Polls show tight presidential race even as Harris takes slight swing-state lead

Matthew Medsger, Boston Herald on Oct 2, 2024

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Of the seven swing states which will likely decide who gets to sit in the Oval Office at the end of next January, most are now leaning toward Vice President Kamala Harris, though the race remains locked in a dead heat.

Although the surveys show former President Donald Trump trailing by less than the margin of error, Cook Political Reporter now lists Harris as ahead in a multicandidate field in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump still maintains a slight — within the margin of error — lead in Georgia.

Overall, Cook says Harris leads Trump 49% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup, and by 49% to 47% in a field that includes third-party options.

“Underneath the topline numbers, though, there have been some significant shifts, most notably Trump’s slipping advantage on his two strongest issues — inflation and immigration,” Cook wrote of their poll.

The Vice President, according to the pollsters, hasn’t escaped her own downward trends in support. Cook found Independents now lean left by just a two-point margin, down from an eight-point split found in August.

Despite the shift among Independents, for the first time this election cycle most voters think the Democratic party will retain the White House, according to Cook.

“A plurality of swing state voters now think that a Democrat will win the presidential election. This month, 46% of voters think Harris will win, compared to 39% who think it will be Trump. That represents an 11-point swing in Harris’ favor since August, and suggests that Harris has been successful in presenting herself as a serious candidate, while Trump’s attempts to portray her as unable to do the job have not been effective,” they wrote.

If Cook’s polling proves accurate — and Trump doesn’t slip in any other battleground jurisdictions — Harris could take the electoral college 303 to 235. A candidate needs 270 electors to win the White House.

An Economist/YouGov national poll of more than 1,200 likely voters also released on Wednesday found Harris up by three points in a multicandidate field, within the 3.1-point margin of error.

A Susquehanna Polling and Research survey of 1,001 likely voters shows the Vice President ahead by five points, just outside that poll’s 3.2% margin.

Morning Consult’s massive weekly national survey of more than 11,000 likely voters showed the same rightward shift among Independents found by Cook, but it also found that isn’t enough to put Trump ahead.

“Harris leads Trump by 5 percentage points among likely voters, 51% to 46%, matching her advantage last week. Trump has seen a bit of an improvement in his numbers among independent likely voters, while Harris’ position is bolstered by some of her best numbers to date among those who voted for President Joe Biden in the 2020 election,” they wrote.

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