Analysis: House almost as close as presidential race

WASHINGTON — While Republicans have a clear advantage in the campaign for control of the Senate, the fight for the House looks as close as the neck-and-neck presidential race with two weeks before Election Day.

Of the eight House rating changes recently made by Inside Elections, six were shifts toward Democrats and the district-by-district battle for the majority is as close to even as it has been all cycle.

There are now 65 House races rated as competitive, including 212 districts where Republicans have the advantage (rated as Solid, Likely, Lean or Tilt Republican), 208 where Democrats have the edge, and 15 Toss-up races. In order to gain four seats they need for a majority, Democrats need to win 10 of 15 Toss-up races while Republicans need to win six of 15 to maintain control.

With the recent lack of ticket-splitting, it’s not surprising that this cycle features close races for both the White House and U.S. House.

Overall, Inside Elections’ House seat projection is anything from a Democratic gain of nine seats to a Republican gain of six seats. That range could narrow right before Election Day if there are fewer Toss-up races.

Incumbents

GOP Rep. John Duarte joined a small group of incumbents to be rated as an underdog as Northern California’s 13th District shifted from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic. New York GOP Rep. Brandon Williams was already in that category, and now his 22nd District is rated Lean Democratic from Tilt Democratic.

Other incumbents saw shifts to more vulnerable categories. California Republican Michelle Steel (45th District) and New York Republican Marc Molinaro (19th District) had their races shift from Tilt Republican to Toss-up. Texas Democrat Vicente Gonzalez had his 34th District shift from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic against former GOP Rep. Mayra Flores.

Two incumbents had their reelection prospects improve. Ohio Democrat Emilia Sykes’ race in the 13th District shifted from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic and Nevada Democrat Steven Horsford had his race shift off the battlefield from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic as Republicans focus their efforts elsewhere.

Open up

Republican prospects improved in one open seat (California’s 47th District) which is now rated as a Toss-up from Tilt Democratic in the race between Republican Scott Baugh and Democrat Dave Min to replace Democratic Rep. Katie Porter. Vice President Kamala Harris looks likely to finish ahead of former President Donald Trump in the Orange County district but Baugh is hanging close.

Senate trend line

In the Senate, Republicans and Democrats continue to have divergent views on the state of the Nebraska Senate race. Republicans believe Sen. Deb Fischer now has the lead after months of a competitive race. But Democrats believe independent candidate Dan Osborn still has the lead. It doesn’t feel like splitting the difference between the two perspectives is quite right, but more like one party is completely misreading the situation.

As a Republican in a Republican state, Fischer should still be given the advantage in spite of herself. But this race isn’t over yet and the rating shifted from Likely Republican to Lean Republican in favor of Democrats.

Despite Nebraska emerging as a Republican headache, the GOP is still more likely to gain control of the Senate. The Inside Elections’ Senate range is a Republican gain of two to four seats. The GOP needs a net gain of two seats for a majority but can control the Senate by gaining one seat and winning the White House because a then-Vice President JD Vance could break tie votes.

House List

Moved toward Republicans:

California’s 47th (Open; Katie Porter, D) from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up

Texas’ 34th (Vicente Gonzalez, D) from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic

Moved toward Democrats:

California’s 13th (John Duarte, R) from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic

California’s 45th (Michelle Steel, R) from Tilt Republican to Toss-up

Nevada’s 4th (Steven Horsford, D) from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

New York’s 19th (Marc Molinaro, R) from Tilt Republican to Toss-up

New York’s 22nd (Brandon Williams, R) from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic

Ohio’s 13th (Emilia Sykes, D) from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic

Senate List