Early voting is surging across the country. It's unclear who benefits

LOS ANGELES — After Katie Kern and her father, Robert Kern, cast their ballots for former President Trump in this suburb of Las Vegas, they said they wanted to make sure their vote was counted in the critical battleground state of Nevada so that the Republican would retake the White House.

"I'm probably more of a last-minute voter, but I wanted to vote earlier this year to make sure that it had time to get in the system, rather than the last-minute thing that seems to be an issue," said Katie, a 40-year-old voice teacher, after voting at a Boys & Girls Club.

Robert, 66, who works in real estate, added that he planned to shuttle family members to early voting locations because of how tight the presidential contest is between Trump and his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, and how Nevada could tilt the outcome.

"Their votes matter," he said. "Every single vote matters here in this state."

The Kerns are among the nearly 30 million Americans who have already cast ballots in the Nov. 5 election as of Thursday morning, according to a University of Florida tracker of early voting. Of the voters who have returned mail ballots or voted in person, Democrats are outpacing Republicans, with 41.9% of ballots cast by registered Democrats in states that require voters select a party preference, compared with 35.3% by Republicans and 22.8% by people who support minor parties or do not have a party preference.

These early voting numbers are not predictive for several reasons — early- and mail-voting access expanded dramatically in many states because of the 2020 pandemic, including in California, where every registered voter now receives a ballot in the mail. Additionally, historical trends about which voters cast ballots before election day have been upended by Trump's skepticism about the nation's electoral process.

The GOP nominee falsely tarred mail ballots as fraudulent and rigged in 2020, a message that affected GOP turnout that year and that Republican leaders across the nation have tried to blunt with varying levels of success ever since.

"It's a problem," said Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida who closely tracks early voting data and noted that Republicans historically were more likely than Democrats to cast their ballots before election day.

"This used to be a strength for Republicans and now it's not, and it's all because of one person saying these things," McDonald said. "And that's quite remarkable, if you stop and think about it, that he could have such a deep influence on people's behavior, and he does it unlike any other politician can do."

Ben Ginsberg, a veteran GOP attorney and strategist who worked on the presidential campaigns of George W. Bush and Mitt Romney, noted how much Trump's claims have caused skepticism among some Republicans about early voting, which he said "used to be a sweet spot for Republicans, and still should be."

In 2013, then-President Obama chose Ginsberg and Democratic attorney Robert F. Bauer to co-chair the Presidential Commission on Election Administration, a yearlong inquiry into voting problems at a time when both parties generally supported opportunities for voters to cast ballots early.

Ginsberg called Trump's claims about early voting "totally harmful and misguided and baseless" and said they "created a breed of skeptics" without any proof of legitimate flaws.

GOP strategists have struggled to reconcile the former president's effort and their desire for their voters to cast ballots early for years. In 2020, the Republican Party in Florida touted a tweet by Trump that supported voting by absentee ballot while blurring the remainder of his statement that mail ballots "will lead to the most corrupt Election [in] USA history."

On Tuesday, Trump's campaign sent out a fundraising appeal that included a "Swamp the Vote" effort that included an option to pledge to vote early in person. A week prior, the former president told supporters at an Atlanta rally, "If you have a ballot, return it immediately." But three days earlier, he described mail-in ballots as "so corrupt" at a rally in the Coachella Valley.

Republican efforts to thread this needle have had varied success. One bright spot for them appears to be Orange County, which is home to critical congressional races that could determine control of Congress.

More than 119,000 Republicans have cast ballots as of Wednesday, roughly 9,200 shy of Democrats in a longtime Republican stronghold that has grown increasingly competitive in recent years, according to the Orange County Registrar of Voters.

Randall Avila, a spokesperson for the county GOP, said the party has made a concerted effort since 2020 to provide opportunities for its voters to meet with the county registrar of voters as well as the party's election integrity team. The goal was explaining that, while voters may have concerns about early voting in other states, they should have confidence in the voting process in Orange County, he said.

"We're not in Arizona. We're not in Pennsylvania. We're not here to discuss or debate that," Avila said. "We're here to discuss how elections occur in Orange County and the safety here."

The Democratic push for early voting, in contrast, is full-throated, with no asterisks. Harris' campaign has deployed Obama to urge Democrats to cast ballots before election day in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan so far.

"We've just got to drum this home," Obama told supporters at a high school in Las Vegas on Saturday, the first day of early voting. "Here in Nevada, voting has already started. You can vote early by mail, or you can vote in person. You can still register to vote at any early vote center in your county."

After advising attendees how to vote early or drop off mail ballots, Obama urged them to help friends and family members vote.

Voters of all political persuasions appeared to heed this advice in Nevada. They shared many of the same concerns about the economy and the cost of living and housing, which several partly attributed to the influx of Californians who have moved here. But there were sharp differences about issues such as abortion, which is on the ballot. Question 6 would enshrine in Nevada's Constitution a right to abortion up until about 24 weeks of pregnancy or if there is a threat to the life of the woman.

Donette Harding, 60, said the proposal to guarantee reproductive freedom and Harris' candidacy motivated her to vote early.

"This is a political climate where you can't take anything for granted," said Harding, an administrative coordinator for students at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, after voting at a recreation center near campus. "I never thought I'd see that on the ballot, where it's even in question. And if that can happen, all these different things that we think are already guaranteed rights by the Constitution that are already in place are in question."

But she also said she supported Harris because she believes that immigrants ought to be able to come to the United States and contribute to the nation, and because of her disgust over the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, as Trump and his allies tried to stop the certification of his 2020 election defeat.

"I think that any decent person knows the difference between what's right and what's wrong. We don't live in a dictatorship," the registered Democrat said.

For Robert Kern, securing the border and shoring up the economy were his top concerns.

"The economy is really at the top of the list. We've basically been stalled out economically for four years," he said, saying that Democrats have failed to take responsibility for the financial pressure facing many Americans. "We'd like some answers, and so we're going with the people who actually provide answers, even if we don't like them."

Many people at early voting centers declined to express their political beliefs because of their views about the sanctity of the ballot box, which was not uncommon in prior elections. Some were willing to speak with a reporter but didn't want to publicly identify themselves because of fears about repercussions.

"Oh, no, I'm not giving you my name. I don't want the Republicans coming after me," a 64-year-old Black woman who works in the medical field said outside a Henderson early voting location.

But she said she was eager to talk about why she cast a ballot for Harris.

"No. 1, the freedom of women to choose — every human being should have a right to make a basic decision about their health and their body. Even if I don't agree, it's none of my business," she said. "Two, the United States is changing, becoming more mean, more negative, more horrible, and I don't like it. I want things to go back the nice way used to be in the '70s, where everybody was nice and welcoming. And No. 3, I think United States should promote democracy and promote freedom. ... Four, the economy is doing well."

Michael, a 63-year-old retired casino security surveillance manager, said he supports Trump because he believes the GOP nominee can stop what he sees as the nation's decline.

"Stop the illegal immigration. The economy is terrible, so improve the economy and stop the awful using of our Department of Justice for political purposes," he said.

He added that he believes that Trump will easily win the election because voters are not expressing their true thoughts for fear of backlash.

"I think a lot of people are afraid to admit to voting for Trump because left-wing people will trash your car, break into your house," he said, before wishing a Times reporter luck on her story.