ORLANDO, Fla. — In 2022, Democrat Sarah Henry tried but failed to unseat a GOP lawmaker as a red wave swept Republicans into office even in blue-leaning Orlando suburbs. This year, with a presidential election and hot-button issues such as abortion rights on the ballot, she believes her story will end with an election win.

“I think we’re going to see a lot of voters coming out,” Henry said. “We hear that when we’re knocking. We see it in the yard signs in the neighborhoods … We see that in our own campaign, with new volunteers turning up every week and folks calling and texting and emailing and asking how they can get involved.”

Henry, 28, of Altamonte Springs, a nonprofit manager, is again facing off against Republican state Rep. David Smith, who is seeking his fourth term representing District 38, which includes much of southern Seminole County. She lost to Smith in 2022 by 4.6 percentage points.

Smith, 64, of Winter Springs, a retired U.S. Marine Corps and business consultant, has not returned requests for an interview.

The two have sharply different views on abortion, which is on the ballot as Amendment 4, and the district is one Democrats hope they can flip in their effort to overturn Republicans’ supermajority in the Florida House.

As of July, District 38 had 43,530 registered Democrats, 41,759 Republicans and 38,372 non-party affiliated voters. In its current configuration, the district would have voted for Joe Biden over then-President Donald Trump in 2020.

Henry should have won two years ago, but Democratic turnout statewide in 2022 “was just so bad that it ended up not working out, even though it should have been a seat Democrats won that year,” said Matt Isbell, a Democratic elections analyst.

Smith, though, has outraised Henry with $466,000 to her $171,000, and the Republican Party of Florida also launched an ad attacking Henry.

“I felt we did not have the representation our community needed in Tallahassee,” said Henry, a past president of the Young Democrats of Seminole County. “Instead what we have in Tallahassee is an extremist, out-of-control Legislature that is rubber stamping the governor’s policies.”

Smith’s website cites Florida’s “thriving economy” during his years in office as a reason to re-elect him. “As chairman of the manufacturing and supply chain caucus, David worked to grow high paying jobs in this sector of our economy. Growing good jobs outside of the Tourism and Agriculture sectors makes Florida’s long-term future even brighter.”

Henry said the number one issue was “reproductive care and reproductive freedom.”

She called Florida’s 6-week abortion ban, which Smith voted for, “an extreme ban that restricts freedom, restricts access to health care and puts the government where I don’t believe it belongs.”

She backs Amendment 4, which would place a right to an abortion until viability, or about 24 weeks into a pregnancy, into the state’s constitution.

“Reproductive freedom and abortion access is not a partisan issue,” Henry said. “Republican, Democratic and nonpartisan, affiliated women and men support comprehensive reproductive freedom. And that’s not just abortion, it’s unfettered access to IVF for aspiring parents, it’s being able to access the care we need when we need it.”

Smith’s website states he is “pro-life and will ensure Florida’s laws protect our unborn.”

Smith “supports a woman’s right to protect her own life for medical reasons, as well as exemptions for rape and incest,” the site continued. “David believes abortion should not just be another form of birth control.”

Henry also cited Florida’s homeowners insurance crisis as a major issue.

“Whether or not you can afford a house has almost become a secondary question to whether or not you can afford a surprise, massive increase in your rates overnight,” she said. “There’s no reason that companies should be taking money from the state and disappearing and leaving citizens in the lurch.”

She said that a proposed bipartisan bill for universal wind coverage had some “great ideas” and should have been debated on the House floor in the last session.

“I really don’t think this is a partisan issue,” she said. “Our insurance companies don’t check whether you have a D or an R next to your name before they raise your rates. Republican legislators know that too.”

Smith’s website stated the Legislature “achieved our near-term goal in 2023 to stabilize market conditions and now insurance companies are no longer leaving Florida. And new companies are coming into our state to write homeowner policies.”

He cited his support of the $2 Billion “Reinsurance” fund in 2022 to help deal with rising costs, which requires insurance companies to pass on their savings to customers. He also called for creating an insurance fraud taskforce and increasing funding for the My Safe Florida Home and Condo programs.

Smith’s website also states that he “is on the frontline fighting for parental rights” in schools, including “fighting against Critical Race Theory in textbooks and the discussion of gender identity with kindergarten school children.”

Democrats need just five more seats to end the Republican supermajority in the state House, which would allow the party to slow the GOP’s agenda and have more say on bills.

“What we have now is a legislature that does not debate, that does not compromise, that does not argue,” Henry said. “Getting out of the supermajority and creating a Legislature that is more able to have those frank conversations only helps the strength of our bills, the strength of our legislature, and, frankly, the strength of our people.”

The deadline to request a mail ballot is Oct. 24. Early voting began Monday in Orange and Seminole counties with election day on Nov. 5.

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