Presidential race tied and essentially unchanged as it heads into final stretch

Matthew Medsger, Boston Herald on Oct 9, 2024

By clicking submit, I authorize Arcamax and its affiliates to: (1) use, sell, and share my information for marketing purposes, including cross-context behavioral advertising, as described in our Privacy Policy , (2) add to information that I provide with other information like interests inferred from web page views, or data lawfully obtained from data brokers, such as past purchase or location data, or publicly available data, (3) contact me or enable others to contact me by email or other means with offers for different types of goods and services, and (4) retain my information while I am engaging with marketing messages that I receive and for a reasonable amount of time thereafter. I understand I can opt out at any time through an email that I receive, or by clicking here

With less than a month to go before the final ballots are cast, the 2024 Presidential race remains locked in a statistical tie.

According to several national polls released in recent days, Vice President Kamala Harris holds the barest of marginal leads over former President Donald Trump, and is mostly holding steady in essentially the same polling position she’s held for weeks.

In a New York Times/Siena College poll of 3,385 likely voters, considered one of the most reliable surveys, Harris leads Trump, 49% to 46%. That poll has a 2.6-point margin of error, according to pollsters.

“While the Times/Siena poll shows some solid advantages for Mr. Trump, the results suggest Ms. Harris is making gains, if small ones, on questions about temperament, trust and change that can be critical in a presidential race,” the Times wrote.

A Reuters/Ipsos survey showed Harris up by two points, 47% to 45%, but down considerably compared to their last September poll, with voters now more concerned about the cost of living than any other issue.

“The survey shows a tightening of the race among likely voters, moving from a small Harris lead in September (+6 Harris), to a statistical tie in early October,” Ipsos wrote.

A Yahoo News/YouGov poll found Harris up by two points in a head-to-head field, but leading by just one point if the ballot includes third-party options. Their last survey, taken right after the debate, showed the vice president ahead by five points.

“All Yahoo News/YouGov surveys released since Harris replaced President Biden atop the Democratic ticket have had a margin of error of about three percentage points — plus or minus — and that the gap between Harris and Trump has remained well within that range. A 48%-46% Harris lead could actually be a 51%-43% Harris lead — or a 49%-45% Trump lead,” Yahoo News wrote of their polling.

According to data presented by polling aggregator RealClearPolitics, Harris has held an average lead of about two points since mid-September. Aggregator 538 shows Harris ahead by 2.6 points, around where she stood through most of September.

Morning Consult’s most recent massive survey of 11,353 likely voters found Harris tied for her September lead of 6 points, 51% to 45%. That poll claims a margin of error of +/- 1%

_____