New Democrat Coalition bullish heading into second Trump administration

WASHINGTON — In an election that saw voters in nearly every demographic shift right, the center-left New Democrat Coalition, poised to pick a new chair this Wednesday, sees reason for optimism.

Despite the rightward shift at the ballot box, the New Dems, known for being pragmatic dealmakers, are on track to increase their numbers next Congress with at least 23 new members, a net gain of at least eight compared with their current 100-person roster.

Some in the coalition see proof that their message can win in tough races and possibly light the way forward for the rest of the party.

“New Dems are the role model. New Dems did extraordinarily well in a bad year,” said caucus member Mike Quigley of Illinois. “They’re the guiding light of how you win those difficult seats.”

The group has a reputation for being more pro-business than other parts of the Democratic caucus, although they ascribe to many of the same progressive social policies, such as increasing the child tax credit and expanding affordable housing, as more liberal factions. The caucus also emphasizes legislative productivity and working across the aisle when necessary to pass measures.

New Dems are heading into their own election this week as they pick a replacement for the current chair, Ann McLane Kuster of New Hampshire, who is retiring at the end of her term. The caucus is choosing between Kansas Rep. Sharice Davids, a former mixed martial arts fighter and the only Democrat representing her state in Congress, and Illinois Rep. Brad Schneider, who twice flipped his seat in the wealthy suburbs of Chicago.

“They bring different skill sets. I mean, she’s won in a tough battleground seat. She’s obviously a ferocious fighter, literally, and smart,” said New Dems member Donald S. Beyer Jr. of Virginia. “And he’s been the lead fundraiser for the New Dems for a number of years, and a strong business background, and really good on Ways and Means. Both, either, would be wonderful. I don’t see that as a bloody fight.”

Election postmortem

Both Davids and Schneider in interviews said New Dems provided a template that Democrats need to win tough races, although it was too early to know exactly what went wrong for the party in 2024.

“The message of the New Dems — the idea that we can build upon Democratic values to grow our economy, to hear the needs and the aspirations of our constituents and earn their trust and support — that New Dem message actually did very well,” Schneider said. He’s currently vice chair of communications for the New Dems.

New Dems told voters that they understood it was hard to make ends meet with the high cost of housing, groceries and child care and that they had a plan to help, Schneider said. “That’s the message that the New Dem candidates all ran on and won on,” he said.

Davids said communicating with voters about the party’s accomplishments, such as the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law, was key. She’s currently vice chair for member services.

“One thing I will say that — at least from my vantage point, again, I’m one Democrat in a red state — is the importance of communicating the wins that we have, communicating the work that we’re doing,” Davids said. “I think it’s part of why we were able to hold on to a number of our members that have been in tough, tough races.”

Republican trifecta

The new chair and the rest of the caucus next year will have to weigh when it’s possible to work with the Republican majority and when to push back against policy ideas they see as too extreme. Both Davids and Schneider said New Dems were uniquely positioned to be effective in the next Congress, even with their party in the minority in both chambers.

“As the only federally elected Democrat in my state, it does give me this kind of unique perspective and maybe even a unique set of skills. I know how to work with Republicans,” Davids said. “If we’re talking about extreme policies, then there needs to be a pushback against that. But we also have to be very open to negotiating where we can find pragmatic solutions.”

While Republicans maintained control of the House, they’ll likely find themselves again governing with a slim majority. This Congress, tight margins have forced Republican leadership to rely on Democratic votes to get major legislation passed, including suspending the debt ceiling and funding the government. That leaves an opening for the New Dems.

Democrats are unlikely to have any influence over the trillions of dollars in tax cuts that Republicans are preparing to push through a reconciliation package, sidestepping the need for 60 votes in the Senate. But leadership may have to turn to Democrats for help passing other upcoming bills, including reauthorizing the surface transportation programs and the farm bill, if it’s punted to next year, Davids noted.

“Being a Democrat from a red state, I think I have learned to and have a skill set around engaging and connecting with and having those hard conversations with my Republican colleagues,” she said. “There are also a lot of people in the New Dem Coalition who have connections, influence, relationships with Republicans.”

Schneider, who added health care, national security and infrastructure to policy areas he hopes can inspire bipartisan cooperation, said he’s reminding Republican colleagues that bipartisan laws tend to have more staying power than party-line measures when the political pendulum swings back the other way. While Democrats had a trifecta, they passed both the infrastructure and 2022 semiconductor spending law with Republican votes, he noted.

“The best thing the New Dems can do is stay true to our principles, which is working across the caucus and across the aisle, but working to get things done for the American people and focusing on what’s important, making sure we are growing our economy, making sure that we’re doing it in a responsible way,” he said.

But when Democrats find they can’t work across the aisle during the next administration, they’ll need to provide an alternative vision for voters.

“We have to be very clear on what we stand for, what we want to accomplish. We can’t just be naysayers. We have to present ideas on our own. This is something that New Dems have done and are known for,” Schneider said. “At 108 members we can, I think, make a lot of noise, but with 108 members, we can also present a lot of really good ideas. And I suspect we’ll do both.”