisterSong, which advocates for reproductive rights. These aren’t the groups that extremism experts believe pose the risk of violent or disruptive behavior, but large coalition events like the planned march sometimes attract anarchists and other far-left actors who are less predictable.

Moon said extremist groups look to co-opt high-profile events to get media coverage and recruit new members. But the experts who spoke to the AJC said they aren’t seeing any of that kind of talk on the internet.

Even if a weakened far right stays out of Washington this weekend, researchers and extremism experts are less certain about the future.

If Trump follows through with his promise to pardon Jan. 6 defendants, Moon said that could give new life to currently crippled radical groups who have seen their leadership imprisoned.

“If there are mass pardons — which we’re not completely sure if it’s going to happen — but if there are, that could completely transform the far-right landscape,” she said.

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