Is Harris more at risk from third party candidates than Trump? What new poll suggests

New polling shows a majority of voters think the country needs a third political party, but significantly more Democrats than Republicans feel this way. Could that spell trouble for Kamala Harris in what’s expected to be a tight election?

The new Gallup poll, released Oct. 1, found that 58% of surveyed Americans — that includes Democrats, Republicans and non-affiliated independent voters — believe the current parties “do such a poor job” of representing the public that a third party is needed.

This isn’t unusual, as Gallup points out, it’s the 12th year in a row a majority of voters have expressed their desire for a true third option in our two-party system. But a closer look at the numbers also suggests a possible danger for the Harris campaign in particular.

Though Harris’ candidacy has electrified the left’s base in a way that President Joe Biden didn’t, the new poll shows a growing number of Democrats still hunger for a third party. Last year, less than half of Democrats polled, 46%, said they want a third party. But that number increased seven percentage points this year, to 53%.

The Gallup poll, which surveyed 1,007 adults between Sept. 3 and Sept. 15 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4%, shows Republicans are less supportive of a third party or third party candidate than Democrats, with 48% expressing their support compared to Democrat’s 53%.

These findings are flipped from what Gallup reported in 2023, when a strong majority of Republicans, 58% of them, said they wanted an alternative.

That 10-point shift among Republicans coincides with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ending his presidential run as an independent and endorsing Trump, Gallup said, suggesting a good portion of Republicans who may have preferred RFK Jr. over Trump reverted to their party’s chosen candidate.

With support for a third party going down on the right and rising on the left, it appears that Democrats aren’t as happy with their candidate as Republicans are with theirs, meaning Harris’ campaign may be more vulnerable to losing votes to third party competitors than Trump.

But only paying attention to the left and the right misses an important piece of the picture — independent voters.

“Why do Democrats and Republicans have differential views about the need for a third party? Depends on how satisfied they are with their own party’s candidate,” Paul Beck, an emeritus political science professor at the Ohio State University, told McClatchy News in an email. “And, when we talk about third parties we need to include independents, who have won contests in states such as Maine and, maybe this year Nebraska.”

Third parties’ impact on election outcomes

But when you look at historical results, despite voter dissatisfaction, one shouldn’t expect a lasting third party to establish itself any time soon, experts say

“Voters are venting their frustration with the current political situation and it will not translate into political change unless political leaders interested in a third party organize such a party in all 50 states to compete successfully in state and local elections as well,” Robert Shapiro, professor of government at Columbia University, told McClatchy News.

But third parties can and sometimes do make an impact on election outcomes. With a number of independent competitors still in the race and on ballots in swing states with razor thin margins, both Harris and former President Donald Trump stand to lose a small but meaningful number of votes.

“Such third parties could siphon off votes from the major parties that can tip an election in a state — in the key battleground states as we say with (Ralph) Nader and (Jill) Stein in 2000 and 2016, respectively,” Shapiro said.

Stein, a Green Party candidate, drew the ire of many on the left who blame her for Hillary Clinton’s loss to Trump in 2016, citing the closeness of voting in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Stein also happens to be running this year and is on the ballot in all but 11 states, according to her campaign’s website.

But third party candidates are more than just obstacles to victory for the two mainstream candidates.

“Americans continually have had reservations about the two-party monopoly on our politics, with calls for a third party. Occasionally, those calls have been widespread, such as in 1912 (before public opinion polls could confirm what the third party votes showed) and 1992 (when the INDEPENDENT Perot received about 20% of the vote and a third of voter support earlier in the presidential campaign),” Beck told McClatchy.

There are a few issues that always hold third parties back, or prevent them from getting their feet off the ground at all, he says.

“First, Americans do not agree on what ideological ‘flavor’ that third party should be, which destines support for any particular third party to be less than a call for a generic third party,” Beck said.

Then there’s the fear among voters that casting their ballot for a third party candidate is just betting on a horse that can’t win.

“Thus, support for a third party or independent candidate dwindles from early campaign polling to the final vote results,” Beck said. “Still it can be sufficient in a close election contest, such as in 2024, to determine the result by taking votes away from the major-party candidate who might win otherwise.”