New poll reveals what younger, older NC voters think about president and governor's races

A new poll from AARP shows that economic issues are most important to North Carolina voters older than age 50, the state’s most active voters.

The same poll shows younger voters, women and Black voters helping push Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein to a double-digit lead in the governor’s race, even before the scandal over the past week involving Stein’s Republican opponent, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.

Poll results also show where voters of all ages stand in the presidential race and attorney general’s race.

Here are the key takeaways from the poll results:

NC governor’s race

In the race for governor, Stein has a double-digit lead over Robinson, as other polls have also shown. The poll was completed in mid-September, just a few days ahead of the news last week of the bombshell allegations in a CNN story that Robinson posted racist, antisemitic and vulgar posts on a pornography website, which Robinson denies. Nearly all his campaign staff quit on Sunday.

Poll results show:

—Stein has a 10-point lead, with 52% of voters.

—Robinson has 42% of voters.

—Voters younger than 50 give Stein a 19-point lead, while Stein has just a 3-point lead with voters older than 50.

—Stein also leads by 17% among women voters and independent voters.

—Stein also has a 71-point lead among Black voters. If Robinson wins, he would be the first Black governor of North Carolina.

Economic issues most important to voters older than 50

The poll also asked voters older than age 50 what were the most important issues driving their votes.

Social Security was the top issue with 84%, followed closely by Medicare, then “policies to help seniors live independently at home as they age.”

Those top three issues were followed by the cost of utilities, the cost of prescription drugs and the cost of housing.

Turnout factor of older voters

The News & Observer reported in 2020 that voter turnout for those age 66 and older was at 84%. For voters ages 41-65, turnout was 82%. The turnout percentages decrease by age group, with the youngest voters, age 18-25, having 60% turnout in the 2020 general election. All those turnout numbers increased since the 2016 general election.

The data from 2020 also showed that 81.6% of Republicans voted in 2020 compared to 75.1% of Democrats and 69.8% of unaffiliated voters.

What the pollsters point out

Bob Ward of Fabrizio Ward and Jeff Liszt of Impact Research, the two polling firms that conducted the poll for AARP, have done polls in all the battleground states. Liszt said past evidence shows that North Carolina voters will split their tickets and not vote along party lines.

For independent voters especially, Ward said, issues and personalities of candidates can sway them in downballot races. Looking specifically at older votes, Social Security is their biggest issue, he noted, more so than abortion. That Social Security priority is driven by older Black voters, he said.

Immigration is a top issue for many voters, and Ward noted that is driven by older Republican voters.

Liszt pointed out that caregivers polled show they favor Trump by 9 points, Stein by 8 points, and are about even for the attorney general’s race.

With Stein having such a large lead against Robinson, is it possible Robinson could win?

While it’s possible, Ward acknowledged, it is “not likely.”

The backdrop of all this, Ward said, is that “it is still the economy that’s really important.”

“Economic issues really are the backdrop of 2024,” Ward said. Liszt said he “absolutely” agrees.

NC attorney general race

With Stein running for governor, the attorney general seat is open. Both major party candidates are current members of Congress: U.S. Rep. Jeff Jackson, a Democrat, and U.S. Rep. Dan Bishop, a Republican.

—Jackson has a small lead, with 47% of voters.

—Bishop trails by a few points at 43%.

—But 10% of voters polled said they were still undecided.

—Voters age 50 and older lean 5 points in favor of Bishop.

—Jackson’s lead overall is due to leading by 15 points with voters younger than 50.

Presidential race: poll of NC voters

The polls shows that the contest for North Carolina’s electoral votes in the presidential race is “extremely competitive.”

—Former President Donald Trump has 48% support of likely voters.

—Vice President Kamala Harris has 46%.

—Another 4% of voters are undecided, and 3% support third party candidates.

—Trump has a stronger lead among voters older than 50, and Harris has a strong lead among voters ages 18-34.

—Harris leads women voters, and Trump leads men.

—There is also a significant difference in voters based on college education, with Harris leading college-educated voters and Trump leading non-college-educated voters.

How the polling was done

The poll funded by AARP was from the bipartisan team of Republican polling firm Fabrizio Ward and Democratic polling firm Impact Research.

Pollsters interviewed 1,324 likely voters in North Carolina. That includes a statewide sample of 600 likely voters of all ages as well as an additional 476 likely voters age 50 and older, and an additionally 252 likely voters who are Black and older than 50. People polled were randomly drawn from the state’s voter list. Interviews were done on landline phones, mobile phones and SMS-to-web. The margin of error ranges from plus or minus 3.5% to 4.9%.

You can read the full AARP poll results online at: aarp.org/ncpolling.

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