Barrett-Hertel race for key US House seat in Michigan moves to 'lean' Republican

DETROIT — The nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved a key Michigan congressional race in the Lansing area from "toss up" to "lean Republican" on Friday, with five days remaining until Election Day.

Republican former state Sen. Tom Barrett of Charlotte is vying for the 7th Congressional District seat in a heated race against his former colleague, Democratic former state Sen. Curtis Hertel of East Lansing. The seat is up for grabs after U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Holly, chose to enter the U.S. Senate race.

Cook, a closely watched political forecaster, in its analysis cited private polling from both parties that suggest Barrett has opened up a lead, even as Hertel and his allies have outspent Barrett and his campaign in the race.

" ... both parties’ polls show Hertel has struggled to replicate Slotkin’s appeal, and we’re moving this race from Toss Up to Lean Republican," Cook wrote to explain its Friday ratings change.

Slotkin won the seat by 5 percentage points over Barrett in 2022, but the presidential race at the top of the ticket and the absence of an abortion rights proposal on the ballot have led to a tighter contest in 2024.

“For Curtis Hertel it’s been difficult for him to try to distance himself from his partisan background,” Erin Covey, U.S. House editor for Cook Political Report, said this week prior to the ratings shift. “While he and Barrett both have partisan records in the state Legislature … I think Barrett’s military service has given him the ability to present an image that might have broader appeal to voters.”

Hertel is a strong fundraiser and well-connected politically but because of his background, including working as a lobbyist for Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, it’s been difficult to present himself as someone who isn’t a partisan at the end of the day, Covey said.

“In this district that is evenly divided ― I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump carried it ― that could make the difference," Covey said.

Republicans have launched multiple ads on Hertel, accusing him of being a "liberal lobbyist." Cook's analysis said Hertel has "struggled to respond effectively" to the attacks.

Barrett's campaign and his allies at the GOP super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund have blanketed voters’ mailboxes in the 7th District with ads about Hertel landing a six-figure contract job with a Flint-area nonprofit group run by a former Senate colleague that got a grant routed through a state agency that Hertel’s wife runs.

On Wednesday, Hertel defended his work for the nonprofit Greater Flint Health Coalition. “I’m proud of the work that I’ve done with the health coalition, and we got to do really important work for a city that, in many ways, was damaged by the state," he said.

In one of his own ads, Hertel tells the camera that he’s a “regular guy" who drinks beer, smokes meat, mows his own lawn and coaches his kid's basketball team.

The change in rating by Cook comes a day after another political handicapper, the Inside Elections newsletter, shifted the 7th District race from "toss up" to "tilt Republican."

Both candidates received help from national House surrogates this week with Majority Leader Steve Scalise from Louisiana rallying with Barrett on Tuesday and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York speaking at a Hertel event Wednesday.

When asked about the "liberal lobbyist" attack ads Wednesday, Hertel said voters he's speaking with are more worried about reproductive rights, fairer tax systems and lower costs.

"It's unfortunate what politics has become today," Hertel said. "If you don't have any issues to actually run on, you can say anything else. But I think when you look at what my record is ― actually working across the aisle and solving problems and all those things ― that's what voters want to see."

The district, which includes Ingham, Livingston, Clinton and Shiawassee counties along with parts of Eaton, Oakland and Genesee counties, was redrawn after the 2020 Census.

Based on the 2020 election results, Biden would have won the new 7th District by less than a percentage point. Republican former President Donald Trump would have won it by 1 point in 2016.

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