Harris narrowly leads Trump in Pennsylvania's closest presidential contest

PHILADELPHIA — Vice President Kamala Harris has maintained a narrow lead against former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, a state whose importance continues to loom large and where the margin of victory looks like it will be razor thin.

A Philadelphia Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll released Saturday shows Harris with a nearly 4-point advantage over Trump in the state, within the survey’s margin of error, meaning either candidate could be in the lead.

As an unprecedented campaign summer turned to fall, neither candidate has leaped ahead in stubbornly divided Pennsylvania. Both Harris and Trump have near-identical support in the state as they did in September despite spending more money and time here than in any other swing state. Their relative strengths remain the same as in September, with Trump still leading on the economy and Harris on abortion. The divided electorate remains sharply split by gender.

The poll, conducted between Oct. 7 and 10, follows Trump’s return to Butler, after his survival of a July assassination attempt, and comes as Pennsylvania voters are already casting their ballots by mail.

Both nominees have tried to pitch themselves as change candidates despite Harris serving in the current administration and Trump running in his third consecutive election. And the pool of undecided voters left to convince also hasn’t budged, with 3% saying they plan to vote but have not made up their mind.

But the lack of change from September isn’t unexpected given the period between surveys had no presidential debates or major shake-ups.

And close presidential races have become the norm here. Trump won Pennsylvania by less than 1 percentage point in 2016 and Biden took it by a little more than 1 percentage point in 2020.

“At some level none of this is surprising,” Democratic strategist J.J. Balaban said, speaking generally about the closeness of the race. “Pennsylvania is not a particularly transient state … where the electorate every four years has significant change so it’s totally unsurprising that after two very close presidential elections, things are gearing up for a third consecutive very close presidential election.”

Trump leads on the economy but Harris is seen as better for the working class

The economy still remains the most important issue to voters in Pennsylvania and Trump is trusted by 54% of them on the issue, an increase from last month when nearly 51% favored him.

However, when the poll asked voters who they trusted more to help the working class, Harris beat Trump.

The economy is the most important issue to 22% of Pennsylvania’s likely voters, including about one-third of Republicans and 21% of independents.

In stops in Pennsylvania over the last week, Trump said energy would unlock the state’s economy and promised to “frack, frack, frack and drill, drill, drill.”

He’s taken credit for a strong U.S. economy during his administration and vowed to lower taxes and create more jobs for American workers.

Harris, meanwhile, has said she will create an “opportunity economy,” by lowering the cost of living and cutting taxes for middle-class families, as well as supporting small businesses and investing in entrepreneurs. She’s talked about her working-class upbringing in Oakland and working at McDonald’s as a teenager.

It may have some resonance here among the critical bloc of working-class voters in Philadelphia and in rust belt parts of the state. Asked which candidate will be better for helping the working class, 51% of Pennsylvania likely voters said Harris and 47% said Trump.

Harris has done much better with college-educated voters and that remains the case, though the poll showed a slight dip from September with 59% of voters with a bachelor’s degree backing her, down from 64% last month.

The gender gap

The gender divide remains stark in Pennsylvania — as it has nationally throughout this election. Trump has a 13-point advantage among men and Harris has an 18-point advantage among women.

Harris has made some direct appeals to men on the campaign trail, including this week when she went on the "All the Smoke" podcast, hosted by two former NBA stars. Former President Barack Obama spoke to Black men in Pittsburgh on Thursday, urging them to support Harris.

“You’re coming up with all kinds of reasons and excuses, I’ve got a problem with that,” Obama said. “Because part of it makes me think — and I’m speaking to men directly — part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president.” He went on to make the case that Harris is someone who “grew up like you.”

Trump has made few direct appeals to women in the race, remarking in Indiana County last month that he would be their “protector,” and that they’d “no longer be thinking about abortion,” if he were president. He seems to be hoping to draw out more men to make up for the gap or banking on overperforming polls with women, which he did in both 2016 and 2020.

The small sample size of undecided voters in the state is evenly split between men and women.

For men, the most important issue impacting their vote was the economy, while for women it was abortion — a reflection of the two issues where both candidates perform strongest.

Women trusted Harris more on every issue that was asked about, including democracy, the economy, and immigration, whereas men trusted Trump more on every issue, except abortion.

Campaign fever

With a race this tight, the already dialed-up attention on Pennsylvania will hit overdrive in the coming weeks.

About one-third of Pennsylvania voters said they’ve been approached, in person, by someone from either campaign or someone affiliated with either campaign.

Philadelphia voters reported the most engagement. Central and South Central voters reported the least.

Of course, campaigns are largely waged via mailers, TV ads, and the rallies both candidates have been holding in the state.

So expect to see both candidates continuing to flock here to juice turnout — Harris’ campaign has surrogates, including her husband Doug Emhoff, heading to the Philadelphia suburbs this weekend with the vice president scheduled to speak in Erie on Monday. Trump recently blitzed across several white working-class areas from Butler to Scranton, to Reading, and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, will hold a pair of events in the state on Saturday.

“Trump’s gonna do whatever he can do to continue to gin up his base,” GOP strategist Vince Galko said. “Maybe pick a few niche areas to target swing areas of the state because securing a tenth of a percentage point could be the difference in this race.”

And while the attention on the race has been intense for those following it, there are still a bunch of voters who just aren’t thinking about the election yet.

Those voters are the toughest to reach because they often make up their minds at the last minute and based on what’s most important to them at that moment they head to the polls.

“Yes, even here in Pennsylvania,” Balaban said. “They’re going to vote on Election Day, and that’s in three weeks and that’s a long time in the lives they’re leading.”