Bucks County, the last purple part of Philly's suburbs, could swing the race for Trump or Harris -- and they know it

PHILADELPHIA — Emily Moskaitis voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. But eight years later, she’s voting for former President Donald Trump, and she’s spent dozens of hours each week over the last 10 months working to convince her Bucks County neighbors to do the same.

Moskaitis, 37, said she’s encountered a “tremendous amount of support” as she goes door to door, and makes phone calls as a volunteer for Trump’s campaign. Many, she said, speak about rising prices and crime.

Though Moskaitis describes herself as one of the many women who were shocked by Trump’s 2016 victory, the forensic computer expert was ultimately impressed by Trump’s first term in office and supported him in 2020.

“I’ve never been so moved as I am this year, and this election cycle,” said the Newtown resident.

Less than 30 miles northwest in the same county, Kalyn Roberts, a lifelong Republican from Quakertown, is preparing to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris.

“I feel that she is a leader that would uphold a good reputation, and I would be proud to be in a country led by her,” Roberts, 67, said.

As polls continue to show an extremely tight race between Harris and Trump in crucial Pennsylvania, the significance of Bucks County, the last remaining purple area in Philadelphia’s populous suburbs, has intensified.

And both campaigns know it.

Last month, Trump’s campaign held its first rally in the Philly suburbs, sending U.S. Sen. JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, to Newtown.

The next day, U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D.-Mass., and U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D.-Mich., rallied Harris volunteers in Bensalem.

“I’m going to be watching the numbers in Bucks County,” Stabenow, who hails from another key swing state, told Democratic volunteers.

Bucks County is known for vote splitting and politically moderate voters.

Trump lost the county in 2016 and 2020 but by narrower margins than the rest of the Philly region. Over the summer, Republicans gained the advantage in voter registration. But Democrats have had success in recent local elections. With the help of Republican voters, Democrats were reelected to control the county Board of Commissioners last year.

The margins in Bucks County could play a key role in determining who wins Pennsylvania’s electoral votes and the White House in November.

“It’s gonna be close but how close is the question,” said Stephen Medvic, a political scientist at Franklin and Marshall College.

Republicans’ slight edge on voter registration

In 2016, Clinton won Bucks County by less than 1 percentage point, and ultimately lost the state. President Joe Biden dramatically improved upon her margins, winning the county by nearly 6 percentage points in 2020 to eke out a statewide win. Winning the county by margins similar to Biden’s will be critical to Harris’ chances in Pennsylvania.

Joan Chak, a 72-year-old retired school administrator who volunteers for Harris’ campaign knocking on doors in Bucks County, said she was feeling hopeful but worried.

“There’s a lot of urgency because our candidate changed really within the last two months,” Chak said in an interview after Warren and Stabenow’s rally. “And I think people are really surprised with how she hit the ground running.”

Both campaigns are devoting resources to moving that needle. The Harris campaign has three offices in Bucks County.

The Trump campaign also has an office in Bucks County where it’s persistently mobilizing volunteers. It’s the only Philadelphia collar county Trump has spent time in this year. In addition to Vance’s rally, Trump held a fundraiser in Newtown in April.

It’s also the only one with more registered Republicans than Democrats. As of Oct. 7, just under 42% of Bucks County’s voters were registered Republicans, while 41% were Democrats. The other 17% were either third party or unaffiliated.

Republicans in the county say this year feels different than prior cycles.

“The big difference I see is the Trump supporters are willing to put signs on their lawn and they’re not afraid to be seen,” said Pat Poprik, the chair of the Bucks County GOP.

Candi Roth, a 71-year-old from Trevose, is one of Bucks County’s newest registered Republicans. She voted for Biden in 2020 but has since grown frustrated with his policies, including his efforts to encourage Americans to use electric vehicles and the Democratic Party’s support for the availability of gender-affirming care for transgender people.

She plans to vote for Trump this year, and changed her voting registration from Democrat to Republican in August.

“I find that he comes across a little rough, but, again, principle over personality,” she said of Trump. “I believe his heart’s in the right place.”

Even with new voters like Roth, the Republicans’ registration lead may not prove to be significant in November. Registration is a lagging indicator — meaning a voter who has changed their registration to GOP has usually already voted for Republicans in several cycles.

Similarly, party registration is not a guaranteed predictor of how someone will vote. Democratic wins in the county have been driven in part with the votes of Republicans and independents.

Roberts, the Quakertown Republican casting her ballot for Harris, said the only Republican she will vote for in November is U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick.

“I don’t feel that the Republican Party represents my views and my values anymore,” she said.

Roberts said Fitzpatrick represents what she wants the Republican Party to be. Fitzpatrick has held on to office despite Democrats’ gains across the county by playing up his bipartisan credentials and distancing himself from Trump.

His challenger, Democrat Ashley Ehasz, is hoping to end that streak with a campaign that focuses on reproductive rights and tying Fitzpatrick to Trump.

“There is real anger, very real anger, at Brian Fitzpatrick for his lack of courage and just saying I will not endorse Trump,” Ehasz said. Fitzpatrick has avoided questions about the former president, and whether or not he supports him, in recent years.

But polling in the race, including polling funded by Ehasz, has consistently shown Fitzpatrick with a comfortable lead in the race. Fitzpatrick’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Capitalizing on swing voters

Americans for Prosperity-Pennsylvania is targeting Bucks County swing voters in its work to campaign for U.S. Senate candidate Dave McCormick.

The organization backed former U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign in the primary, but is focusing on down-ballot races after Trump secured the nomination.

Emily Greene, state director for the conservative advocacy group funded by billionaire Charles Koch, said the group is targeting voters in Bucks County who are concerned about the economy and would consider voting for a GOP Senate candidate even if they support Harris for the presidency.

The Harris campaign has spent significant time in Bucks County sending top surrogates — like Warren and second gentleman Doug Emhoff, to stump for Democrats.

“We have said many times and I think it’s true that this really is the key to the Keystone,” State Sen. Steve Santarsiero, the chair of the Bucks County Democratic Party, said. “If Vice President Harris does well here, it will help her win the state. And we’re keenly aware of that.”

While they’re working to turn out Democrats in large numbers, they’re also trying to persuade Republicans who may be ready to walk away from Trump. The campaign has actively worked to court Republicans who supported Haley in the primary — which includes 20% of the Bucks County Republican voters.

“You don’t win Bucks County as a Democrat without getting some Republican votes,” said Brendan McPhillips, a senior Harris campaign adviser.

Gov. Josh Shapiro had success in this space in 2022. He ran ads featuring Tom Wheeler, the Republican president of the Hulmeville Borough Council.

Wheeler, who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, doesn’t plan to cast his ballot for the former president again this year. But Harris hasn’t earned his vote yet, either.

He is leaning toward voting third party and said the only thing either candidate could do to win his vote would be to fundamentally change their personality.

“I just want everyone to stop the bickering and the fighting — a third candidate in there would do that,” Wheeler said. “Both of them are nothing but fear mongers trying to scare everybody and the Republicans and Democrats have to clean house.”