WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald Trump on Monday endorsed Speaker Mike Johnson to continue leading the House, just days before the Louisiana Republican could face a close election to remain in the role.

The 119th Congress is set to convene Friday, and one of the first orders of business for House lawmakers is to elect a speaker. But even with Trump’s backing – which came via a post on his Truth Social platform – Johnson’s future atop the House GOP is anything but certain. He’s up against razor-thin margins, and, in the wake of a government funding fight this month that sparked frustrations from Republican hard-liners, Johnson could see enough defections to throw his speakership into question.

Trump said in his endorsement that Johnson has his “Complete and Total” backing.

“Speaker Mike Johnson is a good, hard working, religious man. He will do the right thing, and we will continue to WIN,” the former president said, ending his post with “MAGA!!!”

Johnson said he was “honored and humbled” by Trump’s support.

“Together, we will quickly deliver on your America First agenda and usher in the new golden age of America,” Johnson said on social media. “The American people demand and deserve that we waste no time.”

Tech billionaire Elon Musk, who has emerged in recent months as a figure with some sway over the GOP agenda, also threw his support behind Johnson on Monday on social media.

While earlier reports had indicated that Trump was unsure about backing Johnson, Semafor reported Monday that the Jan. 6 certification of the presidential election results was a factor in the president-elect’s decision to make his endorsement. As Roll Call previously reported, a protracted speaker fight could complicate the formalizing of Trump’s victory on schedule.

Narrow margins

To win the speakership, Johnson must receive a majority of votes cast on the floor for a named candidate. Republicans won 220 seats in the November election to Democrats’ 215. But that tally will shift slightly, with former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., who won a fifth term last month, stating that he won’t be returning to Congress.

Gaetz resigned from Congress in November after Trump announced him as his choice for attorney general. He later dropped out of consideration amid allegations of sexual misconduct and drug use – details of which were spelled out in a bombshell report released by the House Ethics Committee last week.

Gaetz has said recently that he was considering taking his seat in the House next month and was attempting to expose any lawmakers who have paid off victims of sexual misconduct with congressional funds. On Monday, Gaetz called Trump’s endorsement of Johnson “‘art of the deal’ level practicality.”

“The resistance to (Johnson) is now futile,” Gaetz wrote on social media, suggesting that the Jan. 6 certification of Trump’s election victory could be in doubt if a speaker isn’t elected Friday.

If Gaetz sticks with his pledge not to take his seat and assuming full attendance on Jan. 3, Johnson could only afford one Republican defection on a party-line vote when those defectors support another candidate. If Republicans choose to signal their opposition by voting present or not voting, that would increase the number of defections Johnson could sustain. Democratic absences could also lower the threshold for a majority, and it’s unclear whether the party will be at full capacity. Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, for example, fell earlier this month on a trip to Luxembourg and had to get a hip replacement.

Johnson has the support of influential hard-liners like Ohio’s Jim Jordan – a previous speaker candidate seen by some as an alternate to Johnson. But Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie reaffirmed in a Friday social media post that he would vote for “someone other than Mike Johnson” for the speakership.

After Trump’s announcement, Massie doubled down, saying that the president-elect’s backing of Johnson would go “about as well as his endorsement of Speaker Paul Ryan” – a reference to the Wisconsin Republican who led the House chamber at the start of Trump’s first term and then retired two years later.

Another Republican signaling skepticism of Johnson is Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz, who said in a statement Monday that she would “still need to get assurances that (Johnson) won’t sell us out to the swamp.” Spartz also called on the next speaker to publicly commit to creating “at least temporary structures” in the chamber for authorizations, reconciliation offset policies and spending audits, as well as a concrete plan on how to work for Trump’s agenda.

Other House Republicans have indicated some hesitation when it comes to reelecting Johnson. Maryland Rep. Andy Harris, the chair of the hard-line conservative House Freedom Caucus, said after this month’s funding fight came to a close that he was “undecided on what House leadership should look like in the 119th Congress.”

The potential for GOP opposition could lead to another lengthy battle for the speaker’s gavel: Both Johnson and his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, won the gavel after protracted election processes.

And with 38 conservatives this month voting against Trump’s favored version of a stopgap spending measure, which included a two-year debt ceiling increase tacked on, it’s clear some members of the Republican Conference are willing to buck the president-elect’s priorities.

McCarthy won the speakership in early 2023 after a series of 15 votes, with delays largely led by hard-liners seeking to leverage their votes to secure rule changes. Nine months later, McCarthy was booted out as speaker amid a funding battle, in part thanks to a rule change he agreed to that allowed a single member to force a vote to recall the speaker at any time. McCarthy’s ouster led to a weekslong process to pick a new speaker that culminated with Johnson’s election.

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