Candidates backed by Jair Bolsonaro are pulling ahead in municipal elections that are considered a barometer of political sentiment in Brazil, two years before a presidential vote in which Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will likely seek another term.

The conservative former president, who’s banned from seeking public office until 2030, helped elect on Sunday the mayors of four of the country’s 27 state capitals. He supports a further 14 candidates who are competing in a second-round vote set for Oct. 27.

Candidates supported by Lula won in two capitals, including Rio de Janeiro, and will compete in four more — all of them against Bolsonaro representatives.

Across the country, Brazilians elected 5,518 mayors Sunday and will have to return to the ballot box in three weeks to pick an additional 51 in cities where no candidate received more than 50% of the votes. So far, most winners lean center-right.

The toughest dispute may take place in Sao Paulo, Brazil’s financial capital, where the center-right incumbent backed by Bolsonaro, Ricardo Nunes, is challenged by Guilherme Boulos, the leftist backed by Lula.

They both obtained nearly one-third of the ballots in the first round of an election upset by the emergence of an unpredictable right-wing contestant. Pablo Marcal, who came third with nearly one-third of the votes as well, split Bolsonaro’s electorate while also siphoning votes from Boulos.

Marcal’s participation in the race, using social media tactics similar to those employed by Bolsonaro years ago, upended the campaign and made the result of the vote even more unpredictable.

His defeat is likely to turn the fight for Sao Paulo into a rematch of the Lula-versus-Bolsonaro vote that split Brazilians in 2022.

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