Harris takes narrow lead in Nevada poll -- but still in statistical dead heat with Trump

Jessica Hill, Las Vegas Review-Journal on Oct 10, 2024

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LAS VEGAS — Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a narrow lead in the latest polling of Nevada, though the poll’s margin of error still leaves the race as a statistical dead heat.

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill polling of swing states released Thursday shows a tight presidential race, with 48 percent of Nevada voters surveyed supporting Harris and 47 percent supporting Trump, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percent.

The October poll shows Trump ahead in Arizona with 49 percent of support to 47 percent for Harris. Trump is also narrowly leading in Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania by one percentage point, and the candidates are tied in Michigan and Wisconsin.

The latest poll of 900 Nevadans shows Trump lost a point in the battleground state of Nevada, as the last Emerson College Polling done in September showed the candidates tied with 48 percent. The month before, the Emerson poll showed Harris leading by a single percentage point.

“With just under four weeks to go, the race remains too close to call in key swing states, all within the margin of error,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, in a statement.

Regardless of their stated preference in the presidential race, when asked who they expect to be president, 50 percent of those polled said Harris would win and 48 percent said Trump.

Nevada specifics

Sen. Jacky Rosen remains ahead in the Senate race, with the latest Emerson College polling showing 50 percent support for her versus 42 percent for Republican candidate Sam Brown. Five percent remain undecided with less than a month to go until the election.

The last Emerson College poll from September put Rosen ahead at 48 percent and Brown at 41 percent.

Surveying voters on Ballot Question 6, which would codify abortion in the Nevada Constitution, 55 percent of respondents plan to support it, while 33 percent plan to vote no, and 13 percent are undecided.

The economy continues to be the top issue for Nevada voters, with 36 percent of respondents listing it as the top issue, followed by housing affordability, immigration and threats to democracy.

Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo has a 37 percent approval rate with 29 percent of respondents disapproving. That is a slight dip from the September survey that had the governor up about 2 percentage points in favorability.

Nevadans also continue to have an unfavorable view of President Joe Biden, with 54 percent disapproving of the job he’s done as president and 38 percent approving.

Demographic details

Emerson College Polling highlighted a gender gap that could be on the ballot in November. Across the swing states, female voters tend to support Harris, while male voters support Trump. Arizona is the exception, where Trump leads among both men and women.

In Nevada, 52 percent of the male respondents support Trump, with 43 percent supporting Harris. For women, 53 percent support Harris and 43 percent supporting Trump.

Kimball said Harris performs stronger than Biden among Asian voters and young voters, but underperforms his 2020 support among older voters and independents.

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