Poll finds record levels of Cuban American support for Trump days before election

Most Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade County support former president Donald Trump, according to a poll from Florida International University released only days ahead of the U.S. presidential election.

The poll found that Trump is on track to capture 68% of Cuban Americans voters, underscoring the wide support the presidential candidate has maintained and gained in the traditionally conservative and influential South Florida demographic. Wednesday’s results also reaffirmed that Cubans remain loyal to the GOP, with 55% identifying as Republicans.

“The alliance between the Republican Party and the Cuban American vote is very strong,” said Guillermo Grenier, a sociology professor at Florida International University.

That’s the highest level of support for the former president that the FIU poll, the longest-running survey of South Florida’s Cuban American community, has recorded. The 2020 version of the survey showed that approximately 60% of Cuban Americans said they would vote for Trump.

Grenier said that besides Trump’s popularity, reasons for the bump could be due to FIU conducting the survey much closer to the presidential race than last time and that people who did not vote last time are participating this time.

Incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Scott is leading in the U.S. Senate race, with half of Cuban Americans surveyed saying they will vote for him. Scott’s opponent, Democratic former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, has the support of 19% of Cuban Americans.

But nearly a quarter of voters, 22%, told the pollsters they have not made up their minds, including a significant number of independents.

“That’s a big number” of undecided voters, said Grenier.

Although over half of Cubans identify as Republican, GOP affiliation in the demographic has gone down from its peak of 68% in 2007. Over a quarter, 27%, of Cuban Americans now identify as independent, an alignment that has been gaining traction since the Obama years. Over half of Cubans born outside the island and Cubans under age 40 identified as either Democrats or independents.

The poll also found that Cubans are extremely politically active. Ninety-five percent said that they were registered to vote and 89% said they would definitely vote in the November elections.

Although Republicans have gained a significant advantage in registered voters over Democrats in Florida in recent years, Grenier said every vote in the state matters given the close nature of races over the last two decades.

“We never know when it’s going to go down to the wire… Cubans are pretty trustworthy allies of the Republican Party. So it behooves Republicans at this point in time to get them out to vote,” said Grenier.

Though Cuban Americans make up less than one percent of the overall U.S. population, they make up 7.1% of Florida Hispanics and are the largest single ethnic group in majority-Hispanic Miami-Dade. The 2024 poll is the 16th version of the FIU survey, which had 1,001 respondents interviewed over the phone between late September and early October.

Most people polled were U.S. citizens and have close relatives or significant others living in Cuba. The poll also identified that the economy, health care and immigration are key issues for Cuban Americans.

Notably, 46% of Cuban Americans said they were very likely or somewhat likely to back a Republican candidate who advances policies that would support Cuba’s private sector. But that number dropped to 32% if the candidate supporting those policies is a Democrat.

“There is actually a possibility for a Republican to come up with this kind of approach and at least not burn bridges with a lot of the community,” said Grenier.

Support for the U.S. embargo

Over half of Cuban Americans strongly or somewhat agree that U.S. government policies should exert maximum pressure on the Cuban government to promote political changes, while also be aimed at improving the economic conditions of Cubans on the island.

“The challenge to think out of the box for policy makers is to figure out a way you can do both,” said Grenier.

Most Cuban Americans, 70%, believe that the decades-long embargo has not worked, according to the poll. But notably, a significant number of new arrivals. 40%, who have lived through the deteriorating conditions in Cuba in recent years — said the embargo appeared to be working.

“They are the ones who tend to think that whatever is happening in Cuba is kind of related to the embargo’s ability to work as designed,” said Grenier.

Although Cuban Americans largely view the embargo as ineffective, 55% of those surveyed favor that it continue. However, well over half of Cubans born outside of the island or Cubans who identify as Democrat do not support the policy.

Most of the people surveyed, 68% favor Cuba remaining on the State Department’s list of state sponsors of terrorism. However, over half also favor selling of food and medicine to Cuba at a time where there are shortages of basic necessities on the island.

Grenier noted that the community is split on U.S. policy towards Cuba. Researchers found that older Cubans, and those who came before 1995 or identified as Republican, are more likely to support policies to isolate Cuba. Meanwhile, those who are younger, identify as Democrats, were not born on the island, or are more recent arrivals are more likely to support policies that promote engagement between the U.S. and Cuban governments.

There was also overwhelming support, 72%, for the Biden administration’s immigration parole process, which allows Cubans, Nicaraguans, Haitians and Venezuelans to live and work in the United States for a period of two years. Trump has previously said that he would end the program. The majority of Cuban American Republicans, 62%, support the program, according to the poll.

But over two-thirds of Cuban Americans, 63%, did not approve of the Biden administration’s handling of Cuba issues. Cubans who had arrived in the last four years were the outliers, with 70% of them approving Biden’s policies. Grenier said this could be because they have benefited from the parole program or came into the country under the current administration.

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