Dean of California GOP faces a tight rematch

WASHINGTON — Even in an era of declining rates of violent crime nationwide, Republicans continue to bash Democrats on the issue. But a former federal prosecutor campaigning in a purple-tinged district in Southern California is striking back.

Democrat Will Rollins, making his second run against Republican Rep. Ken Calvert in California’s 41st District, is leaning heavily on his background as an assistant U.S. attorney prosecuting drug dealers, sex offenders, gang associates and a Jan. 6 defendant. He has portrayed Calvert as an entrenched conservative with questionable ethics who is politically out-of-step with an increasingly diverse district.

Calvert, the longest-serving Republican in the California delegation, is an appropriator and has highlighted his ability to secure more than a billion in federal funds for projects in the district. He is currently the chairman of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, a high-profile perch. His campaign rejects allegations of corruption, saying the claims were investigated and dismissed years ago, and accuses Rollins of inflating his law enforcement credentials to win votes.

The race is one of several key campaigns in California that could determine which party controls the House. A poll released last week by researchers at the University of Southern California, California State University Long Beach and Cal Poly Pomona found the contest a literal dead heat, with each candidate receiving support from 46% of likely voters.

“This is one of the most exciting races in the state and in the country,” said lead pollster Christian Grose, a political scientist at USC.

District boundaries

In a district former President Donald Trump would have won by 1 percentage point in 2020, had the current boundaries been in place, the poll is a warning sign for Calvert, Grose said.

“It’s a district that just leans a little bit Republican,’’ Grose said. A GOP politician as well-known as Calvert “should probably [be leading] by 3 or 4 points, but he’s not.” The race is rated Tilt Republican by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales.

The 41st District encompasses most of Riverside County, including the fast-growing suburbs of Corona and Lake Elsinore. Democrats say young families shut out of the expensive Los Angeles and Orange County housing markets are moving to the district, and reshaping its politics.

But according to Republicans, the biggest driver of the changing partisan makeup was redistricting, which traded Republican-leaning communities for Palm Springs, a progressive enclave with one of the nation’s largest LGBTQ+ populations. In 2022, the first election under the new map, Calvert won by about 11,000 votes — a fairly close margin for a politician who had grown accustomed to racking up double-digit wins for most of his nearly 32-year career in Congress.

In the final, critical sprint to Election Day, Rollins is leaning into his message as a tough-on-crime Democrat. “It resonates across party lines,’’ he said in an interview.

“Most of us don’t want to defund the FBI because we want bank robberies and cartels investigated. Most of us believe in our jury system, and it’s dangerous to have people who undermine that,’’ Rollins added. “Moderate Republicans who used to be in a party that stood for law and order are acutely aware that there are members of Congress that are willing to give a get-out-of-jail-free card to Donald Trump for political reasons.’’

Rollins is gay and has criticized Calvert’s past opposition to LGBTQ+ civil rights, but the issue hasn’t garnered the attention this year that it did when Calvert and Rollins first faced one another in 2022.

Instead, Rollins is focused on his record of helping to prosecute a drug trafficker associated with the Sinaloa crime cartel, a Los Angeles doctor who fraudulently sold pain pills and an adjunct professor at UCLA who was involved in illegally exporting semiconductor chips to China, among others.

It’s a strategy he said he hopes will win over independents and even some Republicans who have grown weary of Trump’s rhetoric. Democrats, Rollins said, “should be on offense when it comes to public safety, especially when the other side of the aisle is demonizing federal law enforcement officers.”

Rollins said he sees echoes of his campaign in the battle between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. “Having a prosecutor at the top of the ticket helps a former federal prosecutor downballot, because the prosecutor-versus-felon theme aligns very closely with our theme,’’ Rollins said.

Law and order

Calvert, who has endorsed Trump, has sought to turn the tables on Rollins, portraying him as an out-of-touch liberal who walks in lockstep with Harris and California’s Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. An early ad by the Calvert campaign calls Rollins “pro criminal.”

“This race is a choice between someone who has consistently worked across party lines to get big things done for Riverside County, and a LA liberal who’s going to double down on all the failed policies of Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris,’’ Calvert said in an email. “There’s no one else who has the experience, the relationships or the proven record of delivering that I do for this district.”

Rollins is touting his endorsement from the Palm Springs Police Officers Association, which backed Calvert two years ago. “Will was a federal prosecutor and he understands the dynamic of our job and how difficult it is,’’ Sgt. Michael Torres said in an interview. Torres, along with several colleagues, appears in a new ad supporting Rollins.

However, Calvert has been endorsed by more than a half dozen local and national law enforcement groups.

Moreover, Calvert’s campaign contends that Rollins has exaggerated his criminal justice experience and misled voters about Calvert’s ethics.

“Will Rollins lied about being a counterterrorism attorney, lied about prosecuting the Sinaloa Cartel and lied about his extreme record as a prosecutor, so it’s hardly any surprise he’s lying about Ken Calvert, too,’’ said Calvin Moore, a spokesman for the Calvert campaign. “The Ethics Committee long ago dismissed every single one of Rollins’ lies and it’s a shame Rollins has chosen to stoop to this level of gutter politics to prop up his ridiculous campaign. Then again, considering Rollins’ agenda would raise gas prices, gut Prop 13 protections, let criminals free and open our borders, it’s easy to see why he’d want to talk about anything other than what he’d actually do in Congress.”

In August, the group End Citizens United filed an ethics complaint against Calvert for failing to disclose ownership of certain properties, alleging that some of his earmarks could increase the value of those properties. He faced similar questions in the past but in 2007, the House Ethics Committee cleared Calvert of any potential wrongdoing.

The district has a close partisan divide, so it is no surprise each campaign has reached out to voters in the other party for an edge. Registered Republicans made up 36.99 percent of the district’s registered voters, while Democrats comprise 36.28 percent of the electorate, according to statistics collected last month by the California Secretary of State.

“I’m able to deliver results for Riverside County in Congress because of my experience, determination, and willingness to work in a bipartisan manner to tackle even the toughest problems,’’ Calvert posted on X last month.

One of Rollins’ ads features the story of his grandparents, conservative California Republicans who owned a business and revered former California Gov. and President Ronald Reagan.

“I think part of my philosophy of running in [a] purple seat is not to demonize all Republican voters, because they’re not monolithic,’’ Rollins said. “A lot of them have huge problems with Ken Calvert. They have huge problems with Donald Trump. They also have huge problems with the Democratic Party, which I get.”

But Republicans say Rollins’ move to the middle is a political ploy.

“Will Rollins is soft on crime and hard-core on deception,’’ said Ben Petersen, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. He called Rollins “a Hollywood-style con artist who will say or do anything to cover up his extreme liberal record.”