Can Donald Trump do better in California than he did in the past?

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Donald Trump’s presidential campaign is struggling to win support in California. Again.

The former president is trying to win back the White House he lost four years ago and become only the second president in U.S. history to serve two non-consecutive terms.

California’s almost certain not to help. He won about one-third of the state’s vote in his previous tries in 2016 and 2020. This time, he’s barely made an effort to win the state’s 54 electoral votes, even though it would give him 20% of the 270 he needs to get elected.

He’s visited the state on Labor Day to raise money, and held a September news conference at his Rancho Palos Verdes golf club. This month, he held his first and only California rally in Coachella. But otherwise, the campaign here has been largely quiet.

And since Trump likes to bash California as “paradise lost” and a “mess,” staying away makes political sense.

The state hasn’t voted for a Republican for president since George H.W. Bush in 1988. It hasn’t elected a Republican to anything statewide since 2006. And in this election, Trump faces Vice President Kamala Harris, who’s won four times statewide.

Republicans offer a different take on Trump ‘24 in California. Roughly six million Californians voted for him in 2020, they say, more than in any other state, and polling suggests he’s likely to reach or top that number this time.

California GOP Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson said Trump “will absolutely do better” in the state this year than in the past. People are tired of fearing crime, fighting inflation and watching schools deteriorate, she said, and it’s the Democrats who have been in charge.

But if conditions here are perceived as so awful, why can’t Trump mount a decent challenge to Vice President Kamala Harris in the state? Polls show her with a double digit lead that’s barely moved since she became the Democratic nominee this summer.

“Generally speaking, persuasion is hard. Attitudes about Trump are surely fixed as he has been on the national scene for decades and in politics now for almost a decade,” said Lynn Vavreck, professor of American politics at UCLA.

“People may still be working out their views on Vice President Harris, but even those are likely pretty settled by this point,” she said.

Will Latino voters warm to Trump?

To do better in California, Trump would need to at least broaden his appeal to the state’s ethnic and racial groups.

A late September Berkeley-IGS poll showed Harris with 72% support from Black voters, 66% from Asian American voters and 54% from Latinos. Hispanic voters make up about one-third of the electorate, and Republicans have been pushing hard in Latino communities.

Overall, Harris led Trump 57% to 35%, in line with other statewide polls.

“The only group he is winning is Republican voters, and Republican voters are not a large enough group to swing the state your way given California’s blue tilt,” said Christian Grose, academic director of the USC Schwarzenegger Institute.

Patterson was optimistic that her party was making progress with Latino voters.

“We had neglected many communities around our state. Our community was not thriving because of Democratic policies,” she said.

Biden won 75% of the Latino vote in 2020, according to network exit polls. Trump got 23%. Trump was at 35% in last month’s Berkeley survey.

Is the state a mess?

Trump’s biggest hope among all voters is to convince them that they’re living in a wreck of a state run by crazed liberals, chaos only he can resolve.

“We cannot allow Comrade Kamala Harris and the Communist left to do to America what they did to California,” he told his September news conference at his golf club. He blasted the state for what he said are its high taxes, high gasoline prices, homelessness and a lousy business climate.

Republicans say the promise of better times sells particularly well in pockets of the state, notably more moderate and conservative areas north and east of Sacramento.

“Worry about inflation and the cost of living is by far the number one reason voters in north state districts are casting ballots for Trump,” said Dave Gilliard, a Rocklin-based Republican consultant.

California’s economy is regarded as fairly healthy, but in some ways it still lags the nation. Unemployment last month was 5.3%, tied for the nation’s second highest behind Nevada. The national rate was 4.1%.

Gasoline prices have long been the highest in the country, and remain so. The price of a gallon of regular gasoline Tuesday in California averaged $4.59, well above the nation’s $3.18, according to AAA.

California has the nation’s highest individual income tax burden, according to WalletHub, which analyzes financial data.

Trump’s cures include incentives for domestic energy production, which he says will help push gasoline prices nationwide to under $2 a gallon.

He wants tax breaks for a variety of goods and services, such as car loans, tips and overtime and Social Security benefits. He proposes high tariffs on imported goods, particularly from China, that he says will help American companies become more productive.

He has said during the fall campaign that “Democrats like Harris are driving the state into the ground.”

Independent economists say that no president has the power to cut gasoline prices substantially; costs depend on international markets and a host of other factors.

They worry his tax cuts will starve popular programs such as Social Security. And economists from all sides of the ideological spectrum say high tariffs will drive up the cost of affected goods and services, costing consumers thousands of dollars a year.

Who can fix the economy?

Trump’s plan seems to stoke little enthusiasm in California, even though voters say the economy is their top concern.

“Solid majorities of adults and likely voters think the nation is generally going in the wrong direction and expect bad times financially over the next 12 months,” said an Oct. 7-15 statewide survey by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Trump keeps trying to tie Harris to President Joe Biden’s economic policies, yet 52% of Californians told the PPIC survey they approve of the job Biden is doing.

Trump’s overarching problem is that fixed image of him, a remembrance of where he’s stood, not only on the economy but other issues of concern that have helped cement images of Trump in voters’ minds.

“There’s a history here. There are issue differences, in particular abortion that come to mind, but guns and environment,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC survey director. Abortion rights, gun control and tough environmental regulations are popular in California.

“There are stark differences between where the public lands and where Trump lands on these issues,” Baldassare said.

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