BALTIMORE — Democrat Angela Alsobrooks and Republican Larry Hogan will meet Thursday in the only scheduled debate in a U.S. Senate contest competitive enough to attract attention and heavyweight donors from both national parties.

In a state in which registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 2-1, Alsobrooks enters the debate at Maryland Public Television in Owings Mills leading Hogan by 48% to 39%, according to a UMBC poll released Wednesday that surveyed likely Maryland voters late last month.

Analysts said the Prince George’s County executive’s advantage, while clearly not insurmountable given Hogan’s popularity and campaign resources, means her principal task in the debate is to avoid memorable gaffes.

Debate participants are like umpires. When they make news, it is usually because of a mistake.

“To me, the only thing that’s going to make this debate really stand out is if Alsobrooks has a big fail,” said Flavio Hickel, an assistant political science professor at Washington College on the Eastern Shore.

He said Alsobrooks’ mantra should be: “Do no harm,” and that Hogan, who served two terms as the state’s governor leaving office in January 2023, may “try and put her in a position where that could happen. I’m not sure exactly what policy issues that would be.”

Campaign spokespeople for Hogan and Alsobrooks declined to comment on debate strategy. The two are vying for the seat to be left vacant by the pending retirement of Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin.

The debate will be moderated by Chuck Todd, chief political analyst for NBC News. Panelists include Jeff Salkin, news anchor with MPT; Alexis Taylor, managing editor at AFRO News; Deborah Weiner, news anchor at WBAL-TV in Baltimore; and Tracee Wilkins, investigative reporter at WRC-TV in Washington.

There is a five-hour gap between the end of the hour-long debate, which begins at 1 p.m., and the taped broadcast.

It will be shown at 7 p.m. Thursday on MPT-HD and will be available at the same time on WBAL-TV and WBAL-AM in Baltimore, and on WRC-TV in Washington, D.C. It will air nationally on C-SPAN at 8 p.m.

Under MPT’s ground rules, media watching a live feed from MPT’s visitors center may report on the debate immediately, including posting on social media.

That means “that both campaigns have a chance to spin it” before viewers have seen the broadcast, Hickel said.

The race is integral to each party’s strategy of securing a Senate majority, allowing them to set the chamber’s agenda and accept or reject judicial nominees.

Democrats hold a 51-49 Senate edge. The party must defend a handful of seats in November in states that Democratic President Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020, plus three others — West Virginia, Ohio and Montana — won by former President Donald Trump, who is again the Republican nominee.

Maryland television stations have been deluged with political ads. On Sept. 23, a pro-Hogan super PAC reserved $18.3 million in ad time, according to the media tracking firm AdImpact.

Alsobrooks’ candidacy has been aided by, among others, the political arm of Emily’s List, which backs abortion-rights women. She has criticized Hogan’s 2022 veto of a measure allowing nurse practitioners and other non-physician medical professionals to perform abortions in Maryland. The Democratic-controlled General Assembly overrode his veto. Following the May primary, Hogan has said that he supports codifying abortion rights in federal law.

Hogan has criticized Alsobrooks for accepting property tax benefits in Washington D.C. for which she didn’t qualify. She has said the error was inadvertent.

Emphasizing a bipartisan, “common sense” philosophy, Hogan is trying to become the first Republican elected to the U.S. Senate from Maryland since Charles Mathias in 1980.

If elected, Alsobrooks would be the state’s first Black U.S. senator and would join a state delegation that is currently all-male.

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