Poll shows double-digit leads for Levin, Harris in California's 49th Congressional District

Phil Diehl, The San Diego Union-Tribune on Oct 7, 2024

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Incumbent Democrat 49th Congressional District Rep. Mike Levin is leading his Republican opponent Matt Gunderson by 12 points, 53% to 41%, according to a poll done by SurveyUSA for The San Diego Union-Tribune and KGTV-10 News.

The survey is based on interviews with 700 likely voters in the district using landlines, smartphones, tablets and other electronic devices Oct. 2 through 6. It shows an increase from Levin’s 10-point lead in June.

Levin, of San Juan Capistrano, seeks his fourth two-year term in Congress. Gunderson owns an Orange County car dealership. The 49th District covers north coastal San Diego County and southern Orange County.

Both candidates’ voters said they are fairly sure of their choice, according to the results, with 85% of Levin voters and 84% of Gunderson voters saying their minds are made up.

Just over half the respondents, 53%, said they had seen campaign ads for the Levin-Gunderson contest. Among those, 30% said ads have made them feel more favorable toward the Democratic incumbent, 19% less favorable, while 49% said the ads had no effect.

Abortion rights is an important issue to the majority of voters in the district. About 54% said a candidate’s position on abortion rights is very important, and 23% said it was somewhat important, 11% said not very important, and 9% said not important at all. Both candidates have said they support a women’s right to choose.

About 77% of Levin voters said abortion rights is a very important issue to them this year, compared to 25% of Gunderson voters.

Vice President Kamala Harris held a slightly stronger lead over former President Donald Trump in the district. The survey showed Harris with a 13-point lead, 54% to 41%. Biden led Trump by just 5 points in June.

Trump leads by a 74-point margin among the 1 in 5 voters who say immigration is the most important issue facing the district, the survey showed.

The largest group of likely voters, 41%, said the cost of living is the most important issue, and those voters preferred Harris by a 19-point margin.

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