Why Gavin Newsom is not campaigning with Central Valley Democrats in tossup House races

Gillian Brassil, McClatchy Washington Bureau on Oct 22, 2024

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Gov. Gavin Newsom hit the campaign trail across the country to help Vice President Kamala Harris in her presidential race last week, but he hasn’t been seen campaigning with the Democrats in crucial Central Valley House races since March.

The last time Newsom campaigned side-by-side with former Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield, in California’s 22nd Congressional District, was before the March primary. Newsom has not campaigned with former Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced, in California’s 13th Congressional District this year at all.

California could be key to control of the House of Representatives. Five Republican incumbents face toss-up races for their seats. Two are in the Central Valley.

Why not constantly campaign these final weeks in Central Valley congressional districts within a day’s drive of Sacramento?

Because Newsom wouldn’t help them, experts said.

The Democratic governor has a higher disapproval rating in the Central Valley than in other parts of the state. Many voters in California’s agricultural center lack trust in the state government. Holding hands with the challengers might be better fodder for Republican attack ads than as encouragement for Democrats to turn out.

“I don’t know if he’d be a drag necessarily on the ticket, but I don’t see him as much of a boost either,” said Tom Holyoke, a political science professor at California State University, Fresno. “Most Valley Democrats, I don’t think they love him particularly. They don’t hate him either. But I don’t think they really embrace him.”

“The people who would be most motivated by a Gavin Newsom ad are Democrats who are already going to vote for Adam Gray or Rudy Salas,” Holyoke said in an interview. “The undecided voters, the unmotivated voters there, they’re not going to be stimulated by Newsom.”

Among California regions, trust in Sacramento and Washington, D.C., was lowest in the Central Valley in last month’s Public Policy Institute of California poll — 36% of respondents expressed trust always or most of the time in the state government and 25% did of the federal government.

About half of respondents approved of Newsom’s job performance statewide in the PPIC’s September poll, the highest his overall approval rating has been in 2024.

But 57% of Central Valley respondents disapproved of Newsom.

Campaign spokespeople for Newsom did not respond to requests for comment.

Salas’ campaign confirmed the last time he stumped with Newsom in the 22nd was before the March primary. Gray’s confirmed Newsom did not come to campaign with him the 13th this election cycle.

Newsom’s Central Valley visits

Newsom hasn’t entirely skirted the San Joaquin Valley, which makes up the bottom part of the Central Valley and contains the two toss-up House races. He signed farmworker-related bills in Fresno in September. He visited Kern County to see impacts of the Borel fire in July. And he dedicated Dos Rios Ranch State Park outside of Modesto in June.

These efforts and others are typical of the sort that boost the party in power, strategies that could help motivate Democrats in the Central Valley for helping with area-specific issues.

Newsom has headlined emails asking for donations to tough California congressional races, including in an Oct. 16 email asking Democrats to chip in because “control of the House runs through these four California House races,” referring to California’s 3rd, 13th, 22nd and 41st Congressional Districts. The email claimed that Trump might win and Republicans might take control of the Senate, making House control imperative.

“So think of it as Trump Protection,” the email continued. “Or think of it as giving Kamala Harris the House she needs to pass her agenda.”

Newsom popped down to help Salas emerge from what experts thought could be a competitive March primary, where he faced an in-party challenge from state Sen. Melissa Hurtado, D-Bakersfield. And messages then with Newsom’s name asked voters to donate to Salas for fear of a Democratic lockout.

Newsom too visited Gray’s UC Merced class on Monday, Nov. 7, 2022 — the day before the 2022 midterms.

Newsom’s downballot drag

The San Joaquin Valley has two of the most competitive House races in the nation.

Freshman Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, faces Gray in California’s 13th. Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, and Salas vie in California’s 22nd. Both are rematches from 2022 when the Democrats narrowly lost.

Experts cite several reasons for those defeats. One was Newsom.

Republican gubernatorial candidate state Sen. Brian Dahle, R-Bieber, beat Newsom by more than 8 percentage points in the 13th in 2022. Duarte carried the district by four-tenths of a percentage point that year.

Valadao defeated Salas by 3 percentage points in 2022. Dahle beat Newsom in the 22nd by a little over 4 percentage points.

“I think obviously in 2022, Newsom was a drag at the top of the ticket on Democrats running downballot” in the Central Valley, said Erin Covey, a House analyst and editor of The Cook Political Report. “But I don’t think you can attribute the success Republicans had to Newsom exclusively, just like you can’t blame (Gov. Kathy) Hochul entirely for Democrats’ problems in New York.”

Republican attack ads

Gray and Salas each served in the California State Assembly for a decade. Both Gray and Salas have touted their ability to buck Sacramento Democrats, with Salas frequently citing his 2017 vote against raising the gas tax and Gray on differences in water legislation.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC that works to get Republican House candidates elected, has an ad with a photo of Gray shaking hands with Newsom. Super PACs, which can raise and spend funds in unlimited amounts, cannot coordinate with candidates. Valadao invoked Salas’ service in the legislature with Newsom as governor at their debate this month.

Going after Newsom might be a good strategy for Duarte and Valadao. The pair maintain moderate profiles to prevail in these districts that have more registered Democrats than Republicans and a growing no-party-preference bloc. That could cost them enthusiasm from Republicans who like former President Donald Trump, said Holyoke.

“The diehard Trump folks, they’re not going to be thrilled about these two candidates,” Holyoke said. “Going after Newsom maybe is a way to get some energy up.”

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