Analysis: 8 rating changes in the House, 2 in the Senate

WASHINGTON — Less than a month before Election Day, 10 race rating changes help clarify the fights for control of the House and Senate.

It’s mixed news for members named Don, as both Nebraska’s 2nd District and North Carolina’s 1st shift from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic.

Nebraska Don

In the Cornhusker State, Republicans and Democrats agree that GOP Rep. Don Bacon is trailing Democrat Tony Vargas, but they disagree on the trajectory of the race. GOP strategists believe that, similar to last cycle, base Republican voters will come home to Bacon as a result of Democratic attacks, and that the congressman will win reelection. But that movement might be more difficult this cycle with Vice President Kamala Harris running ahead of former President Donald Trump in the campaign for the district’s single Electoral College vote. Democrats believe the congressman is cooked.

North Carolina Don

In the Tar Heel State, Democratic Rep. Don Davis has a very narrow lead over Republican Laurie Buckhout. But his name recognition is still relatively low for an incumbent considering Davis is running for reelection in a partially new district, drawn by Republicans to defeat him. So Republicans still have an opportunity to define him and to win this seat, as they intended.

Long (Island) odds

In the Empire State, GOP Rep. Nick LaLota is in a stronger position as New York’s 1st District shifts from Lean Republican to Likely Republican. Former CNN anchor John Avlon won the competitive Democratic primary, but still has ground to make up in the general election in a Long Island district where Republicans have been making gains and where Trump might do better than when he finished ahead of now-President Joe Biden in 2020.

Projection shift

The eight House rating changes bring an unintentional symmetry to the House battleground, with each party currently representing 26 vulnerable seats. But since Republicans currently control more House seats, Democrats need to win a disproportionate number of the Toss-up seats to win the majority. Republicans likely need to win four of 13 Toss-ups, while Democrats need to win 10 of 13.

At Inside Elections, we’re adjusting our projected House range to anything from a Democratic gain of seven seats to a Republican gain of six seats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority. The fight for the House seems to mirror the close presidential race, and the majority may not be known for weeks after Election Day, due to the number of competitive races in slow-counting states such as California.

Off the board

A combination of the partisanship of the district, lack of funding, candidate quality and strength of the incumbent pushed a handful of races off the House battlefield entirely. Kansas’ 3rd (Sharice Davids), Nevada’s 1st (Dina Titus), New York’s 3rd (Tom Suozzi), Ohio’s 1st (Greg Landsman), and Oregon’s 6th (Andrea Salinas) all shifted from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic.

Meanwhile, in the Senate

There are also two rating changes in the Senate, as both Arizona and Nevada shift from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic, in favor of Democrats.

Neither race is in the bag for Democrats, but Rep. Ruben Gallego has a clear advantage over Republican Kari Lake in Arizona, as does Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen over Republican Sam Brown in Nevada. Republicans have a distinctly better chance in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (still rated as Tilt Democratic) and Montana (Tilt Republican) and Ohio (Toss-up).

Overall, Republicans are most likely to gain between two and four Senate seats, enough for majority control.

House list

Moved toward Republicans:

New York’s 1st (Nick LaLota, R) from Lean Republican to Likely Republican

Moved toward Democrats:

Kansas’ 3rd (Sharice Davids, D) from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

Nebraska’s 2nd (Don Bacon, R) from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic

North Carolina’s 1st (Don Davis, D) from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic

New York’s 3rd (Tom Suozzi, D) from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

Nevada’s 1st (Dina Titus, D) from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

Ohio’s 1st (Greg Landsman, D) from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

Oregon’s 6th (Andrea Salinas, D) from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic