Moving averages: Election results in 2016, 2020 show change from late campaign polling

BOSTON — If polling is to be believed, then, with just two short weeks to go, the race for the White House remains locked in a dead heat. However, an examination of past polling shows that a lot can change in the final weeks leading up to election day.

According to a review of polling aggregation data covering the weeks before the presidential elections in 2016, 2020, and today, as published by RealClearPolitics, and considering past final elections results from the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, it’s fair to say former President Donald Trump holds a better position now than he did ahead of either past contest.

In 2016, polling showed that with two weeks to go until that year’s November 8 general election, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was leading then-citizen Trump by a wide margin in national averages, 45.3% to 39.9%, with third party candidates grabbing 8.2% of those polled.

The final election results would show Clinton ahead in the popular vote, taking 48.2% to Trump’s 46.1%, but not winning the race.

Trump won after far outperforming polling taken in the swing states in the weeks ahead of election day. Trump’s late October poll numbers in PA, MI, and WI were 40.6%, 35%, and 38.5%, respectively. He ended up earning 48.6%, 47.5%, and 47.2% in those three states, compared to Clinton’s 47.9%, 47.3%, and 46.5%, respectively.

Third party candidates took 3.6%, 5.2%, and 6.3% in PA, MI, and WI, far less than polling suggested they might but more than enough in each state to swing the vote away from Clinton.

In 2020, President Joe Biden’s national polling average lead held steady for months leading up to the election and the final results came in just above that.

Two weeks out from that year’s November 3 election, polling showed Biden was leading then-President Trump 50.8% to 43.2%, with 3% of those surveyed leaning toward third-party options.

The final elections results found Trump earning more support than any sitting president in history — 74,223,975 votes — but that wasn’t enough to beat Biden’s even larger record haul of 81,283,501 votes. Biden won the popular vote 51.4% to 46.9%, with third-party candidates netting 2.7%.

Just like Trump’s victory in 2016, Biden’s win in 2020 was made possible through victories in PA, MI, and WI.

Ahead of the election, Biden led Trump in those states 49.8% to 44.8%, 52.2% to 43%, and 49.8% and 43.5%, respectively.

The end results had Biden winning all three by much closer margins: 50% to 48.8% in PA, 50.6% to 47.8% in MI, and 49.4% to 48.8% in WI. Third parties grabbed 1.2%, 1.6%, and 1.7% in those states.

This year’s election is also likely to be decided by just a handful of swing states, according to University of New Hampshire political scientist and presidential historian Dante Scala.

“You look at those three midwestern states – and how tightly correlated they are with each other. You have to think whoever gets the upper hand in PA, might well do so in WI and MI,” he told the Herald.

As of today, Vice President Kamala Harris is leading Trump in the national averages by just under a point, 49.3% to 48.4%, leaving the race effectively tied.

Harris is ahead, according to polling averages, in PA and WI — 47.3% to 47%, and 47% to 46.4% — but has fallen behind Trump in MI, 46.4% to 46.7%.

If Harris were to win every left-leaning state, and take just the swing states of PA, MI, and WI, she would beat Trump in the electoral college 270 to 268. If the former president wins any of those states and holds onto the right-leaning jurisdictions, Harris would need to win in some combination of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, or North Carolina to come out on top.

The general election will be held on Nov. 5.

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