With Harris in the race, Trump's lead in South Carolina has shrunk, new poll shows

COLUMBIA, S.C. — Former President Donald Trump maintains a solid grip on South Carolina ahead of the Nov. 5 election and remains the favorite to carry the state’s nine electoral votes, according to the latest Winthrop University poll.

However, his lead in the state has dropped since the last time Winthrop polled on the presidential race.

Trump, the Republican nominee, holds a 52-42% lead over Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris in the poll conducted from Sept. 21-29 of 1,068 likely voters.

The lead is outside of the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

In February, however, Trump had a 50-35 lead among registered voters over President Joe Biden in the Winthrop University Poll.

“I feel good about where we are right now. Trump winning by double digits is about what we expect,” said S.C. GOP Chairman Drew McKissick.

The increase in support for Harris signals a growth in enthusiasm for the Democratic ticket after Biden stepped aside from the election and allowed his vice president to become the nominee.

Trump won South Carolina in 2016 by 14 percentage points and in 2020 by more than 11 points. With him at the top of the ticket in 2020, Republicans gained an 81-43 advantage in the State House, a 30-16 advantage in the state Senate, and flipped the 1st Congressional District red.

In 2022 when Gov. Henry McMaster defeated Democratic nominee Joe Cunningham by nearly 18 percentage points, Republicans gained an 88-36 supermajority in the state House. That was also the first election after the 2021 redistricting.

In 2008, President Barack Obama only lost South Carolina by 9 points to U.S. Sen. John McCain. Democrats picked up two state House seats.

Support for the top of the ticket is important in South Carolina with the prevalence of straight-party ticket voting. Republicans have consistently improved their straight party ticket voting performance since 2016.

Despite the smaller margin, McKissick said he doesn’t believe Republicans will lose seats in the state Legislature.

“I don’t know exactly where that number is going to be, but I expect a big win for us on straight-ticket voting and that’s going to be helpful to all of our candidates up and down the ballot,” McKissick said.

During an interview in August, state Democratic Party leaders said a closer margin in South Carolina would mean more Democratic voters are showing up.

Although Democrats don’t envision either chamber flipping blue in November, they’re looking to take back seats they lost in the 2022 midterm elections, especially four seats that were held by Black Democrats that flipped Republican.

“They’re predominantly African American seats that we lost in ‘22 with a underwhelming top of the ticket,” said South Carolina Democratic Party Executive Director Jay Parmley. “Just take those seats. If our regular voters show up, and even our infrequent voters show up, those are not districts that have enough Republican voters in a wave election to keep the seat.”

Other highlights from the Winthrop University poll

Gov. Henry McMaster’s approval rating is at 45% in the poll among the general public. Only 30% disapprove of his performance.

“While nearly a quarter of the general population are unsure of their opinion on Gov. McMaster, he is very popular among those confident enough to form an opinion,” said Scott Huffmon, the director of the Winthrop poll. “Additionally, Gov. McMaster’s support among South Carolina’s Republicans is extremely high.”

McMaster’s approval rating is higher than that of U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, who had a 44% approval rating, and U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, who had a 36% approval rating.

Among other poll findings:

▪ 51% think Trump’s conviction in the New York hush money case was politically motivated.

▪ 57% believe Trump committed all or some of the crimes for which he was convicted.

▪ 42% sympathize more with the Israelis in the ongoing fighting in the Middle East; 17% sympathize more with the Palestinians; 35% are not sure.

▪ 56% believe the Civil War was more about slavery than it was about states’ rights or any other issue.

▪ 62% correctly answered South Carolina was the first state to secede from the Union; 27% said it was another state while 11% did not know.

“The fact that over one-third of South Carolinians cannot correctly report that we were the first state to secede from the Union shows either a lack of knowledge of, or lack of engagement with, our state’s history among a notable percentage of the population,” Huffmon said. “That said, the significant majority, more than six out of ten, were able to answer the question correctly.”