Mozambicans voted Wednesday for a new leader who will need to quell an insurgency that’s stalled massive liquefied natural gas projects with the potential to transform one of the world’s least-developed nations.

There’s little question over the frontrunner: Daniel Chapo, the candidate of the Liberation Front of Mozambique, which has ruled the southeastern African nation since independence in 1975.

The 47-year-old former provincial governor is “all but certain” to beat his three opponents, according to Oxford Economics Africa, while Eurasia Group put the odds of his party securing a two-thirds majority in parliament at 70%.

Long lines of people queued outside polling stations in the northern city of Nacala and voting proceeded smoothly. More than 17 million people registered to cast ballots.

“Let us all join in this moment of celebration, but remain serene and calm so that everything takes place in a spirit of peace and tranquility,” incumbent President Filipe Nyusi said in a posting on Facebook, urging citizens to exercise their democratic rights.

Attacks by an Islamic State-backed group prompted TotalEnergies SE to delay work on its $20 billion LNG project in the northern Cabo Delgado province in early 2021. Patrick Pouyanné, the company’s chief executive officer, plans to visit Mozambique later this month to assess whether the president-elect will continue enlisting Rwanda’s help to maintain security in the area.

Mozambique had hoped that the gas project and an even bigger one proposed by ExxonMobil Corp. would lift millions out of poverty in a nation where nearly three in four people lived on less than $2.15 a day last year. The seven-year insurgency that’s killed thousands is one of the government’s biggest challenges, draining finances and delaying hydrocarbon revenues.

In an interview last week, Chapo said he will wait until he takes office to make a decision regarding Mozambique’s security partnership with Rwanda, which dates back to 2021 and was initiated by Nyusi. Chapo favors starting dialog with the militants in parallel with the military response.

While the possibility of renegotiating deals with multinationals emerged as a key theme during the campaigns, Chapo said Mozambique has always prioritized stability for investors.

His main challenger is Ossufo Momade, president of the Resistência Nacional Moçambicana party, or Renamo.

But the election also has a potential wildcard in former lawmaker Venâncio Mondlane, who is standing as an independent candidate with the Podemos party. He quit the main opposition earlier this year after it blocked him from challenging Momade as Renamo leader.

Mondlane, 50, has drawn thousands of young people to his rallies and hasn’t backed down from confrontation with police while campaigning. He made a name for himself as a firebrand last year, when he led mass protests in the capital, Maputo, after losing the mayoral election, claiming the vote was rigged.

Nyusi secured a second and final term in 2019, winning about 74% of valid votes cast, while Momade garnered less than 22% support.

The median age in Mozambique is about 17 years, one of the world’s lowest. More than 500,000 people join the workforce each year, competing for limited jobs.

The government’s domestic borrowing has more than doubled since 2020, with S&P Global Ratings warning of growing refinancing risks as the LNG projects face continued delays. The International Monetary Fund sees the ratio of total debt to gross domestic product rising to 98% this year.

With corruption rampant and increasing poverty rates, support for democracy within Mozambique has plunged over the past decade. Less than half of citizens favor the system, compared with 63% a decade ago, according to a survey report Afrobarometer published in July.

The 2019 elections drew sharp criticism, including the European Union, whose observers said they detected numerous irregularities including ballot-box stuffing and other forms of fraud.

Eurasia said it expects “small but violent and disruptive protests” in major urban areas after the vote.

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(With assistance from Gordon Bell.)

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