When will we know election results? Why it might not be over on Nov. 5
Published in Political News
BALTIMORE — In 2022, Maryland knew who won its U.S. Senate race by midnight on Election Day.
And in the last presidential election, Maryland knew who won its 2020 contest by midnight on Election Day.
But the nation waited four days to find out that Joe Biden had prevailed in battleground Pennsylvania and captured the White House.
Though the candidates are different this year, state elections officials, pollsters and analysts are predicting similar scenarios this week.
As polarization has deepened and seven battleground states tend to choose presidents, America’s Election Day has turned into election week.
“I think this is where voters just need to know election night is not necessarily going to be results night,” said Joanne Antoine, executive director of Common Cause Maryland.
She thinks that advice not only applies in battleground states but also battleground districts like the 6th Congressional District in Maryland, where Montgomery County Democrat April McClain Delaney is in a tight race with Washington County Republican Neil Parrott. The state’s U.S. Senate race between Democrat Angela Alsobrooks and Republican Larry Hogan is also closer than usual in reliably blue Maryland.
“It will probably come down to mail-in ballots in close races,” Antoine said. “A lot of our races we’ll know on election night, but [the 6th Congressional District] could be counting down to the very last ballot.”
And though it could mean more counting, here’s something she loves to see across the state: “Turnout is high. It’s exciting to see the number of voters coming out and the number of voters taking advantage of same-day registration. These are the highest rates we’ve seen for same-day registration.”
As of Monday, more than 1.6 million Marylanders had cast their ballots, according to Jared DeMarinis, state elections administrator.
When will the swing states have results?
Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are running neck-and-neck in the top battleground states, according to polling.
Close races there could be slower to count, especially in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which have state laws that prevent them from processing mail-in ballots until Election Day.
In 2020, it took Pennsylvania four days to count mail-in ballots, particularly in Allegheny and Philadelphia counties. It was the first year of mail-in voting for the state, and it began when the COVID-19 pandemic made it a popular option.
Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt on Thursday explained in a video why Pennsylvania’s results may not be ready on election night.
“Counting millions of ballots takes time. For every single vote cast in this election, there will be a voter-verified paper ballot that election officials need to securely handle and count,” Schmidt said. “Predicting exactly when Pennsylvania will have unofficial results that show a clear winner is just not possible.”
But, despite some misinformation in the state, it’s normal and to be expected — especially if the race is as close as polls predict and there’s a high turnout.
“Ultimately, it comes down to how close any race is. The closer the race, the longer it takes to know who won and who lost,” Schmidt said.
Paulina Gutierrez, executive director of the Milwaukee Election Commission, told CNN that voters shouldn’t expect election results until after midnight Wednesday.
“There’s always a struggle with the count,” she said. “In 2020, we counted 168,000 ballots. We have 105,000, so we’re nowhere near that size this year, and of course, there was the pandemic, so we had a lot of other stuff to put in place.”
Some Arizona election officials have forecast that it could take 10 to 13 days of counting in some areas of the battleground state.
Nevada’s Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar said voters there deserve results on election night, and he’s striving to make that happen.
Will Trump accept election results?
But even if the nation knows the results on election night, there could be a challenge — or several legal challenges — to consider: Trump has not said if he will accept the election results.
Harris has said she would accept election results.
Trump is already warning of a stolen election.
“The only thing that can stop us is the cheating. It’s the only thing that can stop us,” he said last week in Arizona.
His campaign is already laying the groundwork for legal fights over non-citizen voting, overseas ballots, “fake ballots and forms,” “rampant cheat” and “unscrupulous behavior.”
The Harris team has already worked through hypothetical legal scenarios and set up “voter protection” teams, according to CNN.
And the country’s elections systems, after going through this with Trump in 2020, knows what to expect.
“In 2020, the election deniers were improvisational,” said Michael Waldman, president of the Brennan Center for Justice. “Now that same election denialist impulse is far more organized, far more strategic and far better funded. At the same time, the election system is far better able, we believe, to handle something like this.”
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