As US vote nears, Ukraine's allies worry about what comes next

Russia continues a slow, grinding advance across the entire front line in Ukraine as a close U.S. election looms whose result will have major repercussions for Kyiv’s ability to fight back.

Moscow’s army will still be able to achieve tactical gains on the battlefield despite new record losses, said western officials who declined to be named while discussing sensitive information. Russia now suffers around 1,200 casualties in Ukraine every day, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on Monday.

Russian troops continue to push forward in the eastern Donetsk region, whose control remains Moscow’s immediate strategic goal. The stronghold town of Vuhledar recently fell to Moscow, while the logistics hub of Pokrovsk is increasingly in jeopardy. Ukrainian soldiers are also gradually losing ground in Russia’s Kursk region, where they launched a surprise incursion in August.

After more than 1,000 days of brutal fighting, the U.S. election marks a watershed moment for Ukraine. Officials in Kyiv and around Europe are concerned that a victory for Donald Trump could see Ukraine forced into a painful settlement that would allow President Vladimir Putin to consolidate his hold on the country’s territory.

While President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pledged to keep fighting, the harsh reality is that his exhausted military is heavily reliant on U.S. aid. Some of Ukraine’s allies have already started to talk about how the war might end.

If Trump, who has said he would have the conflict “settled” before even taking office, is elected and makes good on his threats to shut off support, Ukraine options will narrow dramatically. But even if Kamala Harris wins, the U.S. will probably struggle to get significant financial support through Congress, said western officials who declined to be named discussing sensitive issues.

Kyiv already got a taste of what a slackening in support might look like. Infighting in the U.S. delayed the approval of a multibillion dollar aid package for six months, in a blow to Ukraine, which lacks ammunition and manpower. Moscow continues its attacks on the country’s energy and critical infrastructure, which Kyiv worries will cause massive blackouts and disruption to heating as the cold season sets in.

Alongside air dominance, Russia maintains significant ammunition advantages over Ukraine. Its manpower outnumbers Kyiv’s at a ratio of three to one, likely recruiting about 30,000 new personnel a month, said one western official. Moscow also bolstered its forces with thousands of North Korean troops, according to Ukrainian and South Korean intelligence assessments.

U.S. officials are concerned, but less pessimistic than other allies about the state of play on the battlefield. Senior U.S. officials earlier in October said they expected Ukraine to be able to hold onto the territory in Russia’s Kursk region for at least several months, noting that Kyiv is seeing a steadier supply of ammunition.

That may be enough for Ukraine to hold the line, but it may not be enough to win.

Zelenskyy recently pitched his so-called victory plan, which he says is aimed at forcing the Kremlin to negotiate and avoid freezing the conflict along the current front line. He said Ukraine is working on securing more military aid and permission to use western-made weapons for strikes inside Russia, but added that much depends on the outcome of the U.S. elections.

‘May not work any more’

Kyiv is looking for enhanced air defenses and support from neighboring countries to down Russian missiles and drones that approach their airspace, as well as the ability to degrade Russia’s offensive capabilities in occupied territories.

Ukraine needs more equipment for its brigades; Germany and France are aiming to provide equipment for at least two, Zelenskyy has said. Kyiv also seeks assistance in developing its own long-range strike capacities, to which the U.S. has already pledged $1.6 billion.

As part of the plan, Ukraine would also seek to continue advancing in the Kursk region with the aim to influence public opinion in Russia, said people familiar with the issue.

“Russia will keep the initiative, not counting the losses, and will use its possible local successes on the battlefield to press Ukraine inside the country and to press our partners,” said Mykola Bielieskov, a researcher at Kyiv’s National Institute for Security Studies.

“The model under which the west provides ammunition and Ukraine provides manpower may not work any more,” said Bielieskov. “While the U.S. has always said there will be no American troops on the ground, we are approaching the moment when such need may arise from our partners because Ukrainian resources are not unlimited.”

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(With assistance from Andrea Palasciano and Natalia Drozdiak.)

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