A 'demure' Colin Allred vs. Ted Cruz '3.0': What to expect from the Texas Senate debate

FORT WORTH, Texas — On Tuesday, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and Democrat U.S. Rep. Colin Allred will debate for the first — and possibly last — time this election cycle.

For months Texans have seen the candidates on social media and in commercials, but for many potential voters, the face-off will be the only time they hear from Cruz and Allred beyond the posts and soundbites.

Debate topics are likely to include immigration, border security, abortion policy, energy, health care, climate change and the economy.

Here’s what to know before Cruz and Allred take the debate stage at 7 p.m at WFAA Channel 8 studios in Dallas.

—State of the Texas Senate race

Cruz has represented Texas in the Senate since 2013 and has generally maintained his lead in recent polls, but the surveys show a tight race. At least one put Allred, a U.S. Representative from Dallas, ahead by one point. Were he to win on Nov. 5, he’d achieve what every other statewide Democrat has failed to do since 1994.

Cruz is projected to win by about 3 to 4 points, according to recent polling averages from 538, but the race’s competitiveness, as rated by The Cook Political Report, recently shifted from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” The change indicates a closer race than first predicted by the independent, nonprofit newsletter that analyzes elections and political trends.

The race has gotten attention from national Democrats in recent weeks, with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee committing to a “multimillion-dollar” investment in television ads in Texas and Florida as they try to keep control of the Senate in Washington.

Combined, Cruz and Allred have already raked in more money than in 2018 when Cruz was up against former El Paso Congressman Beto O’Rourke and his headline-grabbing travels to Texas’ 254 counties. Allred raised more than $30 million and Cruz raised more than $21 million in the latest filing period, per their campaigns.

On the campaign trail this time around, Cruz has cast the race as a fight between “sane and crazy,” where he’s the best pick for Texas while Allred is a “far-left liberal.” His strategy has included linking Allred to the Biden administration and focusing on the economy, immigration and border security, issues poll well among Republicans.

While Cruz is a known — and oft polarizing — commodity, Allred entered the race with less name recognition. He has spent much of his campaign introducing himself to voters as a fourth generation Texan from Dallas who was raised by a single mother and went on to become a professional football player and civil rights attorney. He’s also campaigned on Texas’ restrictive abortion law, tying Cruz to the state’s near ban.

—What to watch for as Cruz, Allred debate

Before diving into what to watch for, one note: The significance of a debate between Cruz and Allred happening at all.

“The fact that they are debating means that both of them see this as an opportunity or are worried about where the election is,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political science professor.

And what should the candidates do with that opportunity?

Cruz wants to use the debate as a “nail in the coffin of the Allred campaign,” said Rottinghaus. It’s a chance for Cruz to diffuse “some of the controversies and problems that have come up in his political past,” such as his trip to Cancun during the deadly February 2021 winter storm.

“I think that is what is front and center for most voters, so he addressing it really diffuses it and lets him pivot to the issues he wants to talk about,” Rottinghaus said.

For Allred, it’s a chance to continue introducing himself to voters. How far Allred goes to introduce himself will signal where his campaign thinks they are in the campaign cycle, Rottinghaus said.

“A lot of his campaign has been about him and his values, his approach to the office, his family, so how far will he take that in this very big stage?” Rottinghaus said.

There’s also the question of the extent to which Allred will go after Cruz on some of his “personal vulnerabilities,” Rottinghaus said.

“Allred has tried to take the temperature down,” Rottinghaus said. “He’s been very demure in his approach to this, and so I suspect we’ll see him continue, but it’s also possible that he’ll really want to take the fight to Ted Cruz.”

Viewers could see Cruz make an appeal for moderates and independents from the debate stage, in a campaign cycle when both candidates have made plays at the middle, including by touting endorsements from members of the opposite political party.

“In a general election, often time you feel the need to shave off some of the rough edges,” said Cal Jillson, a Southern Methodist University political science professor. “So he’s been advertising his bipartisanship, which comes as a surprise to a great many people, but he realizes that the number of people who will support him as a bare-knuckle Republican fighter might not be quite enough to put him over the top.”

Rottinghaus described it as Cruz “3.0” — the earlier models being Cruz before Donald Trump’s election and between then and now.

Cruz has historically been a “bomb thrower,” he said.

“For Cruz 3.0, he wants to paint himself as a bipartisan, deal making warrior who’s going to fight for Texas,” Rottingaus said, adding that his campaign likely thinks the bipartisan messaging “rallies Independents and mutes the Democratic voter enthusiasm.”

Jillson expects to see Cruz to try and beat Allred on policy issues related to the U.S.-Mexico border. Cruz will try to make the argument that Democrats favor open borders and that undocumented immgrants commit crimes, Jillson said.

Allred will try to take a more moderate stance, arguing that the border has been and there are fewer crossings as a result of President Joe Biden’s border policies. Allred will also want to focus on more “kitchen table” type issues, like job and health care access, including a person’s right to make their own health care decisions, particularity for women, Jillson said.

Jobs and the economy are typically a top, if not the top, issue for voters and is likely to come up during the debate.

“For Allred, the argument is that the American economy is good for those who are comfortable and still needs a lot of work for those who are vulnerable,” Jillson said. “And Cruz is going to make the argument that Democratic policies will kill jobs, particularly in Texas and particularly in the energy industry and in the Valley where Republicans hope that Hispanic men will respond to that issue by supporting Trump and Cruz.”