Welcome to the 2028 presidential election cycle, where Pa. Gov. Josh Shapiro is a front-runner

PHILADELPHIA — As Democrats Wednesday-morning quarterback Vice President Kamala Harris’ election night loss, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro will take on a new role: presidential front-runner.

Welcome to the 2028 presidential election cycle.

Shapiro, Pennsylvania’s unusually popular first-term Democratic governor, was passed over for running mate by Harris, who instead opted for Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz — a decision that pundits have criticized for failing to broaden her base, and some point to as a reason for her losing the crucial battleground state and the election.

Since getting passed over, however, Shapiro doubled down on his support for Harris while capitalizing on his newly minted national profile. He has cemented himself as a moderate willing to work across the aisle, and Democrats nationally in down-ballot races have tapped him to visit their states to stump for them. He’s fundraised $9 million so far this year, even in an off-election year, and — literally and figuratively — stepped onto the national stage this year during prime time at the Democratic National Convention.

Shapiro, 51, of Abington, has long been rumored to have ambitions for higher office, and has potential to be the nation’s first Jewish president. But despite his growing star, so far he’s been largely untested on the national stage, and was ultimately unable to deliver Pennsylvania for Harris as Republicans benefited down ballot with Trump at the top of the ticket, winning all three “Blue Wall” swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

“There’s a lot of people that are going to put him as a front-runner,” said Samuel Chen, a GOP consultant in Pennsylvania. “Obviously, it’s his decision if he wants to run. There’s been a bit of a taste of what it might look like having gone through the veepstakes.”

As Pennsylvania Democrats on Wednesday sorted through what went wrong in the 2024 cycle, some weighed the vice presidential pick what-ifs. Philadelphia party chair Bob Brady said there was “no question in my mind we should have put Josh Shapiro on the ticket. It would have been beneficial to us.” (Brady also blamed Harris’ campaign for poor Democratic performance in Philadelphia, which the campaign quickly rebuffed.)

Stephen Medvic, a government professor at Franklin & Marshall College, said while Democrats take a retrospective look at the major failures for the party this election cycle, they will also be looking ahead to candidates like Shapiro.

Shapiro, Pennsylvania’s most popular politician, will need to run for reelection as governor in the 2026 midterms, well before any candidate actually announces their intention to seek the Democratic presidential nomination. He won by 15 percentage points in 2022 against a weak candidate, whom he didn’t debate.

How well Shapiro does in his reelection campaign will likely determine whether a presidential run is feasible for him, Medvic said.

“A big part of his future will be how well he does in his reelection,” Medvic added.

Shapiro’s office declined to comment. However, when asked previously about his ambitions for higher office, Shapiro has said he is focused on his job as governor.

In a separate statement about Tuesday’s election results, Shapiro did what he always does: he congratulated the winners and pledged to “find ways to bring people back together” to deliver for Pennsylvanians.

He also issued a warning, similar to the one he issued as attorney general often at odds with the Trump administration: “Let me also make clear: I will never back down from standing up for the freedoms I was elected to protect,” promising to defend democracy and Pennsylvanians’ fundamental rights.

The 2028 Democratic bench

Others on the Democrats’ presidential bench include Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D., Minn.), and California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Harris could also, in theory, run again in 2028.

On the Republican side, since Trump is term-limited, Vice President-elect JD Vance will be seen as a front-runner to follow in his footsteps to the presidency at the completion of Trump’s term.

Last month, Shapiro and Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers joined Whitmer’s “Blue Wall Bus Tour” in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, making dozens of stops to rally Democratic support across the three Blue Wall swing states. All three of the Blue Wall states went to Trump again in Tuesday’s election.

While at a bus tour stop in Saginaw, Mich., Moore magically appeared to stump with Harris without prior announcement, making it seem like an impromptu tryout for the next presidential election cycle.

There was no talk of future elections, and they all said they were all-in to elect Harris. But they all benefited, no matter the outcome of Tuesday’s election: If Harris won, they would have had bragging rights. But because she lost, Democrats will now look to their rising stars to prepare for the next presidential election cycle.

Chen, the GOP strategist, said the Democrats’ bench is “not that deep, in terms of general election appeal,” giving Shapiro another leg up as a moderate among the crowd of potential candidates.

“Gov. Shapiro has the name recognition and is the most popular politician in a Trump state,” Chen added. “For that reason he’s going to be seen as a front-runner. But that doesn’t always work in a candidate’s favor, Chen said, giving them more time for bad press or gaffes to prematurely end any campaign.

What’s next — and what to look for

The next presidential election cycle won’t get underway in earnest until 2026 or 2027.

But there will be signs if Shapiro or other potential candidates are considering a run, Medvic said.

Candidates looking to get in the presidential race will begin making more frequent trips to key states that vote first in primary elections to build their relationships and name recognition, Medvic and Chen said. (Last week, Shapiro was in New Hampshire, the first state to vote in each primary election, to stump for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Joyce Craig. She lost to Republican Kelly Ayotte.)

Shapiro would also likely take a major policy position or write a book to further define himself and fundraise, and continue to make appearances on national TV, Medvic added.

As the dust settled on Tuesday night’s results ushering in a nationwide red wave, Brady, the city party chair, still had his eyes on a silver lining in the Democratic Party: Shapiro’s future.

“It’d be nice to get a better candidate, which I think we have one on the horizon,” he said of Shapiro.

Staff writer Julia Terruso contributed to this article.