Swinging for the fences in Virginia swing seat race

STAFFORD, Va. — Rep. Abigail Spanberger has held Virginia’s 7th District seat for three terms, outlasting other Democrats elected to swing seats in the 2018 “blue wave” with her reputation for bipartisanship. But with Spanberger leaving the House as she makes a 2025 gubernatorial run, both parties are invested in winning the competitive Piedmont region-based seat.

Holding onto open seats like Spanberger’s will be key for Democrats as they try to win back the majority in the November elections, and could provide a cushion for a Republican Party that has a tiny margin of error in its current majority.

Democrats are defending four open battleground seats next month that are prime pickup opportunities for Republicans looking to flip seats to grow their majority without challenging better-known incumbents.

This year’s race pits Democrat Eugene Vindman, a former National Security Council official who played a role along with his twin brother Alexander in former President Donald Trump’s first impeachment proceedings, against Republican Derrick Anderson, a retired Green Beret and attorney who previously lost a GOP primary for the seat. The pair is set to meet Wednesday for a debate after meeting in recent forums.

A recent Ragnar Research Partners poll on behalf of Anderson’s campaign found Vindman and Anderson tied at 43%. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race as a toss-up.

Anderson polling evenly with Vindman comes despite the Democrat’s cash advantage. At the end of June, Vindman had $2.3 million on hand, while Anderson had $461,000. Both campaigns are set to report their third-quarter fundraising numbers by Oct. 15.

Outside groups have also started to spend in the district. House Majority PAC, which is aligned with House Democratic leaders, has spent $521,000 on the race as of Sept. 30, while its Republican counterpart, the Congressional Leadership Fund, has spent $100,000 on the race, according to its own FEC filings. Americans for Prosperity Action has spent to support Anderson, while Casa in Action PAC is supporting Vindman. A group called Patriots for a Brighter America is also opposing Vindman.

While meeting voters on the first day of early voting last month, Vindman talked to a crowd assembled in Stafford County about protecting abortion rights, a topic he’s criticizing Anderson on in ads, and attacked Project 2025, saying the proposed platform from the Heritage Foundation think tank is a top issue for voters concerned about the elimination of Social Security benefits, reducing veterans benefits and targeting civil servants working for the federal government.

“These are the issues that are seizing the voters. These are the issues, along with abortion, that are going to make the difference, and that is why we’re winning and we’re going to continue to win,” Vindman said.

To the suburbs and beyond

The 7th District is home to one of the largest populations of federal employees nationwide, stretching over several counties that are part of the greater suburban and exurban Washington, D.C., area. It includes Prince William, Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, as well as rural areas ranging from the Potomac River to the east to mountain areas in the west.

Anderson was also making the rounds on a recent Friday as early voting kicked off, greeting supporters in a handful of counties. Anderson has emphasized affordability and inflation, two issues Republican candidates nationwide are emphasizing.

Virginians at the polls on the first day of early voting offered a variety of positions as they answered whom they were supporting.

Rebecca Adamson, who was at the Stafford County early voting location, said she was supporting Vindman because she was “voting with my values.”

“I think he’ll bring a lot of integrity. I think he really understands foreign affairs,” she said. “He shows he stands for integrity.”

Judy Basinger, who was voting early in Stafford for Anderson, said inflation and illegal immigration were her top issues when deciding whom to vote for. She said she’d encouraged his campaign to spend more time in the county.

“We need our legislature changed. It’s wrong right now and going the much wrong way,” she said. “We need a change. We need to bring Virginia back,” adding that she hoped Republican Senate candidate Hung Cao would defeat Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine. Inside Elections rates the Virginia Senate race as Solid Democratic, so a Cao win would signal something akin to a GOP landslide.

Homestretch attacks

As the campaign enters the home stretch, each side is latching on to lines of attack that have less to do with policy but which they hope will catch some attention.

Democrats have ridiculed Anderson in recent days after The New York Times reported that he posed with the wife and daughters of an old friend for yet-unused campaign footage, but is used on his YouTube page and on a National Republican Congressional Committee website.

Candidates will often utilize their family members in campaign ads and materials. Vindman’s campaign recently released an ad featuring his wife, Cindy, who says “he’s a good man, and he’ll always do what’s right.” Anderson has often mentioned his family on social media and announced his engagement there last month.

Anderson, meanwhile, used a press conference on Monday to call on Vindman to release a form that would show more information about his military career, such as when and where he served and his rank.

“Yevgeny Vindman is intentionally inflating his military resume. He doesn’t need to, but he is,” he said, using Vindman’s legal name. “There are questions, so there needs to be answers.”