5 takeaways from the 2024 election in Nevada

LAS VEGAS — After months of incessant campaign ads and an onslaught of political events, the 2024 election is over.

It saw a sweeping victory for Republican President-elect Donald Trump, as well as a continued tradition of a close U.S. Senate race in Nevada.

While mail ballots continued to be counted into the weekend and official results not finalized until later this month, winners of many races have already been determined.

Longtime incumbents of Nevada’s congressional seats all won reelection. Trump won Nevada, marking the first time a Republican presidential candidate captured the state in 20 years and continuing the state’s record of voting for the winning presidential candidate on all but two occasions since 1912.

Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen also won in her race against Republican challenger Sam Brown.

Here’s the five biggest takeaways from the 2024 election, so far.

1. Voter turnout is average

Nevada’s voter turnout is so far comparable to previous years and to other states across the country. As of Friday afternoon, turnout was 69.8%. The 2020 election saw a 77% turnout, but it’s difficult to compare the turnout based on total registered voters due to the state’s automatic registration system.

Comparing the actual number of people who voted, the last two general elections are similar. In 2020, 1,407,761 people voted in Nevada, In the 2024 election, 1,415,029 people voted, though that number could increase as the final ballots get counted.

The high turnout of the 2020 election was also likely an anomaly because of COVID-19 and the way the election was run, according to David Damore, political scientist a UNLV.

“We end up with roughly the same number of votes that were cast in 2020 despite population increase,” Damore said.

And compared with other states, Nevada’s turnout is about the same. Based on the voting-eligible population, Nevada’s turnout was about 65.2% in 2024, according to the Washington Post. Iowa saw a 70% turnout, and Virginia saw a 67.6% turnout.

2. Nonpartisan voters participated at a higher rate

Nonpartisans and third-party voters made up a larger percentage of the total voter turnout this year than in the midterm election in 2022, which came as a surprise, Damore said.

Non-major party voters made up 32.6% of those who turned out in 2024, while Democrats made up 31.50% and Republicans 35.9%, according to the latest turnout data from the secretary of state’s office.

The number of nonpartisans and third-party voters who participated is closer to the number of registered voters who don’t identify with either party, which is about 40.5%.

That’s a big difference from the 2022 midterms, when non-major party voters represented less than 26% of voter turnout.

“Nonpartisans are growing in numbers — and they are starting to vote,” said Ash Mirchandani, chair and founder of the Coalition of Independent Nevadans.

In future cycles, Mirchandani expects nonpartisan voters will continue to participate, and their influence will continue to grow.

3. Trump and Rosen win Nevada

Though Trump won the Silver State, down-ballot Democrats also did well.

Trump received over 46,000 votes more than Harris in Nevada, with 724,498 Nevadans voting for him and 678,399 voting for her, according to the latest results.

On the other side of the aisle, Rosen won about 20,500 more votes than Brown in a 675,318 to 654,747 vote, as of Friday evening.

The 2024 results might be similar to 2022, where Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo was elected, while Democrats like Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto also won.

A Trump and Rosen win could come down to a couple of different factors: split-ticket voting and the trend of ballot roll-off, where voters vote in the presidential election but not the other races, according to Nevada political science experts.

While voters chose Trump in the presidential race, fewer voted in the Senate election, Lee said. That was seen in other states, too, including Michigan and Wisconsin, where Democrats held on to Senate seats as voters picked Trump, he said.

Rosen also had an incumbency advantage, Lee said. Incumbents raise and spend a lot more money and are just much more well known, he said. Rosen is better known, and her messaging focused on her bipartisan record, Lee said.

The results might also explain who voters blamed for the problems that drove them to Trump. Voters associated the challenges facing the country with the Biden-Harris administration, but not with Nevada’s congressional incumbents, Mirchandani said.

“I think the presidential race took the oxygen out of the room,” he said.

4. Nevadans voted based on the economy

The outcome of the election was based on the economy, according to Damore, adding the election served as a “referendum of the incumbent party’s handling of the economy.”

Everybody was concerned about their pocketbooks, Mirchandani said, “and when that happens, people tend to want to change.”

Voting behavior has changed, with the Latino vote and other demographics breaking toward Trump, and the short answer behind that is the economy, Lee said.

Latino voters, and voters as a whole, thought about their own economic interests, he said. They felt that because prices have gone up the past four years, change needed to be made, he said. The economy could also have played a role in the turnout.

“It’s just hard to turn out the vote when people are not that enthusiastic about how things are going,” Lee said.

During the campaign cycle, because Harris wanted to split from Biden, she never made the case that job growth is up and inflation is down, Damore said.

“I never saw that ad,” he said.

“They sort of misread the terrain about how much the economy matters,” he said, while the Trump campaign was successful with the old Reagan campaign slogan of “how were you doing four years ago?”

5. Parties, organizations up their ground game

The Nevada Republican Party was successful in increasing turnout, especially compared with 2022. Republicans increased their ground game in Nevada, Damore said. They encouraged voters to vote by any method available, a shift from previous cycles where they cast doubt on the security of mail ballots and voting early.

Lombardo also helped grow the party’s campaign efforts, Damore said. While the state party focused on the top of the ticket, the governor kept an eye on legislative races that could render his veto power moot if Democrats won supermajorities in both chambers. They didn’t.

Damore there is going to be a lot of “soul searching” on the Democratic side, but the Republicans also missed the opportunity to knock out Democratic Rep. Susie Lee. Her opponent, Drew Johnson, did not have as much presence, and Damore never saw a TV ad for him.

There’s also an open question about the strength of the Reid Machine — or the Democratic political powerhouse created by the late Sen. Harry Reid, Damore said.

“Obviously, now we’re a ways away from the glory days of the Reid Machine,” he said. “No one sort of can step up and be that type of leader.”

Reid was a singular figure in terms of his ability to command resources from around the country and bring them to Nevada, Damore said.

Part of that organized campaign effort is the powerful canvassing operation of the Culinary Workers Union Local 226 and Bartenders Union Local 165. Ted Pappageorge, secretary-treasurer of the Culinary, said the union ran the largest operation so far.

As part of its union canvassing program, members knocked on over 900,000 doors and had over 200,000 conversations with voters, Pappageorge said.

“While we were disappointed with the presidential results, we had amazing victories,” Pappageorge said.

The union helped reelect Rosen and the other Democratic congressional incumbents, and it protected the Assembly and the Senate, and supported Shelley Berkley for mayor, he said.

Pappageorge said Democrats were very clear about the economy, promising to take on price gouging operations, and he thinks overall the working class and the issues that matter to them were heard.

“We think Kamala Harris is a tremendous candidate and has fought for workers and proven herself,” he said. “But at the end of the day, we’ve had massive and major victories here in the state of Nevada, and we’re very proud of our work.”

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