Outside groups spend big on Colorado statehouse races to determine scope of majority Democrats' power

DENVER — Outside committees have spent more than $1.2 million on a handful of Colorado legislative races already this election cycle, highlighting the electoral fights that could determine how much power the majority Democrats will have in the Capitol for the next two years.

The spending, most of it by party-aligned independent expenditure committees, largely targets nine House races and four Senate races throughout the state. Those contests are likely key for Republicans trying to claw back from a historic low point in political power in Colorado — and for Democrats looking to grow their trifecta control of state government.

They would do that by attaining supermajority status in the Senate, as they’ve already done in the House. That threshold, which confers even more control to the majority party, requires winning at least two-thirds of the seats.

The committees’ spending, as tallied in campaign finance reports filed by a deadline earlier this week, sets the stage for the final weeks of the election season — with millions more dollars expected to flood in.

County clerks will start mailing ballots for the Nov. 5 election to voters on Oct. 11.

In the House, where Democrats now have a 46-19 supermajority, the spending — on things like mailers and web and social media ads — shows the party largely playing defense.

New Day Colorado, an independent expenditure committee backing Republican candidates, has spent nearly $330,000 on five House races: District 16, in Colorado Springs; District 19, which straddles southern Boulder and Weld counties; District 25, which covers southern Jefferson County; District 43, in Highlands Ranch; and District 50, in Greeley.

Democrats narrowly won all five seats in 2022, often by razor-thin margins of 750 votes or fewer. Nonpartisan analysis compiled during the state’s 2021 redistricting process show four of the five districts have slight Republican leans, based on prior election results.

To deny the Democrats a supermajority next year, Republicans will need to flip three of the seats while holding on to what they already have.

Republicans playing offense in House races

One of those races, in House District 50, features a repeat of the 2022 contest, with Democratic Rep. Mary Young again defending her seat against Republican Ryan Gonzalez.

She won the seat by 330 votes then — a smaller margin than the votes received by the Libertarian candidate. It’s a two-person race this go-around, however.

In District 19, former state Rep. Dan Woog, a Republican, hopes to reclaim the seat he lost in 2022 to Erie Democrat Jennifer Parenti. Parenti, who won by about 1,500 votes, announced in July that she would not seek reelection, leaving defense of the seat to vacancy committee selection Jillaire McMillan.

McMillan, who’s been the nominee for about two months, enters the homestretch of the race with about $39,000 in cash on hand in her own campaign account — bolstered by a $20,000 loan she made to her campaign — compared to Woog’s $63,000.

On the Democratic side, the independent expenditure committee Colorado Way Forward spent nearly $220,000 between Sept. 12 and Sept. 25 to boost Democrats in eight races.

Those include all of the races targeted by the Republican committee, except for the McMillan-Woog contest. The Democratic committee is also looking to boost Democrats in District 26, in northwest Colorado; District 28, in the southwest part of metro Denver; District 46, in Pueblo County; and District 59, in southwest Colorado. All of those seats have slight Democratic leans, according to the redistricting analysis, and Democrats won them all by more than 2,000 votes in 2022.

Colorado Way Forward has received $200,000 from Rocky Mountain Planned Parenthood; $100,000 from the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees; $100,000 from affiliates of Education Reform Advocacy; and $50,000 from the Environmental Defense Fund.

The Republican-aligned New Day Colorado committee has reported receiving $77,500 from Phillips 66 and $52,500 from Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, among other donors.

Democrats aim for new Senate supermajority

In the Senate, four seats have drawn particular attention from independent expenditure committees — all currently held by Republicans. Democrats would need to flip one, while holding on to their current seats, to win a supermajority in the chamber.

With that status, they potentially could override vetoes, stack committees even more in their favor and, perhaps most important, refer constitutional measures to the ballot on a party-line vote.

The Senate Majority Fund, which spends to boost Republicans, has zeroed in on three races: District 5, on the central Western Slope; District 6, in southwest Colorado; and District 13, which runs from Henderson northeast to Greeley. The committee has spent about $310,000 on those races so far.

Only one of those seats, District 6, features an incumbent. Republican Sen. Cleave Simpson hopes to hold on to the seat over Democratic challenger Vivian Smotherman. The district has a very slight Democratic lean, according to the redistricting analysis.

In District 5, Republican Rep. Marc Catlin hopes to move to the upper chamber by beating Democrat Cole Buerger. District 13 is ranked as the most Republican in the group — indeed, its current senator, Kevin Priola, represented that party for most of his legislative career. He switched to Democratic affiliation ahead of the 2022 election and is now term-limited.

All Together Colorado, the Democratic-aligned independent expenditure committee for Senate races, so far has targeted only the Buerger-Catlin race among those four. But it also has expanded the battleground — and has directed most of the $210,000 it has spent so far — to include the race for District 12 in western El Paso County.

There, Democratic state Rep. Marc Snyder hopes to defeat Republican Stan VanderWerf in the bid to replace the term-limited Sen. Bob Gardner, a Republican.

Notably absent from the list of targeted districts is what could be one of the tightest Senate races in the state, in District 16, which covers southwest metro Denver. It holds near-zero partisan advantage for either Democrats or Republicans, according to the nonpartisan redistricting analysis.

This is the first election held for the seat since boundaries were redrawn.

The two candidates vying for the seat, incumbent Democratic Sen. Chris Kolker and Republican Robyn Carnes, have their own campaign chests to lean on. Kolker ended September with more money on hand than any other Senate candidate — and, indeed, any legislative candidate — with $146,000. Carnes had the fourth-highest stash of all Senate candidates, with $84,000.

In all, Democratic Senate candidates reported about $834,000 in cash on hand to Republicans’ $589,000.

All Together Now Colorado, the Democratic committee, reported that most of its money this cycle came from similar sources to the Democratic House committee, though it also reported receiving $50,000 from Occidental Petroleum and $60,000 from the dialysis company DaVita. DaVita was formerly run by Kent Thiry, a Colorado political activist now bankrolling the campaign to transform how elections in the state are run.

The Senate Majority Fund reported receiving more than $1.3 million from GOPAC, a federal committee that in turn reports that most of its money comes from GOPAC Inc., an organization that trains and educates Republican candidates and activists. The committee also reported receiving $55,000 from Occidental Petroleum, $170,000 from Chevron and $75,000 from the Sports Betting Alliance.

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