WASHINGTON — Before news broke that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson was accused of making racist and inflammatory remarks on a porn website, Elon University conducted a poll to learn where North Carolina voters stand on both the presidential and gubernatorial races.

The results of the poll, conducted Sept. 4-13, found the presidential race still too close to call, but that Attorney General Josh Stein, the Democrats’ nominee for governor, had a commanding lead over Robinson, his Republican opponent.

“In the big picture, what happens over the next six weeks in North Carolina could determine who leads the United States for the next four years,” said professor Jason Husser, director of the Elon Poll, in a news release.

“In the small picture in which, accounting for rounding, Harris and Trump are less than one point apart and few undecided likely voters remain, the race down the home stretch for North Carolina’s 16 electoral college votes is now one over inches not yards.”

North Carolina is considered a battleground state and one both campaigns consider as part of the path to win the White House.

The Harris and Biden campaigns have devoted time, resources and money into winning North Carolina, and have largely left former President Donald Trump to play catch-up after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and Vice President Kamala Harris took over. While Trump had largely led North Carolina in polls prior to Harris becoming his opponent, Harris’ arrival in the race led to tightening poll results without a clear winner.

Elon’s poll is no different.

A survey of 800 voters, all over 18, found Harris with a 1-point lead over Trump, 46% to 45%, with 4% of voters still undecided. She remains within the margin of error.

When it came to the governor’s race, Stein has a commanding lead over Robinson, 49% to 35%. Nine percent of voters polled remained undecided.

Elon University concluded their poll nearly a week before news broke about Robinson’s alleged internet activity. Robinson denies that he made the posts, which were nearly immediately deleted from the forum and led to a large faction of his campaign team resigning.

The presidential race

Husser told McClatchy in an interview Monday afternoon that what stood out to him the most in the poll results is just how close North Carolina remains.

He said it’s become clear that North Carolina is a 50-50 state, and that the campaigns are trying to exploit gaps that exist where they can.

“It’s led to, I think, a lot of stability and demographic differences between candidates,” Husser told McClatchy Monday afternoon. “And so it really makes it a difficult election to talk about, because we knew it would be almost tied going in, and it still is, and it probably won’t be that different between now and November.”

However, Husser said he’s still waiting for an October surprise that might shake things up. He counts the news about Robinson as one of those “October surprises.”

October surprises refer to major events in political campaigns that shake up a race and can lead to a change in the outcome of an election.

In 2020, a sexting scandal broke involving Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham, and Republican Sen. Thom Tillis went on to win.

Husser listed off several events this campaign season that would have counted:

—President Joe Biden’s first debate against Trump.

—The Democratic Party turning against Biden.

—Biden leaving the race.

—Two attempted assassinations against Trump.

“I would not discount that something else could happen to shift the dynamics of the race at this point,” Husser said.

But Husser added that Trump supporters have stuck by him through many of his own scandals.

In the poll, 45% of North Carolina voters found Trump very unfavorable and 7% found him unfavorable.

But Harris’ results weren’t much better, with 43% of voters with a very unfavorable view, and 6% unfavorable.

Many voters told McClatchy earlier this year that they weren’t happy that their options were either Trump or Biden. Now, with Harris as the nominee for the Democratic Party, 60% of voters said they were happy with the candidates.

When asked if their running mates were an asset or a liability, 43% said the Democratic nominee for vice president, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, was an asset, and 32% said the same of Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, Republicans’ pick for vice president. Another 33% of voters said Vance was a liability.

Polling on policy

Voters were asked which candidate cares more about the issues important to them. Harris came out on top, 47% to 44% — though 9% of the voters polled said neither cared.

Harris surpassed Trump in polling on some key issues:

—Having the most inspiring view of the future.

—Having the right temperament to be president.

—Being more likely to support environmental sustainability.

—Being more likely to choose fair and impartial judges.

Trump led Harris on a few policy issues as well. Voters believed he was more likely to:

—Promote a healthy and growing economy and job creation.

—Support efforts to fight crime and violence.

—Solve difficult issues regarding immigration and border security.

The candidates tied when it came to who would be more respected by other nations and provide a strong voice for world affairs.

Husser said looking at those breakdowns, it’s clear what major issues could push a voter toward or away from a candidate between now and November: a massive economic disaster could push people toward Trump, whereas an international conflict, judicial vacancy or major hurricane could pull people toward Harris.

And when it came to who voters would rather have dinner with, Harris won. But 25% said they would prefer not to dine with either. Only 14% of Democrats said neither, to Republicans’ 29%. Husser said the majority of the total number came from true independents who haven’t decided who to vote for.

The Robinson factor

Questions have been swirling since the Robinson news broke about how it will impact the presidential race. Husser said typically, a scandal like the one Robinson is experiencing would hurt a presidential candidate who has supported him. But that doesn’t appear to be the case, yet, for Trump.

“In a normal time, the Robinson thing would really harm a candidate, particularly if a candidate was running on his or her personal virtues,” Husser said.

But he added, that’s not Trump. In contrast, Husser said, it would have impacted someone like Republican Sen. Mitt Romney or former President George W. Bush.

Race for governor

When it came to the gubernatorial race, Stein led Robinson by 14 points, 49% to 35%. Nine percent of voters still hadn’t made up their minds on who to vote for.

The poll showed Stein leading among male, female, independent and Black voters. Fifty percent of voters polled said they found Robinson very unfavorable.

“I think it’s clear that Robinson is polling far behind Stein,” Husser said.

He said there’s more of a risk of error when a candidate has that large a lead. Still, Husser said a Robinson win seems “extraordinarily unlikely.” He said it would take some kind of “shocking development” to allow him to pull off a win.

“I think, particularly with Robinson, beyond the poll, he’s basically devoid of staff, money now, with not much prospects of getting more money or getting high-quality professional staff,” Husser said.

Election concerns

While many will be clued into the presidential and gubernatorial results, Husser said he believes the most important questions asked were on people’s concerns about the election. Their answers were grim.

Fifty-one percent of those polled said they either aren’t sure or don’t believe that the election will produce a fair and accurate count of the votes cast nationwide. Democrats helped raise the total of voters who said they do.

Additionally, 65% believed both that it was likely that people working on behalf of either of the major presidential campaigns will try to fraudulently change the outcome of this year’s election, and that they could be harassed or intimidated when they went to vote.

When it came to fears of violence breaking out because of the election, the number increased closer to the next president being sworn in. Eighteen percent of voters believed violence could happen before the election, 39% thought it would happen right after the election and 42% believed it could happen around the inauguration.

And 40% of those polled believed Americans will not accept the outcome of the election.

“On worries ranging from violence to election inaccuracy to AI manipulation, we continue to find a wary electorate on edge in North Carolina,” Husser said in a news release. “However, voters indicate that all optimism is not lost, with only 12% referring to America’s future in decline compared to 58% saying difficult or uncertain and 22% saying bright or prosperous.”

_____

©2024 The News & Observer. Visit at newsobserver.com. Distributed at Tribune Content Agency, LLC.